Blog Archive

Earlier today I wrote about selling the June Dow futures at the 15,000 level.  Today’s high was 14,980.
If you were a scale in seller between 14950 or higher,  you have a nice profit on a day trade. Currently trading at 14,828 as I write this.  That’s 750 a contract on a mini.
It looks like a lot of people are going in to the holiday short the market.  The only problem I have with that logic is Thursday night or Friday morning, we could have a market gyration made worse by low volume.
We could very easily take a run back up to 15,000 […]

If CZ settles below 4.98 I’d initiate new shorts to add to current winners.   A settlement at 4.98 or lower should open the door to a test of the next low at $4.60.

I believe that the June Dow has good resistance here at the 15,000 level.  Sell it with a reasonable buy stop, but keep it tight.  Up side maybe is up to 15,200… This 15,000 level is a good fulcrum. Nice emotional level. Gives the media something to focus on and therefore draws attention.

The only problem I have with trading stock indexes in July is that we are heading into August.  August […]

Maintain short positions from last 3 weeks or so.  Move your buy stops down at least another 30 cents and guarantee an addional $1500 per contract short.

CER 1:04 CST

Gold found support at 12.00 and is trading today at 12.50.  This AM we were stoppe out at 1200 and 12.25.. Currently I’d have a limit order to sell august gold around the 1300 -1302 level.  1302 would be a 50 % pull back from the recent $242 dollar sell off.

That’s about it for today.
Hope you all took profits on these short positions.

CER

The CZ short position is paying off.
CZ traded back down to the 5.11 low.  Remember 5.71?  Remember the 10,000 July dated 5.50 puts that went off worthless last week?
This market is looking orchestrated by the funds.
The USDA has increased acres of planted corn. up to 97.4 Million acres.  Up from last year.

All the talk about delayed plantings,  3 million to 11 million acres lost…. seems like just another bullish opinion.

We’ll see if we can settle below 5.11.  If we get favorable weather, I don’t see why we dont’ see 4.50 corn.

Adios corn.  Adios wheat.  See what transpires but right […]

On the short position in gold,  cover another 1/3 of short positions here.  Lower stops on the remaining 1/3 of positions.
On a mini gold contract at 30 bucks a tick we’ve taken $2250 on each short contract at this point.

Tomorrow before the USDA, if you are a client call in.
I have 3 spec trades I like in the grains.

CER

September Dow futures trading at 14,500  which is a 2-month low.  I’d not really get friendly or bullish the Dow until we get to 14,313. So for now maintain shorts and sell rallies.
That is all.
CER

Later today, i’ll cover Gold , and the grain complex.

We were very over due for a correction in the stock Indexes.  In the Dow, yesterday’s low of  14,729 was not completely un expected.   We took out the old June 6th low by just 100 pts.
If you go back, I suggested buying that break as well.

I’d be buying breaks, but with very tight sell stops.

We might end up w/ a flush back to 14,400, however, I would definitely take advantage of that break and re-own.

For the bears: The rececent high at 15,523 on May 22nd capped off a little bit of a rally in Dow Futures.

Since 11/15—–3,181 pts

Since 12/28—-2,821  pts

[…]

CZ trading at 5.60,  US dollar going sharply higher and its going to put pressure on commodities.
Take profits on Short from 5.68 and move stops down.  I still want to play CZ from the short side unless we settle above 5.75 two days in a row.

The short position in August Gold turned into a gift. I had put it on when August was trading at 1375, I had thought we would trade down to 1350 or 1340.  I did cover half my stuff between 1350 and 1340.   Luckily we got  a kicker down to 1285 for a bonus on the other half.  […]

If this is a bearish response to Bernanke,  I’d hate to see a bullish one.
We had an intial sell off in the stocks in response to Mr. Bernanke talking today.

As of this writing (2:12PM CST) we are down just 140 pts.  Back in 1998 through 2002 we’d have 300 pt trading ranges regularly.. so I can’t really get upset by one that’s less than 200 today.  And we had 300 pt ranges w/ the average at 10000.   The average is at 15,000 so the percentage swing of a 200pt range is even smaller.
Don’t tell that to the Financial Reporters out there though..It […]

If this is a bearish response to Bernanke,  I’d hate to see a bullish one.
We had an intial sell off in the stocks in response to Mr. Bernanke talking today.

As of this writing (2:12PM CST) we are down just 140 pts.  Back in 1998 through 2002 we’d have 300 pt trading ranges regularly.. so I can’t really get upset by one that’s less than 200 today.  And we had 300 pt ranges w/ the average at 10000.   The average is at 15,000 so the percentage swing of a 200pt range is even smaller.
Don’t tell that to the Financial Reporters out there though..It […]