Blog Archive

CZ Short Update: If you sold this 40 cent rally you have 6 cent profit

Posted on by Chris Robinson

If you sold this 40 cent rally,  right now you have a 5 to 6 cent profit. That’s only 250 to 300 bucks a contract.
However,  make sure you manage the position so that this does not become a losing trade ever.  Take some profits or lower you stop so that worse case its a push.

In SX we challenged the 1309 level an broke down to 1283. That’s a decent 20 cent break.  I’d be a scale in seller at 1311 to 1321  Look for those levels to give decent scalping opportunities in a volatile market.

The WZ=CZ spread has bounced back to 174 […]

December Corn Rally’s back 1/2 way.. Bull Trap?

Posted on by Chris Robinson

CZ has bounced 40 1/2 cents in 4 days.   1/2 way back target is $4.87… Above that we get $4.97-$5.00
In my opinion,   this is just a technical correction  If you are a farmer,  sell cash grain into it.   If you have been short corn futures with me,  you should have taken some good profits and still be short from the $5.70 area.  Do you lift it and look to sell it again if we rally to 4.97?  If you do that, you don’t want to be left in the dust on a bull rally trap.   I’d have sell stops below $4.55 again  to re […]

December Corn Rally's back 1/2 way.. Bull Trap?

Posted on by Chris Robinson

CZ has bounced 40 1/2 cents in 4 days.   1/2 way back target is $4.87… Above that we get $4.97-$5.00
In my opinion,   this is just a technical correction  If you are a farmer,  sell cash grain into it.   If you have been short corn futures with me,  you should have taken some good profits and still be short from the $5.70 area.  Do you lift it and look to sell it again if we rally to 4.97?  If you do that, you don’t want to be left in the dust on a bull rally trap.   I’d have sell stops below $4.55 again  to re […]

Gold “breaks out” above 1350– next stop 1394 to 1400?

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Yesterday we had a ton of activity and I am going over positions one by one.  The Dow Short position was/is rewarding.  Tuesday or Wednesday I wrote about Corn trading range choices. Yesterday, we took out the 13.50 level.  While I had been a seller initially there, I had indicated if it moved sharply higher I suggested flipping and going w/ the break out.
Trades like that are dangerous b/c you can get just chopped to bits on a volatile market.  That  being said I am long August gold on this break out. Support is going to remain 1350 b/c it was good resistance for […]

Gold "breaks out" above 1350– next stop 1394 to 1400?

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Yesterday we had a ton of activity and I am going over positions one by one.  The Dow Short position was/is rewarding.  Tuesday or Wednesday I wrote about Corn trading range choices. Yesterday, we took out the 13.50 level.  While I had been a seller initially there, I had indicated if it moved sharply higher I suggested flipping and going w/ the break out.
Trades like that are dangerous b/c you can get just chopped to bits on a volatile market.  That  being said I am long August gold on this break out. Support is going to remain 1350 b/c it was good resistance for […]

Wheat Corn Spread Narrows

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Three days ago I wrote Adios Wheat/Corn spread.  With the FSA acres yesterday, and WZ unable to make much headway from its contract and 14-month lows,  we are at the 1/2 point of the recent trading range which saw spread bottom at 148.50 in July  and rally up the the recent resistance at 2.10.   Consider scale in buying at 173 to 170.  Be willing to run fast though, if it takes out support at 166, and possibly even flip on the short side if that happens. 
Its […]

November Beans rally 95 cent off its 14 month low

Posted on by Chris Robinson

The 14 month low at 11.62 1/2 came on August 7th.  That’s 5 days ago.  We have now rallied 95 1/2 cents from that low.
Upside looks like 12.75 to a re-test of the 12.93 high.  This is the early frost/ its too dry/ we’re all short in the hole/  exports were good  rally.
If you are a producer, I’d sell into it.
If you are a speculator, I’d stand back or sell into anything close to 12.75 with tight stops.

CER

Dow 400 Pts off its recent high

Posted on by Chris Robinson

This is a daily chart of Sep Dow Futures.  If you’ve been following along, I have been suggesting a short position against 15,500 for the past several weeks.  We took 100 ticks of heat, and settled two days above 15,500.  We never got the third day of settlement above 15,500, and because of that, although we still got stopped out of 2/3 of the original position, we are in good shape on the other 1/3.   I even suggested adding to that short position on Monday when I came […]

Gold Trading Range Choices

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Above is a Daily Chart of August Gold.  Its hovering at 1350 resistance.  I’d be a scale in seller at 1342 to 1348.  A settlement above 1350 and I’d flip and get long.  
I’d be a buyer at 1305 to 1300. We seem to be trying to flush out a bottom here, and if you’ve been following along,  I would try to be a buyer at the 1300 level, scale in buying at 1307.
Look to trade this range and then catch the break out
It looks […]

Adios for now for the WZ/CZ corn spread

Posted on by Chris Robinson

If you have been following along, I had suggested buying the WZ/CZ spread at between  180 and 175.  We had a good rally up to almost the 2.10 level. However, there is major resistance at that level if we look at the above chart. Going all the way back to February, for 6 months, the 2.06 to 2.09 level has been a wall of resistance.  I would not want to be long this spread again until we test the 1.80 to 1.70 level once again. If the supply/demand […]