Blog Archive

On April 27th, I wrote a note here saying that I did not want to own the US Dollar until it traded down to 71. On that day, we were trading at 73.70. Five trading days later, the US dollar fell to 72.86, which was the lowest tick since July of 2008. I felt that we would grind down to the 71 level.
I was wrong. Clearly wrong, as born out by the market’s action.

Interestingly, the US dollar found support within days of the IMF warning that the US was on its way out and would bow to China in the next 5 […]

I talked this week about 100 dollar barrel oil being a fulcrum. It seems that supply/demand has finally reared its head, with gasoline, crude oil, heating oil and the whole complex coming under sell pressure.

One thing seems to be evident is 4.30 and plus gasoline affects all US citizens usage, be they “rich” or “poor”. With an average 20 gallon gas tank in a car, when you have to spend north of 85 bucks to fill up people think twice about gas usage.

July corn currently is locked limit offer, down 30 cents. there is a gap down below at 660-654 which beckons to […]

4 million more corn acres than last year, raised ethanol usage, but lowered domesic usage, raised carry out for old crop, but lowered the 2011 trend line yield 3 bu/ per acre.

Early opening call, 20- 30 lower. It looks bearish for old crop, bullish for new crop.

Wheat carry out is bearish. Soybean carryout is neutral.

That’s my early take on this USDA.

At 10 AM, I think we’ll be back to trading the weather forcast for these grains.

Good Trading
CER

Supply and demand figures will be released Wednesday May 11th at 730AM CST. I have no idea what the government might say, bullish or bearish.
I know we have just had a nice sell off, fueled by the general commoditiy cotraction lower we just sat through last week..
As of this writing, planting progress was just released about an hour ago. Corn was 40% planted, while the bulls were looking for 32% done. What’s the difference? We’ll be sharply lower tonight, I believe. Which may give longer term bulls a break to take advantage of to get long.
Look at a July or Sep call […]

Target of 35.25 in Silver was hit. I am out of my short position. Ditto my shorts in gold. Those were exited at 1480 last week on the dip down on Thursday.

I am flat currently in metals.

We have a USDA supply/demand report coming out Wednesday.
I will write about that later.
Right now I am trying to track down the gentleman I heard on the radio 2 weeks ago who was all bulled up the metals.
I want to personally thank him for giving me the signal to get short.

I had no idea the sell of would be that nasty. […]

First off, unemployment is now at 9%. US economy generated 244K new non farm payrolls, 90 percent coming from the private sector.

I picked the 94-95 level as supportin the crude oil yesterday. I am surprised we spiked down there early. Surprised but happy. Its 808 AM and we have bounced 5 cents off those lows and are trading at 99… Talk about incredible volatility… If you don’t have your orders resting and waiting, you’ll get left behind on these moves.

I like buying some cheap silver and gold calls now. The weak longs have been flushed out by the margin clerks. Now the rally […]

With Gas at 445 here in Chicago, i wonder if those gas stations will run out to drop the price with today’s break in crude. from 110 down to 102 in one day? Will there be a congressional investigation as to why these prices moved lower so fast? BTW I am being sarcastic here people.

Lets cover where crude has been. Last year we were at 73.50 a barrel. The recent high was 114.83.

1/2 way back is 94 bucks a barrel. 100 dollar barrel will be a big deal.
The trend over the past 2 years was up. A bull move from our […]

Its great when a plan comes together. 38.00 is a 50% retracement of the rally which started at 26.23 back on Jan 28th. Silver took 3 months to almost double, and one week to give back 50% of that 3-month move.

I have sold puts against my existing long puts. I can’t thank that Radio announcer enough.

Look out for a melt down day here in a general commodity sell off. It will probably get over done, as traders head for the hills in front of Friday’s unemployment number.

Please make sure if you have profits you take steps to ensure they remain profits. Do […]

Silver low so far today: 38.94 Gold low so far: 1505. US dollar, 72.860…33 month low going back to July 08

Interestingly, if you pull up a long term chart of the Dollar Index, there is a massive resistance up at the 89.00 level. From a support standpoint, the failure of the 74.50 support band opens the door down to the April 08 low at 71.05

To give you some idea how far the dollar has moved, the high in 2001 and 2002 was up at 121 level… Back in 1985-1986 the Dollar index had been at the 128 level. That’s an even more depressing […]

silver has pulled back 38% at 40.85. Next support is 50% pullback at 38.00 If that does not hold, I’d love to see a melt down to 35.25.
Right now it looks pretty ugly for the metal bulls. Especially those who followed the hype and bought off fear.
Gold should drop back to 1502 or possibly 1478. 1455 would be a screaming buy.

Grains look like they are ready to head lower. I’d be careful getting long here. There’s a lot of work to do after a double in the last 8 months.

Good Trading
CER