Blog Archive

Currently short gold at 1425. The high yesterday was 1432. I had a sell stop below 1425 yesterday to enter the market on a stop market order. Currently the market is at 1391. I want to cover at 1384 to 1382. 1382 is a level I would consider getting long. Its the 1/2 way point of the recent 100 dollar rally which started with the low at 1331 on November 16th. I really like buying at 1382, however, I want a tight sell stop.
If the wheels fall off this rally, and the correction goes back to 1370, I think that is a gift. Have […]

If you have read my daily rec’s lately, you can see that I am a big fan of selling new historical highs. These give good trading opportunities. One dollar break on a one lot in gold is 100 bucks. 20 dollar break is a $2,000.00 opportunity on a ONE lot.

This is shaping up to be a key reversal day, in the metals, as the metals make new highs on bullish news from Washington, everyone gets long too late on the news, and the market punishes them for their decision to get long at the top.

That is all I have to say about that.

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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on Sixty minutes last night. In general, it was a non event. I believe many folks got short stock indexes, got long the metals, and grains, looking for a surprise. Those who made large bearish speculative moves prior to this anticipated speech, most certainly were disappointed today.

As I write this, the Stock indexes remain firm, only down 17 points in the cash Dow and 2.50 in Cash S&P. The US dollar indexes move up to the 80.00 level and then backed off. However traders who were looking for a sell of in the dollar from some Bernanke surprise had […]

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on Sixty minutes last night. In general, it was a non event. I believe many folks got short stock indexes, got long the metals, and grains, looking for a surprise. Those who made large bearish speculative moves prior to this anticipated speech, most certainly were disappointed today.

As I write this, the Stock indexes remain firm, only down 17 points in the cash Dow and 2.50 in Cash S&P. The US dollar indexes move up to the 80.00 level and then backed off. However traders who were looking for a sell of in the dollar from some Bernanke surprise had […]

The unemployment number, for much of the 1980’s 1990’s and up until about 2007, was often the most anticipated number. Very often the volatility that went along with that number meant it was one day that both bulls and bears had a chance to make good money trading the markets through the day. Specifically the 30 year down to the euro dollars, (the entire yield curve) would rock.

I continue to think that with interest rates at 0, effectively, and official unemployment hovering around 10 percent, the impact of the number as a trading opportunity has been cut significantly. Simply stated, its an opportunity, […]

The unemployment number, for much of the 1980’s 1990’s and up until about 2007, was often the most anticipated number. Very often the volatility that went along with that number meant it was one day that both bulls and bears had a chance to make good money trading the markets through the day. Specifically the 30 year down to the euro dollars, (the entire yield curve) would rock.

I continue to think that with interest rates at 0, effectively, and official unemployment hovering around 10 percent, the impact of the number as a trading opportunity has been cut significantly. Simply stated, its an opportunity, […]

On March 6,2009 the Dow Jones posted a low at 6,469.95… Fast Forward to this November 5th, just 18 trading sessions ago when we traded to a high at 11,451.53…
I am not trying to call a high, but for a very long time, if you’ve been following my daily musings, I have felt that a rally up to 11,469.95 was inevitable. For some, a high at 11,451, just 18 points away from a perfect 5,000 point rally, was close enough.

I myself got bearish there and although it took a little time, had my short positions pay off. I still have some 10,700 puts […]

Today we came within 2 1/2 cents of my upside target in CZ (December Corn) at 555.
Just goes to show what patience can give us. I am still long a small position from the original buy in at 5.11

My shorts in the Stock indexes were stopped out, thankfully. We booked profits, however, I did not feel the need to flip and get long.
Some time between now and the end of January, we will have a chance to buy on a break.
There is a seasonal tendency for markets to rally through December, in thin holiday trade.
As far as I am […]

We didn’t quite get to 10900, my target to cover 1/4 of my shorts. 10,929, or 29 points is the low tick in Dow Cash, Dow futures, printed 10916.

I can’t see anything short term bullish for the stock indexes, save for the seasonal tendency to rally through the end of the year. I had thought the North Korea uncertainty, perhaps the Wiki leaks issue, or the European debt monsters would push us lower.

I still am bearish, and I will leave it at that. However, as always, I have buy stops insuring profitable shorts which have taken the last 5 weeks to develop […]

My honest advice is to be very very careful over the next 5 weeks. Traders who had good years are backing off, decreasing their activity, planning for 2011.

The markets are thin at best, with less liquidity translating to more risk.
One thing I have learned, is that over the last 22 years of trading, generally the next 5 weeks is a mine field. But that’s my personal opinion.

I would have very few positions left on, and i would not be very aggressive. That’s my advice.

That being said, there are still opportunities.

Overnight, CZ came within 1/2 cent of my upside target […]