Blog Archive

Back on Sept 10th, I wrote that I was advising getting long gold, even if  a reluctant long.  When we popped above $1700.00 an ounce, it triggered a buy.  Today we came withing 20 bucks of the target at $1800.00
Take profits on 1/3 of positions.  Move stops up on the rest.  Sell the next 1/3 at 1799.00. When those sales get filled, then move your trailing stop up on the final 1/3.
That is all I have to say about Gold.

Tomorrow is a USDA stock grain report.  I’d sit on my hands for the first half our of trade. Barring that,  consider having […]

Food for thought for fundamental traders out there.  Logic suggests that QE3 should have been friendly for commodities in general.  However, Corn and Beans have done nothing but drift lower. Corn spiked higher but is now down 60 cents a bushel, or 3K dollars a contract.
Soybeans spiked on the 13th as well.  As of today’s action it has dropped  $2.20  or $10,100 dollars a contract.
Wheat has held up but is stuck more in a trading range.  If we have continued pressure,  it will soon follow suit.
Just food for thought.  After being beat up on every rally,  the bears are finally starting […]

Food for thought for fundamental traders out there.  Logic suggests that QE3 should have been friendly for commodities in general.  However, Corn and Beans have done nothing but drift lower. Corn spiked higher but is now down 60 cents a bushel, or 3K dollars a contract.
Soybeans spiked on the 13th as well.  As of today’s action it has dropped  $2.20  or $10,100 dollars a contract.
Wheat has held up but is stuck more in a trading range.  If we have continued pressure,  it will soon follow suit.
Just food for thought.  After being beat up on every rally,  the bears are finally starting […]

If you have been reading this on a regular basis, you will know that I have been only interested in selling new highs in the Stock Index futures, with very tight buy stops above.
Today December Dow futures moved below support at 13,400.  This is an opportunity to take profits, as well as manage profits with trailing buy stops.  If you have profitable short positions on currently THE WORST you should be looking at now, with your trailing buy stops… is a push.
We could get a nice break here down to 13,150.  That’s a potential $2500.00  a contract profit.
In the S&P’s I’d be […]

This Friday we have a USDA ending stocks report.
I’d look for a sell off here in the next 3 days to take advantage of any forced liquidation.  In the Beans,  look to buy at $15.81 with stops and then at $15.17.
If we get a nice break in CZ down to 5.70 area,  I’d like to buy it there as well.
Chicago December wheat will break in concert with corn.  I’d be interested in buying wheat at the 8.50 level.
That’s about all for today.

Keep looking for a break to buy if Crude keeps breaking as well. We’ve broken down 7 bucks […]

We are finally getting some good volatility in the beans, as apposed to the relentless rally we saw which started in June.  After a $5.40 cent rally,  with an unusual lack of any good meaningful corrections,  we finally are getting some action which is, from my perspective,  trade able.

Yield reports from across the country are en masse,   much higher than expected.  Clients who had been expecting 20 to 30 bu  a month ago are coming in at 50 to 80 Bu.

Funds are still massive longs.  And yesterday’s rally was very light volume.  That tells me everyone who wants to be long is already […]

Rumblings of trade issues with China. China and Japan arguing over a small group of islands.  China in particular has had demonstrations and protests.protests were orderly in Beijing, with several hundred people circling in front of the Japanese Embassy demanding Chinese control over a small island group known as Senkaku in Japan and as Diaoyu in China. Protests were also reported in other cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou and Qingdao.

At the end of the day, history had shown that sometimes its the random historical grievances which give rise to present day issue.

In any event,  I can’t see how this has bullish ramifications for […]

Back in the 80’s there was a commentator whose name escapes me.  He had a sayng , “rule number one– don’t fight the fed”. 
I can’t say anything more than that.  The Fed’s decision to buy 40B worth of mortgages every month with an open ended time frame is a game changer.  In effect,  printing money.  It may be what we need to finally get jobs going again.. I hope it works. In the long term its very inflationary but give the choice of inflation or deflation, a society is probably better off with inflation.  Deflation is Post Wiemar Germany and 1932 US depression.

Back in the 80’s there was a commentator whose name escapes me.  He had a sayng , “rule number one– don’t fight the fed”. 
I can’t say anything more than that.  The Fed’s decision to buy 40B worth of mortgages every month with an open ended time frame is a game changer.  In effect,  printing money.  It may be what we need to finally get jobs going again.. I hope it works. In the long term its very inflationary but give the choice of inflation or deflation, a society is probably better off with inflation.  Deflation is Post Wiemar Germany and 1932 US depression.

For the first time in history, China has imported twice as much gold as US Treasury Debt.
Politicians can talk on both sides of Left and Right about the Deficit and who “has to be made to pay”.  Like Nero, they watch as Rome burns.     The rest of the world is voting with its feet and with its check book.

China wants gold rather than US debt.  The US earlier this week dis continued one-way flights back to Mexico for illegal immigrants.  The reason why? Because for now,  the flood of individuals coming to EL Norte has turned to  a trickle.   The demand is […]