Blog Archive

Ok,  CZ13 settled above the 3 yr old Trend line.  In 2 weeks, CZ rallied 61 cents.  This is why we use stops.   The CZ chart has moved back from Bearish, to Neutral in the short term (1-3 week)  Intermediate term ( 1 to 3 months)  CZ is still in the hands of the bears.  A settlement above 5.88 would be necessary to shift the intermediate term back to neutral.  That is the 1/2 way point of the life of contract extremes. Sept 12 th high 6.65 down to the recent low at 5.12.
Loss taken.  Fortunately, the first 1/3 of the shorts had small […]

Corn is 86 % planted vs. 99 last year.  We are 4% off average of 90 % for this time of year.  Last year’s 99% was more of an outlier.
Bottom line: I don’t see how this is bullish.  4% behind average planting rate? Seriously?

One interesting thing a marketer that every one follows today lifted his short futures positions.  That should go a long way towards easing higher prices.

CZ13 did fill the gap at 52 1/2.  However, we did not settle above it.   I have 5.64, then 5.75 then 5.88 as upsides, if they really get after it on the bull side.  We […]

Recap of positions:  Short CZ at 5.36 with a stop if we settle above 52 1/2.
Short SN at 14.98 entered today on a stop.   I won’t cover that for a while, however I moved buy stop down to 14.88.
The Dow, I remain friendly. This break to 15200 in the YMM looks like a natural pause in the rally.  I think a settlement above 15.500 opens door to 16,000 print.
Its a creeping, grinding rally.  Since November 16,  over the past 6 months, we have picked up 3,000 points. 
For a downside play, I’d have cheap 14000 puts on or 13,500 puts on to […]

I follow about a dozen other analysts in the daily flood of emails I receive.  I  will not name names but some have been relentless, ruthless bulls even as CZ has trended lower essentially since last September’s high at 6.65.  6.05 has been the high for the year. That came on New Years’ day.  In spite of the fact that the trend is lower,  every little rally is taken as the start of the new rally back to 7.00 corn.  CZ had a rally up to 5.70 a month ago and we have ground lower since then. Today’s fresh 11 month low at 5.12 came […]

Since November 15th ,  just 6-months ago June Dow Futures have rallied 3,000  pts.  That’s a hell of a freight train higher.  If you look at my old posts, basically since December I have have advised staying long, but with some cheap puts below playing for the eventual correction.

The “sell in May and go away” folks are taking the pipe here so far during the first half of may.  1462 has been the low.  we’ve rallied 649 pts in 20 days.  Not something those folks are probably publicizing or crowing about in their over priced news letters.

I am a believer in big round […]

Written by Chris Robinson

Corn: July corn settled up 11 ¼ cents at $6.52 ¾. December settled down 4 -1/2 cents at $5.19 ½ which is an 11 month low settlement. For the week, CN gained 16 ½ cents while CZ dropped 10 cents. The market today was fueled by traders buying July and selling December. This spread has popped since the May futures went off on Tuesday. That spread gained 16 cents today and settled at $133 ½. Five weeks ago, it was trading at 77 cents. […]