Blog Archive

The 3 year Weekly Trend line is back in play.  Sell CZ at 5.68.  Cover after 2 consecutive settlements above 5.76.
That is all.
CER

A short term play would be to sell August Gold here at 1375 with a downside target of 13.50.
Puts a buy stop above today’s high at 1385.

For the Dow June,  take profits on 1/3 of remaining long position here at 15,250 level.  I still think we can see 15,500 or higher, but take profits now to ring cash register.

November Beans look to possibly test 12.75.  I’d be a scale in buyer between here and 12.60.  12.60 would be a level to own.  Risk 15 cents. 

Those are 3 trades I am looking at today.
CER

We have a trend line on the daily charts for CZ with 4 hits.
We really have to settle above 5.50 to get bullish.  I’d be selling this rally.
That’s about it.

I have maintained longs in the Dow we bought 8 trading days  ago.  I still think 15,400 is the next upside target.  However,  make sure you have sell stops to protect profits.

November New Crop Beans  did not like falling below 13.00.  Round numbers are always good plays.  Half the crowd gets bulled up,  half the crowd gets bear ed up.   The move through that round number is generally goosed by the wrong […]

The Bull camp once again took it on the chin.
If you have been short CZ w/ me since last Friday, cover another 1/3 of your shorts here.
USDA lowered the carryout slightly.  There will continue to be bullish camp saying gov is wrong.
For now, I’m keeping it simple and resepecting that 3 year old trend line on the weekly chart in CZ13.

We did get stopped out on the original idea.  However,  I put it back on last Friday. 
Maintain the shorts.  Lower your stops.  Let it breathe.

1.9 Billion bushel carryout. No major change

Our share of exports has dropped.  Exports […]

I sold CZ on the close Friday.  CZ at 5.57.  Today’s low was 5.40. I covered 1/3 this morning at 47.  I covered the other 1/3 on the close here at 5.44.  I am holding the other 1/3 tonight.  Planting progress came in within expectations.  The 6-10 day forecast looks friendly with non-threatening weather.

I continue  to hear from farmers in Southern Il and western Iowa who are too wet, and therefore very bullish.
I continually remind them that we plant corn nation wide.  Don’t get caught up in marketing based on the view from your kitchen window.

The gold trade:  I’d still want to […]

Its 3:3r CST.  June Futures for Dow posted a high so far at 15,249.  You should still be long 2/3 of your position after taking profits on the 1/3.

As for June gold,  it is 35 bucks lower and seems to have turned its nose up at the 1400 level.  1377 is today’s low, but given the rally in stocks and the failure to hold 1400 as we end the week,  this can’t be characterized as bullish chart action for gold.  This is a 3 week low settlement,  and a bearish hook reversal on the weekly chart for gold.  1400 will continue to be a […]

I had suggested buying a break down to 14830.  The low tick yesterday was 14,835.  Currently trading at 15,186.    351 points from bottom to top.
If you follow my letter, you know I am a big believer in scale in buying as it approaches a technical target.  I scaled in 2 lots between 14870 and 14850    the lowest tick i bought was at 14850. 

Now, after a 300 pt rally, take profits on 1/3.  Its trading at 15,200.   Then move your stop up on the other 2/3.  The upside target is 15,298.   Scale in your sales from 15,240 on up.
Have a good weekend.

Buy a break in June Down at 14830.
This is a good support level the March lows at 14400.  Don’t forget your stop order though.  Friday’s unemployment info looks to have possibly leaked, or perhaps its just long’s taking profits before that number.

A break back to 14,400 would be  good place to get long as well.

The puts I had in place for the past 6 weeks are looking better and better.

That’s all for tonight.

CER

Currently have orders working to Sell June gold at 1427 with a buy stop at 42.  500 dollar risk. Looking for a break down to the recent lows for a by at 1377.

Also, here it looks like the settlement above 65 last Friday might have been a trap.
Although I I got stopped out last week, I still want to be short against a settlement this week below 67.

Stranger things have happened. 

As for new crop beans, SX has just rallied $1.20 in 14 trading days. Time for a breather. Sell SX on a limit at 13.55 with a down side […]

Its always best to keep your bet size small.  Every trade had the risk of becoming a loser.  Successful long term trading campaigns need on thing above all else. Disciplined loss taking.  IF you can train yourself to take losses in a disciplined manner, you have the foundation for successful long term trading.
Experienced traders as well as rookies are all subject to the same emotional foibles.  Greed, Fear, Envy, Ego, Second Guessing,  Wishing, Hoping, Praying.
If you find yourself wishing, hoping and praying when you are trading one thing is for sure.  You are trading too big.
If you are emotionally attached to the […]