The funds are net short about 120K corn contracts. They continue to be net short Chicago Wheat as well. They are still long about 75K contracts of new crop SX beans. 4.50 is where were are in CZ 6.45 in WZ. SX has bounced back here to the 12.00 level.
I’d remain short CZ. We have been net short against the 5.65 to 5.70 level for quite some time. Roll down protective buy stops and sit tight.
I continue to be short Dow Sep against the 15500 level. We only settled above 15500 3 consecutive days. I was stopped out of about 1/3 of my […]
I am taking the next 10 days off fyi. I have protective stops working in all my positions and my hope is to not read a paper or watch TV or look at my phone for 10 days.
I did take profits on the WZ-CZ spread. bot for 180. sold for 207. Took profits on 1/2 of the position.
Corn: December corn settled down 12 cents at $4.67, which, if you are keeping score is a 33 month low settlement. CZ posted a 33 month low at 4.60. From the contract high of 6.65 posted 9/7/12, today’s low punctuates a $2.01 loss in value, or 30% of its value. Traders turned their noses up at what were good export numbers. Old crop sales were 134,000MT and new crop came in at 1,072,200 MT for a combined 1,226,200 […]
About 10 days ago, I wrote that I liked buying WZ selling CZ. That spread was dancing around 180-175.If you bought it when I recommended, you are starting to get rewarded.
Today the spread moved to 198.Tomorrow,it’s the first of the month. Hopefully, we’ll see new money pour into this spread.I’d be taking profits at $2.05.
November bean chart: When we couldn’t take out 13.00 and make a run above 13.40….. That was a big sign of weakness. When we settled below $12.75 that was the second major sign of weakness. Finally, the trend is lower. If we take out the april low at 11.86….. that opens up another $1.00 to the down side.
For these reasons, I am more comfortable being a seller of rallies, rather […]
Above is a chart of Sep S&;P futures. It could break 100 handles from this level and still be in a bull trend.
This week we have a lot of financial info coming out, culminating with Friday’s Un Enjoyment Report. Although this number is a pale imitation of an imitation of itself compared to Pre-2001, its still a widely followed number. I won’t get into the argument of how it doesn’t represent true un employed. How it doesn’t account for those discouraged workers who have stopped trying for […]
Above is a chart of Sep S&;P futures. It could break 100 handles from this level and still be in a bull trend.
This week we have a lot of financial info coming out, culminating with Friday’s Un Enjoyment Report. Although this number is a pale imitation of an imitation of itself compared to Pre-2001, its still a widely followed number. I won’t get into the argument of how it doesn’t represent true un employed. How it doesn’t account for those discouraged workers who have stopped trying for […]
1) The Sep/Dec corn spread came in again another 2 cents, to go off at 16 cents. Not long ago it was at 42. I believe it could go another 16 cents to “even” with Dec. I do not believe all of the longs are out yet. A good rain forecast over the weekend could push CZ to take out key support at the trend line at 4.75. Sunday night’s trade could be interesting. I do think that since the funds are short corn and wheat, they will put the pedal to the metal and sell more if they get the chance Sunday night.
Currently trading at 15,367. If you are short from an average of 15,500, you have 120 ticks of profit. That’s 1200 bucks per contract. Take some profits on a portion of your shorts. Roll down buy stops on the rest so that your worse case scenario on the balance is a push.
If this is the beginning of the pre August exit to the sidelines, we could get a tasty sell off here. Don’t let a winner turn into a loser.
Support levels to use for profit taking: 15,143: 15,015 and then 14886.
