Blog Archive

Wheat Fails to maintain Rally as the 8-month T-line comes into play-again

7 Days ago, the wheat market popped higher,  in fact, from the low to Monday’s 6-week high, the contract rallied 37 cents. Today we’ve had a sharp sell off, after trying to rally higher.

The funds look to have added to shorts in wheat. The 8-month T-line, shown below in WK and WN,  illustrates how these longer dated t-lines can come into play.  If we were to settle below that T-line for the week,  both bears and recent longs would have to re-evaluate their positions.

This chart shows how the market tends to “rally up the staircase”, but corrects by “falling down the elevator shaft”. […]

Managed Fund short +Technicals=Opportunity

New Crop CZ16 is right up against a T-line which extends back to the July 2015 highs.
Managed funds have a very large short postion: 222K contracts, or 1.1 billion bushels.
The Contract is also right up against this T-Line.
Most analysts agree that the older or more established a T-line is on the charts, the more significance it can have.
Doubtless, every bull and every bear is looking at this T-Line.
While there is no guarantee ever in technical analysis, in my opinion, the set up gives traders, both bulls and bears, great opportunity.
The opportunity will come […]