Blog Archive

Please read yesterday’s entry as a reference for this one.
Today as of this writing… Gold? down 55.70 at 17.18….
Corn? Down 28 1/4 at 614. Wheat? traded down below the 6.00 target and is sitting -24 cents at 592 1/2.
Jan beans traded down to 11.62 and settled at 1168, down 19 1/2 cents.

Probably over done, but you never know.

Looks like exports were bad. Japan bought corn from the FSU yesterday b/c its 20 bucks a ton cheaper than our corn thanks to our stronger dollar. Some previous sales were canceled to the toon of 17M bushels. People suspect its China cancelling […]

Dec Gold could drop back down to 1695 and still be a good buy. Believe it or not, there’s 80 bucks of air under this contract. We are lounging between 1800 and 1750, content to have those round number targets contain us. World wide events, be it 1) Europe or 2) Mid East Tensions will be the catalyst for the next move.
I remain friendly gold, based on the up move 11 trading sessions ago when we moved above 1736 on November 3.

Grains? Dec 11 Corn moved back to the middle of its one month 30 cent trading range. Ugh 🙁 Dec Wheat […]

For the past week or so, I’ve been friendly gold, based on technicals only. Currently we are at our highs close to 1790. I suggested buying at the 1750 level b/c it was the trend line intersection yesterday. I think gold wants to go challenge its recent high. That flush down to 1168 spooked alot of weak longs out of the market.

Going home over the weekend, where are we as I write this?
Dec Dow futures have bounced back to the 12,144 level. There is a wall here between 12,144 and 12,228. I suspect we’ll continue to trade the recent crazy volatility. I find […]

Every 24 hours Europe goes from broken and irreparable to fixed and sunny..Its like watching a manic depressive who’s decided to stop taking their medication.

What to watch today? Gold returns to that trend line… 1750 today is the intersection point. Your risk is the old low at 1681. If you spec from the long side, expect the trade to dance around that trend line. Just make sure you have a stop loaded up in case we have another flush down. This is a dicey trade, but watch that trend line.

With Europe on a see saw of bullish/bearish sentiment, no one knows what the […]

Poor Stock investors. They have been trounced around the dance floor like a 2 dollar whore during Fleet Week. From a low of 10,329 back on October 4th, Rally up 1,900 points up to 12,228 on October 27th just 17 trading days later… Followed by a 3-day 658 point sell off down to 11,570 on Nov 1st…Wait for it…. followed by a rally to yesterday’s high at 12,144 for a 577 point rally…. followed today with a drop from yesterday’s high at 12,144 down to 11,688, only 456 points in 24 hours…

Trading in these markets demands 1) small bet size, 2) wide stops and […]

USDA gives us a neutral number for corn. They lowered the yield to 146.7 but increased the carryout by 42 million bushels. Early calls higher. I would step aside for the first 1/2 hour. I’d be inclined to sell a spike higher.

Overnight more volatility in the Dow index, down 225 as I write this.Crude oil down 1.80. There seems to be more fear about 1) Israel/Iran show down and 2) continued worries about Italy.
For two years we’ve heard about PIIGS (portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain). Now suddenly as Greece is in the throws of default…. NOW suddenly people are focusing in in […]

If you’ve read my blog you know if I am anything, I am a contrarian.
Being long gold is not contrarian.
However, Gold’s break out above 1733, above that key trendline, suggests a 300 dollar rally is in front of us.. Why 300 dollar rally and not 3,000?

Taking the trend lines above and below the market gives us a symmetrical triangle on the daily charts. The base is measured, from the September 26th low at 1535. Remember, this low was made just 20 days from the contract high at 1923 on September 6th. Bulls who bought that new high took a 388 […]

80K jobs created. Rate drops one tenth of one percent to an even 9.0
Another 200 point range in the Dow Index; 25 handles in the S&P… Right now as I write this, Dec Dow futures are at 11,840, down 138. Gold is 10 dollars off its high at 1766, with another 16 dollar trading range.

Important: The Trend line in December gold gives us support today down at 1732.

The trend line intersection points: 1) Sep 6th high at 1923.70… 2) October 28th 17.54
3) Wednesday’s intersect of that trend line at 1738, although it took the trend line out by 7 bucks with […]

Continues to look like Greece may be set adrift from the rest of Europe. The domino worry about Italy, Portugoal, Ireland and Spain following suit looms as a worse case scenario.
For 2 plus years this situation has unfolded like a slow motion train wreck. In the end though, it looks like gravity will have its way.

Gold has moved above a nice long term triangle. Yesterday it looked lik it would fall out of bed and move lower. Today, after last night’s action, gold looks to be on a break out I’d look for a potential move back up to contract highs.

Interestingly, we’ve […]

There might be a decent trend line to trade around here in Gold. It has a solid 3 point. Begin with the high in Dec gold on Sep 6th at 1923.70. The second point is on October 28th high at 1755.40, the Third point is today’s high, November 2nd 1742.30.

I would initiate sales against this trend line.

Moving to the grains… We had a huge bounce late in the day from what looked like EDFMANN positions being liquidated. We saw the same move in the meats as well. Mann had once been responsible for 1 out of every 5 futures positions in the entire […]