Blog Archive

The low in June Gold was 1659.10. Stops are still in place.  Longs are still in effect.

AS for the long feeder cattle position:  Cattle on feed was released to day at 2PM. Bullish,  Placements were 99% vs expectations of 104.
On Feed: 93% vs 98% expected.
This is the first time in 8 reports we have been further than 5% away from expectations.
These figures are bullish. Support Tightness.
Prices should rally.
Have I seen a report which is faded?  Yes.  However, I don’t see anyone fading this report b/c of the size of the discrepancy between reality and what had been anticipated.

The Dow […]

Today’s low 1658.  My support was 16.60.  I have scaled in longs here. 
IMPORTANT:  place your protective sell stops below to guarantee a worse case loss of no more than 5 $.
a trade below 1654 1/2 should be your safety parachute level.

Keep the the 5:1 risk reward or higher.  Risk one unit to make 5:  in this case,  we’re risking 5 bucks to make 30.

CER

For a speculative trade:  Buy Jan Gold (GCF13)  between 1668 and 1660.  Scale in buy at that level.  Upside target 1695.
We put in a 5 month low on January 4th at 1626.  We had a nice 75.00 rally and peaked at 1697.  No surprise we didnt get the actual 1700 print.
I like buying this break.  Keep your sell stops reasonable.  Risk 5 dollars.  Upside target is 30 bucks away. That’s a 5:1 risk reward.
If you don’t buy futures, buy  march 1700 calls for 11.00.  That’s 32 days of upside particicpation for $1100.00 risk.

The high in Cash Dow in 08 was 14,164.  Today’s high?  13,610.  Can we take out the next 554 points?  I would argue yes.
Don’t fight this trend. Be long, but have sell stops below.
Earnings have been better than expected. I’d argue that for the next several years that will be the trend. Analysts learned to under estimate performance. Better a bull surprise than a bear surprise if you are an analyst for a brokerage firm which caters to the public. The public likes bullish news.  Hence, the bias.
But that’s my opinion.
As for the march Dow futures,  we are making new contract […]

If you haven’t gotten stopped out of your shorts yet,  sit tight.  Depending on where you placed your stops, if they haven’t been hit yet,  resist the temptation to move the stops.

Tomorrow’s settlement should be key. End of week.  Middle of the month.  Earnings for the most part have been good.  Tomorrow’s close will critical.
We may actually be looking at a flood water of new buying in the wings, if we take out today’s highs.
Already, this is the highest settlement  since 2007. 

If we have a powerful move here, I am not averse to flipping and getting long.  If we […]

13,496 is the old high in march Dow mini futures. I’d be short at today’s levels 13,450 up against it.
Buy a march 13.000 put outright for 1500.
Or buy a 13.000 put/  sell the 13,850 call for even money,  Just be ready to cover the call on a settlement above 13,525.00
If you’re right, you can make a “free” 1500 or more.  If you are wrong, don’t let it turn into more than a 500.00 lost per contract.

In the grains,  Look to buy any breaks in old crop corn.  Look on those breaks to get May or July options on.
I have been […]

I am pleased to announce that as of Monday January 14th,  I will be directing strategies for current and new clients.   Pit Bull Trading is a division of Top Third Ag Marketing.   This opportunity was designed as the speculative arm to compliment the hedging accounts of our current clients.
If you are interested in the details of the opportunity, please contact me at crobinson@topthird.com or you can call the office direct at 866.924.0486.
There is a minimum investment.  There are no up front fees.  There are no management fees.   There is no lock up time. At any time if you are dis-satisfied with the […]

I’d like to see how we trade on Monday and Tuesday.  I have seen in the past where a number, once digested, gets rejected.
Only real surprise today was that USDA increased feed usage by 300MMt  and decreased exports by 200Mmt.   I think exports are way, way lower than that.   Bottom line,  we need to do some rationing in old crop.
Best way to profit from this,  buy old crop/sell new crop.   Buy old crop calls  March, May and July.
Buy new crop puts out in Dec.

I also want to be short new crop beans.   I think we have one more leg down before […]

Corn: March Corn settled up 5-1/2 cents at $6.94 ¼. CZ settled up 4 cents at $5.81 ¾. CH posted its low overnight at 6.86 ½ and then trended higher after the opening and through the trading day through a 10 cent range. There was no major news affecting the market overnight. It looked more like traders getting even or positioning in front of the USDA on Friday. Monsanto released its estimate for 2013 corn acres at 96 million acres. This is neck and neck with Informa, which came out with 99 a month ago. The major story in corn has not changed, as the […]

Friday January 11th  at 11PM,  the USDA will release the final crop report for the 2012 grain crop.  5 out of the last 7 years,  this number has produced a LIMIT move in response to the information released.
Plan Accordingly.

If you are a hedger:  Take the proper steps to protect your unpriced grain.  We have just sat through an 80 cent sell off in the last Month in new crop CZ corn,  Over a $1.30 in WN  new crop wheat,  and close to $ 1.00 in SX13.  Old crop SH has failed to move above $15.00.
The Chinese pulled  at least 3 previous sales […]