Blog Archive

Trend line violations can give a trader night mares. Just 2 days ago, I wrote about the 513 area and how a settlement below that trend line intersection would open the door to a test of the 5.00 level.

The key was the settlement. We settled right on that trend line. So, yesterday, when we traded clearly below it during the first ten minutes of trading, every one and his brother got short, speculating we would go down and get the 5.00 print, hit sell stops and then explore the space below. With the funds still long 360K contracts, that was pretty logical logic. […]

I was looking for a rally like this yesterday in the grains. When we didn’t get it, i thought we would get lower. We got down to 506 in CZ after the opening, got all the locals short and then snapped higher twenty cents. I was still long a small amount from Sunday night’s spike down to 509, when I bought 511’s. I had a stop on those at 505. For some reason, I did not get stopped out, and low and be hold, we rallied higher. Of course, tomorrow we could be right down lower again. This volatility give you a lot of opportunity.

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No one could have predicted that North Korea and South Korea would start shelling one another overnight. However, this looks like a push which could give us short term-flush. I am not talking about a debacle, by any means, but a healthy correction was overdue. The stock indexes completed a 2 year stealth rally, with the Dow cash alone rallying back almost 5,000 point from the Panic Lows of Spring 2009, when we had a low tick of 6,649.00

This bearish world development, combined with thin holiday markets, could set the table for a flush across the board, in grains as well.
Already, overnight, December […]

We are at a key point at this 513 area in CZ. My upside target got stopped out overnight. I am thinking about buying more here, but it looks vulnerable to a continued sell off. There is a trend line going all the way back to our June Contract Lows. We are dancing around that trend line. Right now we have only one hour left before the market closes. These are holiday markets, which Thanksgiving around the corner on Thursday. Holiday markets can be quite volatile and subject to selling pressure. If the pros can lean on this thing and get us headed towards 5.00, […]

So far, we have seen a failure of the grains to extend the rally. With 45 minutes left in the day, I would anticipate further lower price movement. Its the Friday before Thanksgiving week, so many traders will begin curtailing their activity. In fact, there generally will be less volume over the next 2 months in general, barring unforeseen surprises. Lack of volume due to a lack of interest translates in to much higher volatility, and and risk.

CZ is setting up to be an outside day down, on the charts which is bearish. Although I am still long from 511 in CZ I only […]

Still long, have moved my stops up on 1/3. Took profits on another 1/3. Looking to exit at 555 and turn around and go short at that level.

In the Dow Cash, waiting for a flush tomorrow down to 10873 to cover shorts. I want to get long if the Dow trades down to 10700.

Once again, we have been spun around by Chinese comments. When they need a rally, they talk of importing corn from Argentina. When they want a break, they talk about arresting speculators in their country and raising reserve requirements.
These Chinese, with all their Communist Training, are better Capitalists than […]

Still long, have moved my stops up on 1/3. Took profits on another 1/3. Looking to exit at 555 and turn around and go short at that level.

In the Dow Cash, waiting for a flush tomorrow down to 10873 to cover shorts. I want to get long if the Dow trades down to 10700.

Once again, we have been spun around by Chinese comments. When they need a rally, they talk of importing corn from Argentina. When they want a break, they talk about arresting speculators in their country and raising reserve requirements.
These Chinese, with all their Communist Training, are better Capitalists than […]

The longs a 529 were stopped out. My resting order to buy CZ at 511 was filled last night, CZ traded to a low at 509. The sell stop at 506 1/2 was never in play. We bounced 15 cents to settle at 524. I like being long here. I took 12 cents profit on 1/3 of the position, and will manage it today. I have sell stops below which guarentee profits on the remaining 2/3rd. Over all, I am pleased with the way my targets have been getting hit recently. The key is now, to manage the profit in a disciplined manner.
I am […]

The target in CZ has been hit. Long now at 529. Low today so far is 527 3/4. Look for a 15 to 20 cent rally. Right now I took profits on 1/3 of the position at 530. At this point, its a free trade. I will look to sell another 1/3 at 540. The rest I will hold for a bit. I have a sell stop below the market, in case we roll over and head down to the next support target, 511.

Good Trading

The shorts, in the Stock indexes are working for now. A settlement below 11000 in the Dow should bring […]

This week should be interesting, technically in the Dow Cash. A failure to settle above the 11350 level should open the door down to a test of 10,900 and then 10,700.
The over all intermediate and longer term trend remains bullish. Last week’s 2-year high at 11,454 was a victory for the bulls. A rally from the depths of depression this Summer at the 9600 level over the July 4th weekend, constitutes almost a 2,000 point rally… 1,854 points if you want an exact number.

I would argue, if Obama’s party had won the mid terms, Time or Newsweek or some equally important periodical would […]