Blog Archive

Very briefly,
I would want to buy any big dip in front of this number, be it corn, wheat, or beans.

I am especially friendly beans.

I am writing this on Thursday Jan 6th at 4:10 pm.

If you remember last Jan 2010’s number, we broke hard off this number. We then drifted in a dismal sideways range for 5 months. Once farmer’s threw in the towel and got bearish, sold out their grain, most of the corn was sold at 4.00 and 5.00 corn, a lot of beans got sold at 10.00, and we all know how wheat bottomed out below 4.40 and then […]

Back in the late 80’s the market began focusing on the monthly unemployment number as a catalyst for major moves in markets. Of course, long term interest rates were in the double digits. A “great mortgage” was under 10%.

When the unemployment number came out, there was a very real impact that the fed would move, either tightening or easing, depending on the tea leave interpreters.

What is my point? Well, with interest rates effectively at zero. With the government printing its QE2 for 600 Billion, with unemployment hovering around 10%, that unemployment number has less and less impact.

Time was, if you were […]

CH could drop another 20 cents a bushel. I want to buy corn between 577 and then again at 564. Seeing as we were just at 6.35 two days ago, and we are heading into a Jan 12th USDA number, we should see continued short term panic selling.

Wheat is a difficult trade, with absolutely no follow through. It’s easy to get chopped up on Wheat. There are two trend lines I am watching in WH. We are approaching the first today. If we settle below 777, we are heading to 740. If 740 does not hold, they could turn this market out, puking down […]

Its a new year. The bulls are out across the board. My advice is to buy dips, going with the market psychology for January, at least for the first ten trading days.

There is a lot of money on the sidelines poised to jump into the market. I wrote last week that the Cash Dow has 10,800 as a target. As of this writing, that’s only 105 points a way… We could be there after lunch… The broader S&P is being inexorably drawn to 1300. I’d be long looking for that print. We are 30 handles away from that nice, fat, round number target. Its […]

Its a new year. The bulls are out across the board. My advice is to buy dips, going with the market psychology for January, at least for the first ten trading days.

There is a lot of money on the sidelines poised to jump into the market. I wrote last week that the Cash Dow has 10,800 as a target. As of this writing, that’s only 105 points a way… We could be there after lunch… The broader S&P is being inexorably drawn to 1300. I’d be long looking for that print. We are 30 handles away from that nice, fat, round number target. Its […]

I have not written an entry in a bit. Today is the last trading day of 2010. As I write this, Dow Cash is bumping up against 11,600, S&P cash is bumping up against 1260. These are the highest levels since Oct 09, a fact that has been trumpeted far and wide by the “new” bulls who are waking up after hiding under rocks since the July 4th weekend this Summer.

S&P cash looks like it will run at 1280 and then 1300. If we get a surge of money jumping back into the markets in Jan we should head for those targets. There […]

Gold looks vulnerable to a pullback from current levels down to 1330 and possibly 1300. Silver looks vulnerable to a break to 25.60 and possibly 24.00. I would using rallies to sell into.
That is all.
Happy Holidays. December will continue to be a chop fest of daily volatility. Trade by appointment only.

Good Trading

March wheat has sold off almost 40 cents cents in the last 3 trading sessions. If you check my entries, that was a trade I suggested. I continue to like being long beans and short wheat.

That is all

The Dow Cash finally gave me my 11,469 print today. Traded right up to 11,499.70. Right now its 12:08 Chicago Time. I can’t believe we won’t get that 15,000 print, just to give the TV commentators something to crow about. Look for that Newsweek or Time cover (or some other weekly periodical) with a cover story touting the “5000 point OBAMA RALLY.. If they don’t they are missing a marketing opportunity..

Now its time for the Dow 20000 touts to pop up. Like a shooting gallery, they are sitting behind their office doors, waiting to be on TV… All I can say is Beware…

Next […]

Today is Friday, Dec 10th, about 9:51 AM. Crude is down .53 at 87.74, Four days ago I wrote that I wanted to sell the 90 dollar level as a new position. i would cover 2/3 of the position today. Take the money and run. It’s December, markets are thin and we risked one dollar. We were not able to get below 87.50. I like taking the money on 2/3 of the position, and leaving a buy stop above at 89.50.
That is all for crude for now.

I think its a good time to sell some fat cattle. I think I’d like to be […]