Corn: CZ settled down 2 ½ cents at a 1-month low settlement of $4.54. CZ also posted a one month low at 4.53 ¼. Corn rallied in the overnight session on the 5AM release of the FSA numbers but rejected that action, trending lower the rest of the day. The FSA report came in at 3.573 million acres, increasing 162K acres from August’s estimate at 3.411 million acres. Planted and failed corn acres were at 91.428, increasing 2.657 […]
The FSA at 5 AM released the preventative plant acres adjustment. The USDA uses this data to project s/d figures. They were increased for both corn and beans. This is a non-event and won’t be completely hashed out until Oct. 11th USDA crop report.
Looking at the chart above, its a range trade, with 60 cent swings. $3,000.00 a contract if you have the futures on. After a 50 cent break I can’t get to excited about a 15 cent rally. The acres for beans went to 1.687 vs […]
The old high in DZ futures was 15 522. Today’s high so far 15,511. In retrospect, it would have been nice to have bought it and sat with it. The last trade we risked 100 pts on a sale last week on a sale, simply b/c I felt that it was over done to the upside. Luckily we had stops and took losses.
This morning’s rally was largely credited to Larry Summers officially being out of the race for the next Fed Chairman. How can any
I am not a big believer in flipping in and out of long/ short long / short positions. If […]
The old high in DZ futures was 15 522. Today’s high so far 15,511. In retrospect, it would have been nice to have bought it and sat with it. The last trade we risked 100 pts on a sale last week on a sale, simply b/c I felt that it was over done to the upside. Luckily we had stops and took losses.
This morning’s rally was largely credited to Larry Summers officially being out of the race for the next Fed Chairman. How can any
I am not a big believer in flipping in and out of long/ short long / short positions. If […]
As we digest the market info yesterday: look at bean /corn ratio at 3:1 18 months ago it was at 1.9
Overnight, we tested 14.00 in the beans. One extremely important piece of information. Open interest in Beans jumped 11k in beans and 15K in the corn. This suggests new money coming into that spread which has been a huge winner in the past18 months. I personally thought that it was over done, and due for a nasty correction on a surprise either in the 1) weather or from 2) yesterday’s USDA.
The fact is that trend followers are in the drivers seat, and […]
Beans look to pull up the rest of the grains , in spite of a large 1.533 billion bushel carry in Corn from 2012. The USDA numbers were amazingly close to trade expectations. For the Beans; carry out is a paltry 150 Million bushels 15 below the average trade guess.
As for corn it looks like USDA took usage out of corn. corn carry over advanced from the last crop report. They took out more demand rather than reduce the crop.
The wheat carry over increased. World wheat stock increased 3mmt. Corn stocks world wide advanced. World wide soybean stocks were up 9 million tonnes globally […]
December Dow Futures have now rallied 533 point in three days. From last Friday’s low at 14,692 up to today’s high at 15,222. At this point, I’ve been stopped out of all short specs with buy stops.
Dec Dow looks bound and determined to run up to the 15,500 level we failed at before. This seems like more of an emotional trade than any thing. I also believe there are enough “what if’s ” on the horizon to look for trades to catch the correction.
Of course, we are going to be heading into October in another 2 weeks. That historically has been a dicey […]
Dow comes 1/2 way back. Open the champagne? Or sell it with both hands? I would be interested in selling at 15,190 to 15200. All is well today, apparently, with the Syrian’s decision to let Putin rule the day, by giving them control of their chemical weapons. If you believe that its all wrapped up in a nice package and its done, I would dis agree. I’d be a scale in buyer of puts and seller of futures.
As I drove in this AM, listening to the radio up and down the dial, both conservative, and liberal commentators seemed in agreement that the worse threat […]
Buy SV (October dated) 1300 puts for 7 to 9 cents on a short spec trade.
We never got the rally overnight up to 87 to sell. I like risking 350 to 450 bucks a contract to have unlimited upside for the next 14 days.
Pure and simple, its a fade trade. Fading the funds that are still long. Fading the weather bulls looking for hot and dry or an early frost.
Those bulls may well be correct. I just thing there are too many of them, so I want to fade them.
Worst case? You lose the 450 bucks a contract. Best case? What if beans break […]
If we get a 13.84 print in SX, I’d be a seller. We traded down to 13.34 today and still have a gap below at 31 to fill. Eventually, I believe that gap will be tested. Given the volatile trade in beans and the fact that we are having 50 cent swings ($2500) per contract gains and losses, trading beans is not for the faint hearted. It is imperative that you use protective stops.today’s high at 13.68 was 30 cents from that low. I think there might be one more 25 cent push to squeeze out those who sold it in the hole this morning. […]