Blog Archive

This week could be interesting for the stock indexes. We’ve rallied up to the top of our 12 week extremely wide trading range. How wide? 1,300 points in the Dow, bordered by 10,400 and 11,700. 140 handles in the S&P bordered by 1080 on the bottom and 1220 on the top side.

In effect, you have program trading pushing these markets to their extremes; followed by them picking up the pieces of what’s left of individual speculative traders. The “disruptor programs” have been very effective and have are living up to their name.

What to do? 1)Play the extremes of the ranges 2) trade small […]

Sometimes its better to be lucky than smart. Back on the 9th an 10th of October I put in some resting orders to sell Dow Futures at 11,475, 11,500 and 11,525. They all were filled yesterday. Quite honestly, I thought we were going to run up to 10,800 level.
Fortunately, We never got above 11,600, so my buy stops never got filled.

I mentioned yesterday that it might be a good idea to fade the bullish fervor I saw and heard on the Cable business channels. We are trading at 11,350. I have covered 1/3 of the shorts. I am leaving the stops on the […]

Neutral to bearish for corn. Very bearish for wheat, with the world and the US awash in wheat. Pretty friendly for Soybeans.
I think Thursday and Friday will be more important than today’s action. Quite frankly the volume today was less than I had expected.

On a bearish note, China has retaliated for Currency Tariff bill by fixing the yuan. Is this the start of a trade war? I hope not. History shows that trade wars generally lead to hot wars. Not a particularly enticing thought to imagine.

It certainly would be negative for commodity prices here in the USA. Take away Chinese demands […]

Buy the rumor sell the fact? Rumors that China bought beans. Nice to have calls on. Limit up corn the day before the number?
Personally, I think this could be the ultimate buy the rumor sell the fact.
A $2.00 corn break. 73cent rally back? That’s not even 1/2 way back.
6.75 is 1/2 way back. 7.00 is 62% retracement.
I would have no new positions on futures wise in front of this number.
If you have an idea, spend 4 to 8 cents on some November options which have 10 days left til expiration.

40 cent limit today for corn opens door […]

Risk on trade today. China back off vacation. Some headway w/ some European banks.
Market likes the risk on trade for a Monday. Dow Futures have no real resistance until 11,450. Right now we are at 11,300. Profitable trade selling that trend line at 11,120 was good one day scalp.
For now, I stand aside and look to sell into that 11,450-500 level.

The cheap corn calls I suggested buying last week are looking good. I am keeping half and taking half off in front of Wednesday’s USDA.

Today I like buying March bean calls as well. I liked buying a $2.00 break. I really […]

Take profit or lock in profit on the Dow jones futures short. Short at 11120, high was 11178. now trading 11024.
Lock in the profit. Take money off the table.
Stay short over the weekend.
Its 1146 AM now.

CER.
That is all

Ok, Well 103K is better than zero. For this economy to get going it needs to be generating 300K a month. I am not holding my breath.
The stock indexes like it. 11,169 is current high. I am short at 1120. That’s the trend line.
Have a buy stop in front of this short, in case we run higher.

Try as I may, I can’t get excited about the market running above 11220. If this short at 11,120 gets filled, I’d be inclined to stand aside and wait for a better risk/reward play.

I am starting to think that corn and beans are going […]

The Dow looks to be mired in a 1300 point trading range between 11,700 and 10,400. Two trading days ago when we traded below the 10,400 level, a lot of traders got caught selling into new lows. When the waterfall of selling did not follow through, we had a 300 point rally in about 20 minutes. Talk about selling it in the hole.
We’ve now Bounced 640 points from that panic low. Bounce is the word.

There’s a trendline resistance at 11,120. If we rally there, please have a resting order to sell it. Have a buy stop above it so you know your maximum […]

CZ corn has had a $2.07 cent break in one month. The August high at $7.79 melted down to last night’s low at 572 1/4. That’s a 26% haircut in a month. Also we went down to our Summer lows at 5.75 and we held.
I would buy cheap out of the money calls….6.70 calls for 10 cents for the next 53 days.

I would buy these and hold them as long as the 5.75 level holds. If that level does not work, then immediately sell those calls off. We could be looking at Corn 08, when we broke all the way down to sub […]

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