Blog Archive

Yesterday after the close I wrote that I was bearish, wanted to sell grains, and was not looking to buy breaks.
Today beans settled 34 cents lower, wheat settled 32 cents lower and corn settled 12 cents off its high, but 5 cents lower on the day.
Maintain shorts through Friday. Option expiration could give further sell pressure.

As for the crude, today’s settlement at 84.38 has given me a short position. I am looking to cover around 82. I have a buy stop protecting me above.

That is all.
Hope you sold the grains yesterday.

CER

Just a short note. If crude settles below 85, that opens the door to further correction lower. We may trade all over the place during the day. Where we settle is what counts.

That is all.

CER

Corn has rallied 1.90 in the past 60 trading sessions. Beans have rallied 2.72 cents in the past 60 trading days Wheat has rallied 1.35 in the past 60 trading days.

There are no more bears out there. Every one has turned bullish. Time to think about initiating sells in the face of this massive rally.
Today’s action was weak. I am interested in how we settle for the week, but I think we are shaping up for a 75 cent haircut in the corn, 1.50 haircut in the beans and a 60 cent flush in the wheat.

The cherry on top will be if […]

For the second session in a row, spot crude (CL) settled below a key long term trend line support. I personally will have a sell stop triggered if crude settles below 85.0 An ugly settlement like that should send the bulls for cover. That being said, there is a ton of support on the charts between 83 and 70. I personally like buying the 82.level That would be an even 10.00 bucks of the panic high posted 3 weeks ago. So that’s the rec. Get short and look to cover 82.00 Crude could catch a bid at any point during a probe of that support. […]

86-86.50 was my target from yesterday. I think that was the dip to buy. Be willing to take a dollar heat, down to 85. although. I think you hold your longs with a target to sell 89.35 and then 90.15. Hope you’ve been following this. We have scalped 8 bucks out of crude in the past week.

Tomorrow is USDA S/D number. Again, I expect, if there is a surprise, it will be bearish. We have not had significant pain for the longs in over 6 weeks now. I believe they need to be tested, and sooner or later they will be tested. I’d like […]

Wow, I hope that for those of you who sold crude at 92 on my suggestion still have some shorts left. I never thought we’d break this hard, but, my guess was right, people got short based on fears about Egypt. And were promptly rewarded for their actions with swift losses. A nickle a contract is 5k a contract. If you had a couple hundred contracts on, it was a costly expedition.

Be that as it may, the longer term trend line is still bullish. Therefore, you want to be buying this break as an opportunity. I would want to scale in buy at 86.50, […]

Currently the low of the session in CL crude is 88.11. I was looking for a pullback to these levels.
I would cover profits, or at least lower protective buy stops to guarantee profits.

As for the Grains,
I would not want to be short wheat or beans today.
CH should be sold the first time it prints 7.00. ZW should be sold on the first print at 9.00. SH should be sold the first print at 14.50.

Stock indexes continue to climb the wall of pessimism and worry.

That is all for now.

Good Trading
CER

88.05 is a good place to cover crude shorts if you initiated them on the spike to 92.00 Interestingly, the trend is still bullish, so this is a dip to buy.

Once again, the once vaunted unemployment number went off like a wet fire cracker. The US economy produced enough jobs to fill the civic arena for a Styx concert, 36K..

Is that really job growth? The unemployment rate drops to 9% over all.

Again, I am waiting for the “new economist” to say that 8% was full employment. In the 1980’s the holy grail was 6%. That was considered “full” employment. So its […]

Today’s high in Crude was 92.05 we broke down to 90. Currently, as I write this its 90.47.

All I can say is I hope you took the trade and scalped the profit.

That is all.

Good Trading

Look at the daily chart for CL, Crude. Three days ago, we were down at 85.11. Riots in Egypt, no one knows if the Suez is safe, and crude rallies 7 dollars in 2 trading days…. Oil hits the front pages as people panic, buy, and …. wait for it… if they bought at 91 or higher, are suddenly under water.

92.00 to 92.50 has been hit 8 times in the last month, and has been a sell EVERY TIME… Hello, that’s called resistance, to all those “fundamental only” traders who discount technicals…

I would continue to sell that level, with a buy stop above, […]