Blog Archive

At least 3 well followed analysts are bullish beans in the wake of  not enough rain over the long weekend.  That alone gives me pause.  Secondly,  we were 50 cents higher last night and we couldn’t take out the Sep 12, 2012 high  again at 09 3/4?   We couldn’t do it last week and then promptly sold off.  Today’s high is 08 1/2….    Based on that action and the fact that 1) the funds are still long 100K contracts 2) advisory services are net bullish beans and 3) we have not had a huge uptick in exports yet,  just makes me wonder if this is […]

With weather issues impacting grains and world wide events impacting gold and oil,  it might be the best strategy to get flat and then look at opportunity next week.  We have the Labor Day holiday Monday. A lot of folks are working today and then heading out for a 4 day weekend.

That is my first inclination.  There is too much uncertainty to be putting fresh positions on prior to the long weekend.

For the Sep Dec Corn spread sold at 27,   we covered those at 18 and 17 and were happy to take that profit. 
For the short futures position in CZ from […]

Gold has reached a level where I would rather sell it than buy dips.  Despite the garbage going on in the Mid-east, (and there will always be something teetering on disaster in the mid-east, it seems)  I think at the very least I’d take profits on some longs and raise the trailing sell stops.  A settlement above 1426 opens up the door to 14.50 and then the may high at 1490.
The trend looks decent and I could see that happening. Make sure you raise your sell stops and sit tight.  It might help to turn off the TV so you don’t get too bullish […]

Last week I looked at the Sep Dec  Corn  spread which seemed to have bounced too far too fast.
If you sold that spread, cover at least 1/2 of it here with a 10 cent profit. $500 bucks a contract is a good way to start the week.

The stock indexes still seem over sold here to me.  All that talk in the last 2 weeks looking for a continued 30% correction was a gift to cover shorts.  I have no real opinion on the stock market for now. I could actually see us rallying back to the 15,300 level, setting us up for some type […]

December Gold is what we’re trading now.  August is in delivery and I wouldn’t trade that unless you have the physical product.
December has the volume anyhow, so December is the new option I’ll be using.
High today 1397  Last 1395.  Last night’s low 1368.   What’s interesting is that gold and the stock indexes are both higher.  Typically people like to think that gold is the hedge against stocks, but that isn’t a hard and fast rule and it can haunt you if you get married to that idea.  AM Radio talk show hosts are entertainers,  not traders.  Gloom and doom prepper publications  sell gloom […]

CU/CZ Spread is not for the faint hearted.   We have Sep options expiring tomorrow.  Sep Corn has rallied 46 cents in the last 9 days.  We had been down below 4.55.  There were a ton of Sep outright 5.00 puts that have been run out of contention.   There were 5,000 more puts than calls in Sep.  In my opinion,  Come Monday,  we’ll re-establish the down trend we have been slugging through since September of 2012.  Since the June spike up to 6.10 we dropped 1.55 or 25% in […]