Blog Archive

If we settle above 14.79, I’d be out of August Bean shorts

Posted on by Chris Robinson

A settlement above resistance at 14.79 would get me out of my shorts.  We’d be taking a 15 cent loss from our sale average at 63. I started selling it at 55 and sold last at 70.  Downside profit objective would be a cover at 14.25.  Trying to make 40. Risking 15.  That’s 4:1 risk reward  I look for.

Today should be interesting.  Crop conditions dropped by just  2 percent. However, funds are long beans and short corn.
They will push their winner long in the beans,  and may have to flip out of their net short corn position.  CZ  could very easily rally back […]

If we settle above 14.79, I'd be out of August Bean shorts

Posted on by Chris Robinson

A settlement above resistance at 14.79 would get me out of my shorts.  We’d be taking a 15 cent loss from our sale average at 63. I started selling it at 55 and sold last at 70.  Downside profit objective would be a cover at 14.25.  Trying to make 40. Risking 15.  That’s 4:1 risk reward  I look for.

Today should be interesting.  Crop conditions dropped by just  2 percent. However, funds are long beans and short corn.
They will push their winner long in the beans,  and may have to flip out of their net short corn position.  CZ  could very easily rally back […]

Short August beans against 1468

Posted on by Chris Robinson

This is a chart of spot beans,  August.
We had a nice buy today here at 14.21.  However, I’d be short here against 1468.  I’d be playing short side until 14.75 level.
This is purely a speculative play.
Good Trading.

PS. The Dow September futures contract is still under 15,425 as I write this.
Maintain shorts.  Have your buy stops in above, in case we pop.

I just think we came too far too fast and are due for a haircut here.

If we settle higher above that 15,500 […]

Dow Trade for Speculator— Could we see 15,800?

Posted on by Chris Robinson

This chart is a daily of the September Dow Index.  As you can see, its at a critical point here.
In just the last 3 weeks, we’ve rallied 959 points from the June 24th low at 14,474.  Last Friday’s high was 15,433… 15,438  on May 28th…..15,448 contract high on May 22…..  If we can SETTLE above 15,530… I believe there’s a 70 to 80 percent chance we trade up to 15,800. 

However,   my position has not changed. Short, with a buy stop in case we take another leg up.
After a 959 pt rally in just 13 days,  I think its over extended.  I’d be […]

Grain Hedging VS Grain Speculating

Posted on by Chris Robinson


Corn: December corn settled down 17 ¾ cents at $5.09 ¼. For the week CZ gained 18 cents. Today’s trade was volatile as we combined a Friday with the last trading day of July futures. July corn traded in a 26 ½ cent range on the screen, with a low tick at 7.00 ½. On the post close in pit trading, with no limits CN traded at $8.00. December posted its high of $5.27 on the pit open at 8:30 AM, headed south and never looked back. When […]

Maintain short September Dow futures against 15,500

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Ok, lets start w/ short position in Dow Sep Futures:  In May 22nd  the high was 15448.  Three days later, the high was 15,438.  June’s low was 14,474 That was a 959 pt trough. a 6% “correction.

Today’s high was 15,433. Based on that action, and the fact that, after watching CNBC last night,  with so many “pro’s”  bullish… I continue to want to stay short.

If you don’t want the future’s margin risk then buy some 15,000 puts and 14,500 puts.   If you are long stocks, the time to buy your down side protection.

One thing I thought was interesting. Not hearing too much from […]

CZ13 Downward Channel

Posted on by Chris Robinson

This downward channel  holds again for CZ.  I just don’t see if there’s a 60 cent bump due to a weather premium.  We have 2 weeks of  weather risk as Corn pollenates.  That’s it.  in 21 years I have seen more bizarre moves.  If we come in on a Monday after a weekend before the end of July, and the temps are 100 degrees and there’s no rain,,, then we can get that pop.

In my opinion, that’s the only thing that could stop CZ from continuing […]

Dow at 15,200 is a sale

Posted on by Chris Robinson

I wrote last Tuesday about my willingness to sell YMU here at 15,200.  Today’ s high is 15249. Last trade as I write this is 15239
Sell it here against the old high at 15,278  (essentially a 15,300 buy stop) 

Sell it .
Turn the machine off and I believe you could pocket at least  a 100 pt profit,  while only risking 70 to 150 pts.
15341 is next resistance… so we should be scale in sellers through this 100 pt range.

Scale in sell.  Put your buy stop in and forget about it.

CER

CZ approaches 5.30 for a 1/2 way back rally sale

Posted on by Chris Robinson

CZ has rallied from 4.90 up to 5.25 in 3 trading days.
my last buy stop was filled yesterday.

I would look to sell this rally in CZ . Today’s high so far was 5.24 1/2.   If we get to 5.28  I’d be scale in seller between 5.28 and 5.34.

 In my opinion, all this is squeezing out the weak shorts who sold CZ at 4.90 last Friday, and are now taking losses to satisfy the margin clerks.

I am a seller of SQ at 15.10 if we get there. We popped above a trend line and old restance at 14.66.
Lets see if […]

Gold Can Not Hold a Rally

Posted on by Chris Robinson

After breaking over 200 bucks an ounce over 3 weeks, one would have looked for at least a 50% pullback. I had 1302 as a sell target and then 1331… August Gold could only manage an $88 rally over 3 days before taking another header here.  1215 traded last, but I have to imaging on Sunday night we take another run at 1200 and then the recent low at 1180.  Adjust your positions accordingly.

CZ settled below 5.00 for the first time in over 2-1/2 years.  While bulls argue the USDA is completely off base to the upside with the acres,  facts are facts. These are […]