Blog Archive

Wheat, corn and beans leaking from earlier highs.  The action is not very encouraging for the bulls.
Either there is a lack of interest or just fatigue.  Anytime the market gets bullish news and can’t hold a rally,  that’s a sign of weakness.
I’d be careful getting too in love with any position here. I’d look at the ranges I broke down earlier for March Futures.
December may just be a good month to trade one lots and let it go.

I have to say  I thought we’d be a lot higher today on the Egyptian Tender.  We struggled overnight, and today, we’ve continued to have […]

Yes, Egypt tendered wheat from the US over the weekend. In general, US wheat was 20 to 40 bucks a ton cheaper than that available in the Black Sea.  March Wheat Has been in a Range bounded by 845 on the bottom with resistance at 930 on top going all the way back to June.  That’s 5 months of range trade.  The mid point of the trade is 8.87.  On Friday we rolled down to the 8.65 level.  I see no reason why we don’t run back up to 887 1/2 or 897 1/2.  

Lets move to March Corn.  March corn has a range […]

So far, wheat, corn and beans are only up a nickle.  Not a very powerful rally in the wake of announcement that Egypt bought US Wheat. What does this mean? 
I am not really sure.  I would have thought we would have been 15  to 20 higher.

What to do?

Take your profits,  raise your sell stops on any longs and sit tight.  We might get  busier around 3 AM.  I will be sleeping letting my stops do the work.

I just thought we would have been a lot higher.   Un like a lot of people,  I don’t hesitate to say  I was wrong.  […]

Apparently 4-month low in US wheat and Friday’s ugly close brought out the value shoppers in Egypt.
Seems like Egyptian politicians are just like any other politicians.  They know what happens when their subjects can’t get reasonably priced bread.  Generally, that’s a bad outcome for the politicians.

We open Sunday night electronic trading in a few hours. My guess is that traders who 1) stayed short based on Friday’s ugly close or 2)  went home short looking for follow through;  they will lead the rally up as they cover losing positions.

In general, this should be supportive for corn prices as well.  Tonight’s trade should […]

March corn down 6 1/2 : March wheat down 20:  March beans down 9.
We might have one more flush down next week in the grains.  November is over.  Last Friday of the month.  Last trading day of the month.
March corn 7.47 is 38% fib… 741 will be 1/2 way back.. Boris,:  buy it there
march wheat is 30 cents off its high from 3 days ago. Looking really ugly.  864 was the 62% fib.
I am going home long on a spec.  I think its over done in the wheat.
The beans I think have one more leg down, although a buy here […]

Today I’d take profits on long positions in the grain and walk away for the weekend.
In the last 2 weeks, corn and wheat rallied over 50 cents and beans rallied almost 90.   We were just at 5 month lows in the beans and 4 month lows in the wheat.
In my opinion, we are near the top of the foreseeable trading range.  We have no major numbers looking at us until January’s planting intentions.
We run the risk of more political theater about the fiscal cliff.
Farmers are looking at a slew of tax increases in 2013.
I think profits will be booked.  

We’ve now bounced 600 points and we’ve breached the 13,000 psychological level.  In my opinion, we well chop around this level for the next month.  Day to day we may have volatility based on the play by  play coverage of the  “fiscal cliff” confrontation in the US capitol.  13000 is the mid point of the 1000 pt trading range we’ve been rappelling through for the past 5 month.
When we near the top,  the TV anchors bust out the Champagne and sing the praises of their favorite politicians.  When we near the bottom,   it gets eerily quiet and the focus shifts to the evil greedy […]

We’ve now bounced 600 points and we’ve breached the 13,000 psychological level.  In my opinion, we well chop around this level for the next month.  Day to day we may have volatility based on the play by  play coverage of the  “fiscal cliff” confrontation in the US capitol.  13000 is the mid point of the 1000 pt trading range we’ve been rappelling through for the past 5 month.
When we near the top,  the TV anchors bust out the Champagne and sing the praises of their favorite politicians.  When we near the bottom,   it gets eerily quiet and the focus shifts to the evil greedy […]

Today’s low in Dow Jones futures was 30 ticks below the 12,775  level.  This was a test of the first Fibonacci retracement at 38%.  38 %   of what?   38% of the rally from the November 16th low at  12,434  up to the high last Friday at 12,982  That was 548 point rally in 6 trading sessions.

I wrote about this level a few entries ago.  I really don’t want to step in and buy until we test the 50% level down at 12,708.  I’d be using that level to cover shorts and initiate small long positions.

The level below there I like is the 62% […]

I don’t like the Dow again from a buyer’s position until we get back to 12,700 or 12,650.. We might just chop aimlessly here in a 600 pt trading range through Christmas.  For now I’d be a comfortable seller of rally’s against the 12,985 level.

In the grains,  I certainly would not be stepping in front of this market selling new rallies.  I’d stay long, especially through Friday’s close.  Friday’s close might give us a chance to take some good profits off in front of the weekend.

Fundamentally, we are going to have to watch the following 1) weather 2) fund length 3) outside markets.   Watch […]