Blog Archive

The bottom won’t be in the Dollar until The TV talking heads are lamenting the decline. When Katie Couric and Matt Lauer ask to be paid in Gold instead of US Dollars, that will be the bottom in the US Dollar and the top in Gold. Mark my words. If this keeps up, you will have all the nut jobs calling the US greenback “fiat” money climbing out from their assorted rocks and holes in the wall. The first book I ever read about invsesting was by accident in 1975. I was 9 years old and found and old copy of “crisis investing”. If memory […]

Five Trading sessions ago on 9/27, CZ posted an overnight high at 528 3/4. That was also a new 2 year high. The rally started from our June contract low at 343 1/4. From trough to tip, that’s 185.50. In 5 trading sessions we gave back 63 cents or 34 percent. Welcome to the wonderful world of futures trading. The funds are still long about 300K contracts. Where are they going to go with those? This could push us all the way back to 458, 436 and then , 414. How long will we continue the puke fest of longs who stayed to long, or […]

Bulls are out in the Grains. Fundamental news supporting technical factors in Corn and Beans. New crop beans settle above 11.00 a bushel. Final settlement a 2 year high in SX at 11.26 after posting a 2 year high today at 1128-1/4. For the week, SX gained 57 cents. Longer term technicals make me look for a rally up to 11.82 next. I like owning 12-13 dollar call spreads to take advantage of this bullishness. However, will we run straight up? I can’t imagine that scenario. However, I firmly believe that a pull back to the 11.00 level is a buying opportunity.

Bullish rumors out […]

Today’s strong settlement above the 6 month bearish trendline in the Dow Cash is significant for the bulls. The projected upside is 11,600 to 11,800, depending on how you measure the base of the ascending triangle.

Now I firmly believe that the July 4th weekend orgasm of negativity witnessed by the national media (both tv and print) signaled a near term low. Once again, I hearken back to my blog written then. The inclusion of Prechter’s warning of eminent disaster was almost the exact low of the move. At the time, I suggested that he invest some of his profits from his newsletter in some […]

First Bullish Rumor is that Credit Suisse Bought 1 Billion dollars in the grain markets overnight.

Frost Anticipated in China China’s Weather Bureau issued a warning overnight that a frost/freeze would
hit the major corn and soy areas of China from Sept 20-24th. The Chinese corn
and soybean crops are some 10-15 days late due to the exceptionally cool/wet
spring and the late seeding dates.

Soybeans in the US have popped above the 10.50 resistance level, although i remain suspect until we settle above 10.75, but that suspicion is born out of trading beans in the bean pit as a floor trader for 18 years. […]

First Bullish Rumor is that Credit Suisse Bought 1 Billion dollars in the grain markets overnight.

Frost Anticipated in China China’s Weather Bureau issued a warning overnight that a frost/freeze would
hit the major corn and soy areas of China from Sept 20-24th. The Chinese corn
and soybean crops are some 10-15 days late due to the exceptionally cool/wet
spring and the late seeding dates.

Soybeans in the US have popped above the 10.50 resistance level, although i remain suspect until we settle above 10.75, but that suspicion is born out of trading beans in the bean pit as a floor trader for 18 years. […]

I have not had much to say about the Dow cash in a while. I had thought we would trade sideways to higher in a 1200 to 1500 point trading range. I was very bullish in Late June Early July. CNBC was bearish, they started quoting Prechter, talking about a looming slap down in the markets.

Currently, I would as you to look at a longer term chart. Cash Dow is right up against a 6 month trend line. I would sell it, but keep a stop above to manage the risk. The trendline intersection is 10,536 in the cash Dow.

We have a sweet […]

This entry will be short and sweet. I believe the rally we have seen in the past month in the corn, culminating with today’s high settlement in CZ at 471 3/4 is over done. Not to say we won’t eventually go higher, the settlement above 430 2 weeks ago indicated that we will eventually go to 5.60 or higher.
However, everyone I know is a bull. The funds are long 430K contracts. We rallied hard today into the close.

I would not be surprised to see a correction here, regardless of what the USDA says tomorrow.

I would want to be short going into […]

December corn (new crop) had had a 1.26 rally from its June 29th contract low to last Friday’s 14 month high at 469. The next resistance goes back to the 6/09/09 high at 4.70. Followed by the 1/09/09 high at 480 1/2. That 1.26 rally translates to an extra $6,300.00 for every 5,000 bushels. If a farmer has 100,000 bushels, he just made an extra $126,000.00 A large farmer with 1,000,000 bushels gained $1.2 million on his bottom line.

Conversely, end users just saw their input costs jump by that same amount. A cattleman who feeds grain suddenly has a bigger feed bill to pass […]

December corn corrected 38% of its rally from its July 27th low at 375 up to the Aug 5th 10 month hig at 4.39. a 64 cent rally. We broke to our recent low at 415 1/4 and 4.15 1/2. That is a good 38% retracement. Will it hold or will we collapse down to 4.07. Exports have been awesome. The funds are still long 320K contracts. If we can settle above 4.40 CZ, they will pile on and add to their longs, squeezing the commercials. Correspondingly, if we break below the 4.00 level, that should result in a flush lower on liquidation. It wouldn’t […]