Blog Archive

Corn made a new 2-1/2 year high at 666 1/4. that marked a 1.46 rally from the November low, and a 71 cent rally from the January low.
Profit taking is in order.
If you’ve been reading my blog, I have been a cautious seller of new highs, ALWAYS entering a buy stop when entering a new short position.

I personally sold corn yesterday, when we started melting after the opening. I have moved my buy stop lower to ensure a profit.
Technically, 6.30 was 1/2 way back. I covered shorts there this morning. I want to cover more shorts at 6.22 which is […]

After the long weekend, it seems that we once again will have fresh buying interest in corn and beans. Demand rationing levels are seemingly above the horizon still.
March corn traded up to a new high at 6.62. I don’t think there will be real reaction until we get to 6.75, 6.85 and then 7.00.
Producers are sitting tight. No new selling seems to be showing up, for the time being.
May corn has rallied 1.44 from its Nov 23rd low. Bottom line, when the blow off top comes, it should set up for a spectacular pullback.
My sell signal will be major […]

China raised rates 50 pbs overnight. Also they let it be known that they will be limiting commodity purchases…

Quite frankly, this smells like a bluff to me.

China is becoming the little boy who cried wolf.

They are notorious now for releasing comments which are intended to produce bearish moves from the market.

It worked 2 or 3 times last year. However, people watched what happened after bearish news came from China. In fact, they used it to buy their beans cheaper.

Most of the trade has caught on now. I don’t think it will have the same impact this year.

This […]

First, Dow Cash, sell the first time at 11,800.

Second Crude Oil, Sell at 92.50. On the buy side, buy at 89.82.

Third, Gold, Sell at 1398.

When you initiate the sell, also place your buy stop.

I still have a feeling that we are due for a correction eventually in the grains, but I’d be very careful trying to pick a top here.

That is all.
CER

Today was a very bullish number for the grains. Especially the beans and corn. I am not going to pull punches. I am glad that my spec’s were only puts.

Yes we gave up value in those puts. They will most likely expire worthless. However, I would continue to use them in front of numbers. Precisely because they limit your risk to a known factor.

Corn and beans were limit bid early in the morning, but came off late in the afternoon.

These are historical prices, and it looks like today’s report set the stage for higher prices over the next four months.

In […]

The USDA final number for 2010 will be out in 12 minutes. As I write this, I have to lean towards predicting a lower day at 1:15 in the grains when the smoke clears.

My experience is that markets serve to punish, to a certain extent, as many people as possible.

From talking to producers and other traders, I would say that universally the feeling is bullish.

When every one is going one way, and is comfortable, that’s when you have to head the other way.

I am not predicting armegeddon. It just seems that with grains at 2-1/2 year highs, and with […]

CH never got down to 591. The lowest it traded was 5.95. I would hold off now in front of the Tuesday USDA number on trying to buy a dip and the scalp out of it.

The dow trade was and is still profitable. I am comfortable being short here now with a buy stop above protecting profits. Assuming you got short dow futures around 11650, today’s low at 11520 gave you a 130 point profit. Protect that profit and let it ride to the down side.

One caveat heading into this USDA report.

Every one I talk to is bullish.

Therefore, you have […]

I had a target at 11,800 for dow cash. Best we could do was 11,742 on Wednesday.
Sell it on a rally. Look to cover 1/2 at 11440. cover the other 1/2 at 11,340. I would want to get long at 11,340 level.

That is all.
CER

Corn is breaking here on Friday. If CH gives you a chance, buy it at 591. Risk a nickle.
If we break to 577 1/2 get long there against 574.

That is all.

No Big Surprise 93 point trading range in Dow Futures so far today. Unemployment, as far as giving short term trading opportunities, has lost its luster.

Very briefly,
I would want to buy any big dip in front of this number, be it corn, wheat, or beans.

I am especially friendly beans.

I am writing this on Thursday Jan 6th at 4:10 pm.

If you remember last Jan 2010’s number, we broke hard off this number. We then drifted in a dismal sideways range for 5 months. Once farmer’s threw in the towel and got bearish, sold out their grain, most of the corn was sold at 4.00 and 5.00 corn, a lot of beans got sold at 10.00, and we all know how wheat bottomed out below 4.40 and then […]