Blog Archive

Two days ago, on my last entry, I suggested it was a good time to buy puts on gold. I also had 547 1/2 as a target in CZ (December Corn). I get a few emails when i am early on a call or opinion. Last night’s low in CZ was 545 1/4, and then we bounced higher 8 cents from that low to settle at 552 3/4. next stop is 529 5/8. if the wheels really come off, 511 is a target for CZ.

China talking about controlling inflation overnight. Generally, this spurred a sell off in commodities and another hic up lower for […]

I was listening to, of all things, NPR last night. I like to listen to them because with their general prgressive skew, its very interesting to listen to them when they comment on “the economy” or “capitalist”. It makes me think of a 12 year girl sifting through the “icky” garbage to find her retainer. She really doesn’t want to even talk about it, but she has too, or her parents will have to cough up another 300 bucks.
I was amused, then, to hear NPR talking about all time highs in Gold. They mentioned that the “real” all time high adjusted for inflation, was […]

The market has spoken. It always does. Triple top resistance, once violated, as we just did yesterday, is a powerful statement. That resistance should become support as we head into the future. While I was looking for a fade, to sell new highs, if you read my entry, I wrote about the need to keep buy stops tight. An opinion is only good if it gets you profits.

Upside targets in the Dow Cash: 11,790, 11,867, 11,925, and of course, 12,000.

Upside targets in S&P cash: 1255, 1274, 1303, 1313.

At some point, we will have a good 25% retracement, for now, between QE2 and […]

The market has spoken. It always does. Triple top resistance, once violated, as we just did yesterday, is a powerful statement. That resistance should become support as we head into the future. While I was looking for a fade, to sell new highs, if you read my entry, I wrote about the need to keep buy stops tight. An opinion is only good if it gets you profits.

Upside targets in the Dow Cash: 11,790, 11,867, 11,925, and of course, 12,000.

Upside targets in S&P cash: 1255, 1274, 1303, 1313.

At some point, we will have a good 25% retracement, for now, between QE2 and […]

Volatility, anyone? Take a look at the one minute chart after the Fed Announcement yesterday. Cash Dow Broke from 11,226 down to 11,097 in about 2 minutes and then rebounded the 100 points back to the 11,215 level. A good scalping opportunity. In the cash S&P, the action was 1196 down to 1183 (13 handles) followed by a snap back HIGHER to 1197. A strong reaction after an initial panic.

As of this writing, 755AM Thursday 11/4/10, futures are 11.20 higher and Dow futures are 100 higher. Although I was looking for a correction, lower, the sharp snap back in response to the Fed’s action […]

Will we take out our 2 year high of 11,258 in the Dow Jones Cash? Or are we looking at a triple top? We have not been able to take out that level. I am leaning towards a correction down to the 10630 level and then perhaps the 10,400 level in the cash Dow.

If we settle above 11,300 a rally to the old highs at 11,532 and then the Aug 08 high at 11,782 seem to be slam dunk upside targets.

In the cash S&P, however we have quite a way to go to test our April 2010 2-year high at 1219.80 (close enough […]

Will we take out our 2 year high of 11,258 in the Dow Jones Cash? Or are we looking at a triple top? We have not been able to take out that level. I am leaning towards a correction down to the 10630 level and then perhaps the 10,400 level in the cash Dow.

If we settle above 11,300 a rally to the old highs at 11,532 and then the Aug 08 high at 11,782 seem to be slam dunk upside targets.

In the cash S&P, however we have quite a way to go to test our April 2010 2-year high at 1219.80 (close enough […]

Our permanently bullish cable news commentators flashed a trailer this morning, that “November greets investors with higher prices”. Wow, the market is open for 15minutes, is over the “magical” number of gaining more than 100 pts, and all is right in the world.

I still want to see how we re act when we go up the the old April high…

I can’t help but want to fade popular delusions… The whole world is aware, it seems, that the mutual fund industry puts money to work on or near the first and fifteenth of the month when they get their 401K infusions. Those mangers get […]

We couldn’t take out the April high at 10218. We got to 11,195 Monday. I think that 10,710 is a reasonable downside target, after a one month, 1,300 point rally. The 1,300 point rally doesn’t get the attention of the mass media.

However, going into Election Tuesday, if we start with a tasty correction, there will be plenty of crying going on for the talking heads. I really like 10,700 level because it corresponds with the August highs from this summer. Those old resistance levels become good support, albeit sometimes temporarily, on the way back down. If 10,700 does not hold, look for 10555 and […]

Last Friday’s spike down in the US dollar at 75.85 opens the door for a run down, eventually, to our November 2009 2 year low at 74.21. If that does not hold, the next target below is 71.55 and then 71.05. These markets turn and move like a Naval task force, with hundreds of ships in tow. The turn has begun, exactly how far the market moves, no one, and I mean no one knows. This movement, however, will give opportunities on both the short and long side.

Already, it has brought out the perma bulls in the grains. 7.00 corn? 14 dollar beans? […]