Blog Archive

I have been long DJZ here.  That is no news. I suggested there might be a 150 pt window of heat.  So far, the low in DJZ was 12,937:  That’s just 63 points.
The S&P also traded to to key support at the psychologically important 1400 level. Today’s low was 1394.70, and we bounced back to settle at 1407.

Hurricane Sandy is on its way. We will have light volume probably through Wednesday.  I’d be looking for a light volume rally.  But that’s been my idea for a week here.  Lets see if it pans out.

Have your stops in place, in case there’s some […]

Today I got a major sell signal in CZ December corn.  That being said, over the past 5 months, I have had these as well, and promptly had that position in my face after an initial quick profit.
For what its worth, my analysis suggest we could have a break hard here.

I am still long/bullish the Stock indexes after this break. However, I am not stupidly long. I have reasonable sell stops below, in case there is another 200 Pts of selling which might rush into this market.

CER

December gold has major resistance at $1800.00 an ounce.  in the last 3 weeks, we have seen gold drop $80 bucks and ounce or 5% of its value.  Technically, there is an old gap, back at 1694 which we are within 30 bucks of hitting.  That should be  a target well within the reach of us withing the next  5 trading sessions.  If the bears can squeeze all the gold bugs out,  we might get a chance to buy gold down around the 1545 level,  which is our 3-month low, and the bottom of our trading range  Looking at the chart,  we have support at […]

While we never got to 13,600 again, if you’ve been following along, I’ve been suggesting selling rallies, with tight buy stops.  That being said,  we traded down to 13,126,  which is just 6 ticks away from an old chart low at 13,118. 
I’d be looking to cover any existing shorts, and look for a bounce on an over sold, emotional move.

We’ve gotten some iffy earning reports,  we are heading 13 days in front of the election.
I just don’t see any major moves, higher or lower between then.. 

I’d definitely be a buyer at the 13,000 level on the initial flush down.

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Yesterday’s high in the DJZ was 13,530.Today’s low is 200pts lower.  Sadly, i havd 13,550 and 13600 as resting sell orders.  They never got hit. 
It is interesting that 13,450 to 13,600—– a narrow 150 pt range, has been the Maginot line since September 11th. 
This is starting to look like the Dow wants to roll over here.
I’d sell into rallies, all the time with my eyes at the 13,600 level as the price level to pull the rip cord on the parachute.

I am not sure what the next 3 weeks have in mind, but I’d be very suspect of […]

That sound you are hearing is a whipsaw.  Kind of like putting your left hand into a blender.
Fortunately, I always have stops in place and I always use options so that from day one I know my exit strategy.

There are 6 trading days left on the Nov options.  I am going to hang on to them because they are not worth exiting.  Monday we may come in set up for a sell off,  but I honestly doubt it. Grains were set up for a sell off, and they have rejected that down move.  Facts are facts.

The Dow shorts have all been exited.  […]

On October 8th ,  I looked at being short around the 13,500-13650 level with a down side target at 13,200,  with a possible flush down to 13,118.
Today we went to 13,208, just one tick below the November 12th low at 13,209. We have since had a nice short covering rally up to 13,362.  If you had had access to my real time updates, as opposed to these once daily blogs,  you would have taken another 1/3 of your shorts off on the bounce above 13,239. That is where my buy stops had been lowered.

We just may have posted the low for the next […]

Yesterday’s close was not very impressive in the grains, given the fundamentals of the number.  Other than the initial push up in corn to try to move up 40 cents, the beans looked suspect.  Today we have corn down 10, wheat down 20 and beans down 20. That’s 500 a contract, and 1K a contract respectively, if you were short futures.

If SX futures fail at 15.00,  we’ll see a flush down.  I’d look to sell it here on a spec for the next week.  You’d have to risk 25 cents though, or about $1,500 a futures contract.  

Its still early Friday,  currently 9:41 […]

Beans did not settle that well considering the initial rally up.  Corn couldn’t take out limit. This is making me believe we could have a replay of the last USDA, where traders got bulled up after the number, but the market did not deliver w/ follow through.
You have to remember this is a future’s market,  not a yesterday or today market.

I would  continue look at places to buy cheap puts as insurance and or/ specs.

One final word, looking at the Gold,  we are just about 30 bucks below that 1800 level which we approached but failed to reach.
I’d be short here […]

First Blush, numbers were not that bullish.  They raised the yield. They also raised exports.
Corn up 24,  Beans up 20 but had been up as much as 35.  Wheat is up just 8 cents after being up 20 early.

Looks like another light volume trade.  One thing to note,  beans rallied and corn rallied about 2 minutes before the 730 AM number was released.  More than just a few pros think this looked like some sort of a leak, or just a very luck guess.

Adjust buy stops in the short Dow position.  the low today so far as been 13,227., within 100 pts […]