Blog Archive

The bounce back in equities to those numbers has given me pause. Perhaps we will return to being cautiously bullish. I think its wise to step back and take a neutral position at these levels.
I am naturally inclined to sell these levels.
However, the few remaining shorts I have on Stock indexes were profitable, but were exited from with buy stops during this recent rally back.

I am inclined to think we may be entering a phase of sideways trading. Quite frankly I don’t have an opinion as to how wide the range will be. On the geopolitical front, a lot is in […]

FYI, if you go back to my letters on Jan 23 and 24, I suggested selling the 12,000 print in Dow cash and the 1300 print in S&P Cash. currently, Dow is down 167 and the S&P 500 is down 22 HANDLES!! Sweet when a plan turns out.
Its always the thing you can’t expect that turns the tide. Egypt having its government overthrown, is one thing no one expected…Certainly I didn’t read any thing about it a month ago..
What is going to happen to the Suez Canal?? Time will tell but markets don’t like uncertainty.
We had rallied so much. Just […]

Crude finished its 10-day, $7.00 break from 92.50 down to today’s low at 85.07… Its Friday. Its the last day of the month. Traders will take profits. Buying could push us up to 87.87, and then 1/2 way back of the move, which i always like to sell, 88.74. Today I am a small long. My buy stops were triggered when we traded above 86.15.

The longer term trend line for crude remains bullish. crude has made higher major highs and higher major lows for the last 6 months. It does look a little toppy at the 92.50 level.. If we can settle above 92.50, […]

Fan fare, trumpets and three cheers emanated across the assorted TV Crews as the Dow printed 12,000. S&P Cash couldn’t get the 1300 print, however, running out of steam at 1299.74.

I think the next 2 months will be tell tale for these indexes. If all the money that is sitting on the sidelines gets bulled up, the ensuing rally could be sweet revenge for the buy and hold perma bulls.

I will re-iterate what I have been writing here for 6 months, There will be a cartoon, in a national media paper or magazine, with Obama riding the bull back from the March […]

Fan fare, trumpets and three cheers emanated across the assorted TV Crews as the Dow printed 12,000. S&P Cash couldn’t get the 1300 print, however, running out of steam at 1299.74.

I think the next 2 months will be tell tale for these indexes. If all the money that is sitting on the sidelines gets bulled up, the ensuing rally could be sweet revenge for the buy and hold perma bulls.

I will re-iterate what I have been writing here for 6 months, There will be a cartoon, in a national media paper or magazine, with Obama riding the bull back from the March […]

A daily chart of gold looks a little ugly for the bulls. It looks like a head and shoulders. I wouldn’t be in a hurry to try to buy gold. First buy would be 1297 Second buy I really like is 1265. I wrote about 2 months ago that I was going to scream if I saw one more cash for gold store open, or heard one more right wing nut on the AM dial talking about “US dollar is fiat money” or you have to own gold because the bible tells you too.

Its always been a good idea to have 10 percent of […]

This morning’s break in crude went right to the target of 86.34 with a low at 86.30.
Resting orders there covered all shorts.
It looks like we might have another flush, as the market focus shifts to the Fed.
Honestly? Do you really think the fed will raise rates? I am in the opinion they may do some sabre rattling, most likely as a kow Tow to our recent Chinese visitors.
After all they do own 11 percent of our debt..

However, when the smoke clears, we still have high unemployment, with very little real indication of inflation, when you take out energy and […]

Good Morning,
Dow cash is only 75 ticks away from that 12,000 print. Granted the national press won’t get their toes curled up until we settle above 11,000.. However, when Dow cash hits that print, I would want to initiate sell in Dow Futures.

As for Corn, Wheat and Beans…
Its looks like a relatively sleepy Monday.

CH looks like its made a double top at 6.66-6.67. Sell there the next time we head up there. Don’t risk more than 3-5 cents however.

Crude Oil continues to punish all the people who got long up above 91.00, 87.00 could be a short term bottom. Use […]

11,905 was today’s high tick in dow cash. 12,000 can’t be far behind. And the feeling is still bearish. This is shaping up to be a creeping rally. Those are the hardest to trade, because it takes time to get paid off for being on the “right” side of the market movement.

However, an 83 tick trading range is tough to navigate through. Ditto S&P 500… High tick today of 1291.21;can 1300 be far away, I don’t think so. However less than a ten handle range is tough to navigate through.

Corn and Beans look good, but honestly, they are both vulnerable to corrections. Wheat […]

Can anyone say “volatility”?? Just yesterday CH broke from a new 2-1/2 year high at 666 1/4. The low was 7.27 1/2. 7.30 was a 50% RT of the 7 week, 71 cent up move.
Apparently, that was enough to get buyers back in to the market.
More importantly, the Rumor Mill was out again that China was buying US corn. When that rumor came out, CH was at 6.32 we settled the day at 6.54 1/2.

What is most impressive is that Corn did this on its own. The dollar was up, crude oil was down 2 bucks, gold was down 20 bucks…. […]