Blog Archive

Dow Support we can look to? 10909, 10713, 10579, 10401 could all come into play today.

S&P, 1133, 1112, 1103, 1076 would be levels we would look for support. We seem to be knee jerking from Europe and Asia panicking because they had no where else to sell because of our Labor Day holiday.

I would want to be short this week. I think Thursday, no matter what the President says or the Republicans say, we’ll spike lower the moment he says “Good Evening”.

The exaggerated sell off which will come at that point, probably, will be a good spike down to buy. You have […]

Last Thursday before Mr. Bernanke spoke, I listed 11,674 as a sale level in the Dow.

This morning, after the unchanged employment figure, the market has given us the chance to take out 378 point. That’s $3,780.00 for every contract you have on.

I would cover 2/3 of the position for a profit. I would put a buy stop in at 11,450 to 11,550 on a buy stop on the other 1/3.

That is all for this morning. I thought the bounce was over done. A relief rally after the contrived panic of August.

I really don’t know […]

We reached some decent resistance in S&P at the 1210/1211 level . 12,425 target hit as well in the Dow Futures.

Not saying the top is in, by any means, but i think we are over done a bit on this “relief” rally.

August, as usual, was a month where the program traders take advantage of the market’s dirty little secret. 1/2 of Europe is gone on vacation. Traders and managers who are up money on the year after 6 months are taking a chunk of vacation time off as well.

Generally, the only people active in August are […]

Tomorrow Bernanke Speaks.

My guess is it will be a non-event.

Unless things un ravel more, and i define unravel, as unemployment accelerating above 10% or 2) Europe Defaulting on its debt: I can’t see a reason for a QE3.

I think, you might see a push for a debt forgiveness act, or something along those lines, where, basically, US consumers can clear the decks once and for all.

There is a feeling that the banks are sitting on a ton of cash. There might be a push to let them use that cash and write off […]

I wrote before how the month of August is typically horrendous for volatility. Program traders with their “disruptor” programs push thin markets around.

I found it interesting about a month ago I was doing my weekly taping from the floor of the cme. I mentioned that the markets could get thin. The moderator, who’s pay check is signed by the cme, asked me not to mention that, because they like to talk up their liquidity. What a joke.

Any how, the stock indexes still look ill. I imagine they will remain so until November 2012 when we get through this election.

I wrote before how the month of August is typically horrendous for volatility. Program traders with their “disruptor” programs push thin markets around.

I found it interesting about a month ago I was doing my weekly taping from the floor of the cme. I mentioned that the markets could get thin. The moderator, who’s pay check is signed by the cme, asked me not to mention that, because they like to talk up their liquidity. What a joke.

Any how, the stock indexes still look ill. I imagine they will remain so until November 2012 when we get through this election.

In the Dow futures, the recent high was on July 22nd at 12,750.

The low of the move was 11,401 on Tuesday Night. Today’s high 11,296 is a 38% retracement. The next level I’d sell into would be 11,574 which is 1/2 way back.

2,349 point break. 1/2 way back is 11,574.

That is all.

CER

The call sides of the straddles will be worth a chunck today.

Corn yield estimated dropped almost 7 bushels an acre.

Yield for corn 153 vs. 158 pencils out to a 12.9 crop

Yield for beans 41.4 down from 43.4

Corn and beans should be 30 to 60 higher for the first five minutes of trade

Once caveat: This could be a chance for Funds who have gotten crushed in other positions, to take massive profits in grains.

This could set up a higher opening, lower close scenario.

Watch for that action.

I’d be exiting the straddles […]

More silliness in Stocks as markets try to decide which way to go.. as of this writing its 450 lower in the Dow. S&P’s down 44 at 1128.. Remember S&P at 1300? For 6 months, starting last February, S&P cash could not get above 13.50 or below 12.50

The break out below was painful.

I bring this up because it looks suspiciously like the November Bean Chart. Beans have been stuck between 12.80 and 14.00 for ?? 7 months.

The break out above or below will be impressive.

Corn has been in a 1.50 range for 2 months, 5.50 up to […]

On July 22, 2011 we had a high tick at 12,749 in the Dow Futures. Last night’s low at 10,401 came at around 2 AM, Fortunately for me, I was sleeping and missed witnessing that tick first hand.

My long position at 10800 was long since exited, thanks to my stops. I had only wanted to risk a certain amount. That stop was triggered. We settled to day at 11,215, which would have been a 400 point profit. But at what cost?

I am glad I took my loss.

Taking a loss is key to long term success trading. […]