Blog Archive

Dow Jones cash settles at 11,858. We are still short from 400 points above on some contracts, with buy stops protecting profits.

I am out of the Dollar trade as of today. The bounce I was looking for was half hearted, and there is too much speculative action in the Dollar/Yen cross trade.

So, in my opinion, be short, or stand aside.

For those of you who read my letter, you can see how I was trying to buy the panic break in the grains.
The bottom came when I had gotten down to a skeleton position after being repeatedly stopped out on new longs […]

Dow cash looks like that 11666 was the right point to cover shorts and get flat.
I am still short a few, but might get stopped out any minute here. Currently we are 11781 in the cash Dow, up 168.00 There are worse things than taking 600 to 700 points on a short winning position. Each contract paid off an average of $6,500 bucks. I can only hope you had a couple dozen on.

I am watching the long US dollar position. I am not sure where its going, but right now its a push at worse, with a huge upside. I’ll take that all […]

Dow cash looks like that 11666 was the right point to cover shorts and get flat.
I am still short a few, but might get stopped out any minute here. Currently we are 11781 in the cash Dow, up 168.00 There are worse things than taking 600 to 700 points on a short winning position. Each contract paid off an average of $6,500 bucks. I can only hope you had a couple dozen on.

I am watching the long US dollar position. I am not sure where its going, but right now its a push at worse, with a huge upside. I’ll take that all […]

Cover shorts from 12,400 here at 11,660. This is a 50% retracement of the rally which started after Thanksgiving. We rallied from 10,920 up to 12,400 in 3 months.
This is a breather.

I am exiting 75% of the position. I am leaving the other 25 percent on, just in case we break hard down to 11,500… 11,487 is a 62% retracement of the move, plus it coincides with the round number effect. Round numbers attract attention and trade from both bull and bears.

The investment community is heading for safety.

Soon, they will show us where the bottom is.

I have stopped trying to […]

Yesterday, they assured the world the sea water and borium was doing the job. If there is another Chernobyl, short term its bearish.
Longer term, it has to be bullish for commodities. Japan imports huge amounts of corn. Unless things degenerate sharply, this break will be looked at in 6 months as a screaming buy. In the mean time, I am not sure where the floor is.
I already wrote I like buying CK 650 and I like buying 13.00 SK. Just look to use sell stops.

For existing positions, lets continue to manage our short positions in the Dow from,,, wait for it… […]

Uncertainty after the Japanese Earthquake(s) has given us increased volatility.

Position re-cap:
Short the crude from an average of 102.00 after the 103.50/60 level did not hold.

Long the dollar index from the 76.50 level with a stop near 75.00. That position gave us some profits last week. It remains to be seen if we will run up towards the 80 to 81 dollar level. At this point, its a winner with an upside kicker.

Last week I wrote about the double top in Dow Cash at 12,400. And the fact that 12,000 in Cash Dow and 1300 in SP cash would be […]

Currently short cash dow from 12,400 sales. Short oil from 103 and adding to shorts on the panic flush. Thank you copier salesman. If I see you I will give you a gift certificate for dinner in the City.

The US dollar is looking like a the place to be. I have moved protective sell stops up on 2/3 and have taken profits on the initial 1/3.
Ditto on my crude shorts. Take profits on 1/3 of the position.

I think if we get a break in corn down to the 604 level, its a buy. A break to 1275 in beans would be a […]

We had a crop report this morning, so I am in the office early. The US dollar is up 50 cents today,, hmmm. right now the high tick is 77.28.
Adjust your sell stops to insure profits. Make sure your winner does not turn into a loser.
That is all.

One interesting note, overnight news, China said they see signs that their economy is slowing down. Fill in the blanks as to what you think this will mean for US markets, and US grain markets in particular. I can give you the bullish story or the bearish story, but what really matters is what the […]

The decision to buy the US dollar I chose about 7 days ago is shaping up better and better. Right now I am able to insure that at worst the position will be a small winner on 1/3, a push on the other 2/3. As the market continues to rally, hopefully, through the rest of the week, the position becomes profitable. The first upside target is 77.55 and then 77.89. I would love to see a spike up to 79.00, at which point, I would add to the long position, assuming we settle above there.

Over to the Stock Indexes. I stand by my feeling […]

Warning, A true fact.
A gentleman came in to day to fix our copier machine here in the office. He took a look around the office and asked if we were trading anything. We said yes, in fact we were traders and risk managers.

He responded that he just bought some energy stocks, because he heard they were going to go up.

If that’s not a major contrarian signal, I don’t know what is.

A case in point, last 2007/2008 a woman called in out of the blue, and asked about buying “corn stocks”. The high was that week.

I am going to have […]