Blog Archive

After initially looking like a good level to buy in the Dow futures,  at 12650-12,550,  The market has continued to leak.  No news stories, continued worries about Europe,  the whole JP Morgan debacle, just took the steam off the stocks.  The biggest story has been Facebook, and as of this writing, if you bought today, you are already down money. Obviously, if you were an employee and had a bunch of paper handed to you today, you are still way, way ahead of the game..

Honestly,  I’d be short here, with a trailing buy stop above.  Once the 12,550 level did not hold,  I exited […]

The dow futures are at their support level which has held over the past 4-months.  Buy it and put a stop in.
Thats all for now.
CER

JP Morgan… This morning  announced they had a boo boo.  A bad trade.  Not a rogue trader,  but a bad trade.
They are talking 2 billion.. That to me means by the time the smoke clears it will be more like 6 to 8..
What does this mean?
Well, it could be the push to have the Stock market break below its recent trading range.  Possible to  have the Dow falter and go down below 12,600.  Possibly have the S&P drop to 1300..
Buy S&P 1300 puts for 1200 bucks.  That would hedge any long positions you have in stocks. One put should cover 125K […]

Just yesterday I wrote that we might be in for a break Dow the 12650..We got down to 12,700.   Watching CNBC now,  after a 96 point bounce back from 17000,  they are wiping their brows and fanning themselves.  Are you serious?  This passes for thoughtful analysis?  This is a break i caught with a short position.  I covered that short and bought out of the money calls at 13,000 just as a matter of principal.
If they are getting bearish after a correction in the stocks indexes, is probably a good time to start heading upstream against the herd.

Beans, Corn and Wheat settled […]

Much to the dismay of financial reporters who are watching their viewership drift away now that its past May first,  the stocks look to be range bound.  If you are looking for volatility, you are not going to find in in S&P’s or Dow futures.   12,650 to 13,200  equals a 550 point trading range..  That’s a 4% valuation drop or gain, depending on how the market is trading.   We may have a day or a week where we explore that entire trading range somewhere along the line. 
In the mean time,  I’d look at putting on a straddle or a strangle to take advantage […]

Dow futures can’t get above 13,200 or below 12,650. 600 point trading range looks like our lot for the foreseeable future.  I can’t really see any thing on the horizon which will move us.  More that likely it will be something coming unexpectedly out of Europe.

The old adage sell in may and go away may once again play out.  However,  I read a couple articles to that effect on the wire over the past week, so that is suggestive to me that we will stay more in a trading range rather than see an acceleration below 12,500.

The media will continue to have a field […]

Dow futures can’t get above 13,200 or below 12,650. 600 point trading range looks like our lot for the foreseeable future.  I can’t really see any thing on the horizon which will move us.  More that likely it will be something coming unexpectedly out of Europe.

The old adage sell in may and go away may once again play out.  However,  I read a couple articles to that effect on the wire over the past week, so that is suggestive to me that we will stay more in a trading range rather than see an acceleration below 12,500.

The media will continue to have a field […]

China’s GDP came in at 8.1, Analysts were looking for 8.5 or higher. End result? Dow currently down 105, S&P currently down 11 handles. Not a bad way to end the week. I hope you had a short position. It’s 1:30 pm and I am heading home for the weekend. Beans, Corn and Wheat all took it on the chin today. corn down 10, beans down 5, wheat down 16. Next week could be ugly for corn and wheat if technical levels are broken. The beans may be the last stalwart for the bulls unless we start getting talk of a real drought. Have a […]

China’s GDP came in at 8.1, Analysts were looking for 8.5 or higher. End result? Dow currently down 105, S&P currently down 11 handles. Not a bad way to end the week. I hope you had a short position. It’s 1:30 pm and I am heading home for the weekend. Beans, Corn and Wheat all took it on the chin today. corn down 10, beans down 5, wheat down 16. Next week could be ugly for corn and wheat if technical levels are broken. The beans may be the last stalwart for the bulls unless we start getting talk of a real drought. Have a […]

In my opinion, this is a bounce to sell. Sadly, we never got to my buy levels. I had 12,635 as my buy. The low was 12,648. In the S&P, the low was 1357, I had a buy down at 1338. So, unfortunately, we didn’t get chance to buy it there. Quite honestly, this is a rally I’d look to sell. If the S&P gets close to 1400, then sell some there ditto for the Dow at 13000. Use those levels to get short. Risk a reasonable amount. I believe between now and the end of April, those shorts will be very profitable. If I […]