If you have at least 5K risk capital to invest in commodities, consider opening an account and trading through me. If you like my risk averse approach and my analysis, come work with me and let me help you make better risk/reward trades in 2013. Please email me at at christianrobinson1@gmail.com or contact me at 866.924.0486. I am a broker with over 25 years in the business. I spent the years from 1992 until 2008 in the trading pits of the Chicago Board of Trade. I traded every market from gold and silver, the interest rate curve, the grains, as well as the equity indexes.
I […]
Blog Archive
Advisors are grain bulls— should you be too?
I am an avid reader of other adviser’s letters. To a T, they are all bullish grains.
Yet, today we make 6month lows in corn, wheat and beans.
I have no idea where the bottom is, but I got away from the bullish cam when Informa mentioned the USA was going to plant 99 million acres of corn and 80 Million acres of beans.
If we get rain this year, we will be up to our eyeballs in grain.
Of course, everyone is looking at the last 3 years. We have not had a significant downside correction of substantial duration. So, farmers and traders have […]
Are The Grains Hinting at the Next Recession?
I had an interesting talk this AM with a trader who I think is one of the best in the history out here in Chicago. I won’t mention his name. He mentioned that the market reminded him of 1980, where the commodity market took a sudden and unexpected down move, while the stocks held firm.
That commodity sell off was a leading indicator of underlying problems which the other markets ignored. If you remember 1980, we had high interest rates and we moved into a recession, which we later rebounded from sharply.
Bottom line, this sell off in the grains after what should have been bullish […]
Grains Leaking Lower after gapping open higher-Bearish
CH gapped open higher and are now making new lows., SH were 30 higher earlier, now are 10 lower. WN tried to trade above 8.00, put in a high at 8.02, we are now trading at 7.80.
This type of action suggests underlying weakness which is puzzling.
With Crude higher and the Dow higher, combined with the fact that its the first of the year, we should be getting $ flow Into Commodities. Logically we should be higher.
The fact that its not playing out can mean one of two things. 1) We are still in thin Markets b/c the masters of the universe are […]
Dow Rallies 206 from Monday’s settlement
Its Wednesday Jan 2nd at 8AM CST and the high in Dow Futures so far is 13,255. Monday’s Panic low was 12.742. 5th grade math tells you That’s 513 points from panic low to today’s high.
I can only hope you followed along and at least covered shorts on buy stops. If you didn’t worse case scenario you lost 2500 on every mini you were short. Not a good way to start 2013.
On a positive note, Where is there resistance above? 12,270, 13,300 and then the 13,318. Once those fall, you have to look at the contract high at 13,496, going back to […]
Dow Rallies 206 from Monday's settlement
Its Wednesday Jan 2nd at 8AM CST and the high in Dow Futures so far is 13,255. Monday’s Panic low was 12.742. 5th grade math tells you That’s 513 points from panic low to today’s high.
I can only hope you followed along and at least covered shorts on buy stops. If you didn’t worse case scenario you lost 2500 on every mini you were short. Not a good way to start 2013.
On a positive note, Where is there resistance above? 12,270, 13,300 and then the 13,318. Once those fall, you have to look at the contract high at 13,496, going back to […]
12,742 was the low tick in March Dow
I hope you covered. An important safety tip, when there is a level in the Dow, I tend not try to get the exact tic. Instead I will be in a 30 tick window around that target. 15 higher or 15 lower.
I cautioned on Friday to have buy stops, in case this stuff popped by150 points. Low an behold we are back up at 12,862, about 100 points higher off those lows.
The 6 years I spent standing in the Dow pit when open outcry was still viable, taught me how nasty the moves could be in your face if you were complacent. Back in […]
Check that, Dow Futures Drop 226 OUCH
I just turned off the screen and made a few calls. In the last 2 minutes of trade in the march futures, it took a 50 pt haircut. We had been down 180. Finished down 226 down to 12,777, with a low at 12,766. I have 12,740 as my next support. We could see 12,799 or maybe even 12,500 if they whack this thing Sunday night. Stay short my friends. But make sure you have a buy stop above. And make sure its a buy stop. Not a stupid buy stop limit. Using limits on your stops is counter productive. When you need to get […]
Dow drops 180 pts on the last Friday of 2012
I wrote this AM and had 12,851 as support, followed by 12,740. Today’s low so far has been 12,843.
Hopefully you covered some shorts here. I forgot completely I had that as a buy level. I was busy all day focusing on the small bounce in the wheat and the corn, which I think are oversold, yet still vulnerable to another flush. I remain short a small position, but I have taken profits at this 12,850 level.
I have also been watching the rally in cattle over the last 10 days. We seem to have come too far too soon, and have left some room […]
How Far Could the Dow Futures Drop?
March Dow Futures have good support at 12,851 and the 12,740. If they cut it loose, there is support down at the 12,400 level, at 12,382, which was low of the November puke fest after the US elections which saw a 724 point drop in 9 trading days, starting on the 7th and bottoming out on the 16th.
Subsequently, March futures rallied 936 points from 12,382 up to 12,219 on the 19th. Technically, it looks like a nice “v bottom ” on the daily charts. That being said, what it looks like is we may just trade through this 1,000 pt mess for a […]