Blog Archive

December Gold popped above 1700. This opens the door for a run back to the August highs at 1900.  I’d buy it and get a trailing stop below. I’d buy it and not look at it on a day to day basis.  Decide what’ you’re willing to lose. In this case, If you buy it at 1735,  you have a risk down to 1640 on a surprise correction. Roughly 100 bucks an ounce risk.  Look at 1800-2100 call spread as well to cheapen up the cost of the 1800 call.  Bull call spreads are nice because they give you a defined risk/reward.

As for the […]

Hope you took profits down below 13,000 as I requested.   Dow futures  are now poking at the top of the range.  REMEMBER  back on June 4th we traded down below 12,000 , with a low tick at 11,884.  In 3 months we have returned to the top of the range.  1,424 points wide.  Its about time for Dem’s to take credit for the warm fuzzy the stock indexes are enjoying currently.  Too bad we can’t have Clinton give a speech every week.   That was one of the greatest political speeches I have ever watched. He has a great style. A la Reagan. Even if you […]

Its 11AM CST.  Dow futures trading last at 12,983. Today’s low at 12,965 is resting at the lowest level in a month.  Take profits on shorts.  Move stops down to insure worst case scenario break even.
Downside targets 12,720, 12,613 and then 12,375.  That is all for the Index position.

CER

Dow futures tested the 13,300 level 2 days ago in anticipation of easing or dovish comments from the fed.  I am not calling this a top, but, if you have been following me,  you know I look for counter trend trades to take lower risk profits.  Today we have an opportunity to protect profits on short positions be they futures or options based bets. Move protective stops on you futures to ensure that at worst case you have a break even.  Take profits on 1/3 of the futures at or near the 13,025 level.

As for the Beans and Corn,  It looks like we are […]

Its 11AM in Chicago.  Corn down 8 but it had been down 23 earlier.  Wheat down 13 but it had been down 23 as well.  Beans down 33,  after being down 40 earlier.
May get  a rally to sell here today.  Nothing has changed from Friday’s USDA.  I’d still be looking to sell rallies and buy dips.  Technically, CZ put in a key reversal Friday.  All this means is that it spiked to a new all time high,  then collapsed, suggesting a blow off top.  Every doctor,  dentist and cab driver  who bought the end of the rally in the past  2 weeks are now looking for […]

Corn yield was lowered to 123 bushels to a 10.7 Billion Corn crop.  Bean yield 36,  2.6 billion bushel crop.

Bullish number.  We had a 30 cent spike and break in corn.  If the carry out gets smaller, beans show possibility of going higher,  I just don’t know how much higher.  We are past the supply part of the rally.
Now we head into the demand part of the equation.  Higher price equals less demand. 

I’d continue to be short, either with puts,  or with buy stops to limit potential losses.  CZ traded up to 8.49.  could not get the 8.50 put.  CZ13, traded up […]

SX is down 43 cents as I write this at 9:44.  Overnight we were as much as 50 cents lower. 50 Cents is $2500 a contract.  If you took my advice and went home short Friday, then I’d reward yourself with taking profits.
If you faded me and went home long, hopefully you had sell stops to protect you.  If you didn’t then maybe you finally learned an expensive lesson.
Between Monday and Thursday, if we continue to get lower temps and good rains, that will pressure beans and should move corn and wheat lower in sympathy.
I’d be short looking to take profits on […]

Expectations were for 100K new non-farm payrolls jobs.  We got 163K   a nice surprise.  Looks like people were betting on a bearish number, so you had a spike in the Dow. 
High in futures still just 13080.  low 12,813 for a 200 point trading range,   currently up 222 pts.
In my opinion, I’d be a seller between 13,100 and 13,200  because its the top of the resistance of the trading rang.  Combine that with the ecstasy coming through from the financial media and I think this is a low risk trade.
Its getting late in the day for grains.  Buy a CZ 7.50 put […]

Today’ s high in the Dow markes a 600 point rally from Tuesday’s low at 12,462. As of this writing the high tick has been 13,061.  The next upside resistance for Dow futures looks to be the May 2nd high up at 13,204.  One caveat for those of you who like to buy on strength..   After that high on May 2nd,  Dow futures fell 1,329 points over the a one month period,  capped off with the low at 11,885 on June 4th.

Bottom line,  its hard to get too excited about this rally.  I think a lot of folks were caught short for this month, […]

Today is July 26, 2012.  We have December corn flirting once again with the $8.00 resistance level.  Tomorrow is the last Friday of the month, and historically,  markets like to make highs on those calender events.
Since June 15th,  December new crop 2012 corn has rallied $2.94 from its low tick at $5.06.  Since June 1st, SX12 beans rallied $4.46 cents between the low at $12.45 up to last Friday/ this Monday’s high at $16.91.  Between Monday’s high and yesterday’s low at  $15.36.  That was a $1.55 correction in 72 hours.
Just an example of how fast it drops when the party is over.
Now […]