Blog Archive

Last tick 13,187,   low tick 13,145.  The Dow looks vulnerable to a sell off at least down to 13,000 by tomorrow,  Friday. 
However,  if we catch a bid and the bulls get back in the driver’s seat,  then our buy stops will insure that we make money,  or 2)  worse case scenario,  break even with a push.
Maintain shorts.

Down side targets to cover shorts:  13116,  12986,   12881 and then 12,776.

In the wheat,  I’d use today’s sell off to cover short and initiate speculative longs.   WH traded down to 801 and settled at 808 1/2.   808 1/2 is 200 day moving average and […]

The high tick in Dow Jones Dec was 13,326.
We settled at 12,225, on the dead ass low of the day and 100 pts away from that high tick.  100 pts on a one lot is 1K bucks.  Not a lot of $ if your name is Boris or  your last name rhymes with who-dat…  but,   most people would be happy with that.
1) move your stops down to guarantee you have nothing worse than  a push.
2) take profits on a small portion as a reward for being correct.

Don’t watch TV or turn on the screen until Friday afternoon.  
If these guys don’t […]

Here we sit.  Do we settle Dow Futures above 13,300?  so far high is 13,305, that’s the high tick.  If you are long,  take profits.  If you are like me and have been scaling out of longs and getting short since 12,150…You sit tight. Let you buy stops work.  Fold your arms.  Turn off the screen and check back Thursday or Friday.

March Wheat,  to switch gears:   We had a 2.35 rally this summer fueled by the corn drought.  In the past 3 days, we’ve dropped over 50 cents.  We came down to 8.09 last night  which is the 200 day moving average.  Its also […]

Both Chicago and KC wheat look vulnerable for at least a 25 to 50 cent break down from these levels.  New Crop KC WN looks poised to take out support at 9.00.. next support 8.84 then 8.50  a real melt down takes us to 8.25 and the bottom of the 1.00 trading range going all the way back to the July lows. 

Chicago WN is at 845.  the 850 level has failed and the next stop is 8.25.  If 8.25 does not hold,8.00 is definitely in the cards.  That being said,  I am going to be buying it at 8.25to 8.16 on a flush.  […]

Bearish wheat.  Corn hangs in early.  Beans should be supported.
Wheat looks vulnerable making new 5-month lows.
There’s another 50 cent downside risk in wheat.

In the Dow futures,  we are 35 ticks away from the November 7th– 2-month  high at 13,252.  I’d scale in sell as we approach that level and the the 13,316 high.  That’s a 70 point band of resistance that I want to be short against. 
CER

7:45AM

Today’s high 13,194.   I have been talking about 13,200 as a sell level for the last 200 pts. I have been a scale in seller here.  13,300 might be tested.  I would not cover shorts until we settle convincingly above that level.  13,251 was our November 7th which was met with a 817 pt sell off to the November 16th  5- month low, in the post-election puke fest.  13,600 is the level all the bulls are eyeing. 
With the fiscal cliff out there I don’t know how you don’t sell this rally.   In my own opinion,  I think the fiscal cliff,  Thelma and Louise scenario is […]

A tight 100 pt trading range on an unemployment Friday?  I’d call that a tepid response to what should have been bullish.
Perhaps traders are more worried about the fiscal cliff negotiations than any thing else.
We continue to have no settlement with both sides apparently happy to keep campaigning in the press instead of getting the job done.   Maybe they should lock these guys in a room w/ no bathroom for a weekend.  My guess is they’d come to an agreement after about 12 to 18 hours.

In any event, my opinion remains the same. I am scale in seller here between 13,000 and […]

December hogs rallied 15 dollars in 3 months.  The top step  contract,  Feb Hogs,  rallied from 77 to 88.  I’d have a resting order to sell Feb hogs at the 86.00 level.  Market will have to rally back to get that done,  but that’s the level I’d sell.  we are at 84.50..  for more aggressive trade,  sell it here, risk it to a close above 86 and look to cover shorts at 83.00 to 82.50.
Time stamp it.
That’s all for today.
CER

As the drama continues around the fiscal cliff in Washington,  the Dow huddles around the 13,000 level.  Bulls look to the tea leaves and assume we won’t go off the cliff. 
In my opinion the level between 13,000 and 13,200  should be scaled into on sells.  there is a wall of resistance up at 13,500.  and support below down at 12,400.  That’s 1100 pts worth of sideways churn from my perspective. 
Sell  into the highs and try to get long on the break.
If we move sharply above 13,500, then take losses on shorts and move on.

I am not in a real […]

Written by Chris Robinson

Corn: March corn settled up 2 ¼ cents at 7.54 ¾. CH posted its high at 7:30 AM but then leaked lower all day, breaking 15 cents from its highs. A 5 cent rally in the last 3 minutes saved the corn from a lousy performance. Export inspections had been expected to be 23-26 million bushels. The actual number was a disappointing 9.626 million bushels. New crop CZ13 settled up 4 ¼ cents at […]