Chris Robinson

Goldman Sachs came out today and advised their clients to get out of their corn longs. All the money in the world, all the research in the world, all the smartest and the best and brightest and their vaunted research gets them chopped to bits just like any other speculator who is long and wrong. However, if the rest of these funds which got long between 390 and 425 decide to flip, we could have a ways to go on the down side. We may have to get a real flush downwards. Such a flush will weigh heavily on these grains. Tomorrow being Friday, I […]

The day after the announcement of the biggest corn crop in US growing history, this market found its legs, led by the most unlikely, soybeans. This in the midst of forecasts of smooth sailing in the production of the South American Beans. This is a year where so far, the fundamentals have been similar to what Ed Seykota deemed “funny mentals”. If the charts are to be believed, the soybean market is showing surprising bullishness in the face of fundamentals which suggest the bears should be ruling the day.

I learned a long time ago that when a market gets bad news and is able […]

The word was out that the index funds were coming for the corn and beans at the first of the year. The only problem with that scenario was a little item called the ending 2009 crop report. The American farmer, even with vomitoxin, and 1/2 BB bushels unharvested under the snow produced a record 13.1BB crop. The speculators who came in long were screaming “Where’s Beeks” today, as March Corn fell the limit of 30 cents shortly after the opening and stayed locke limit all day, finally ending the day with over 90,000 in the offer pool. CH already opened up tonight as of this […]

Will 11000 in the Dow be enough to convince late blooming bulls that they see a red blanket waving in front of their eyes? Will it be 1200 in the S&P500 which sends all the swimmers back into the ocean after the Jaws scare?

It certainly seems like we have to test some major psychological resistance areas like those, especially Dow 11000. We might need a cover on Time Magazine of President Obama riding a bucking bull from his presidential low at 6446 to 11000. All in all it just feels like the whole nation is ‘hanging fire’ waiting to see what happens next.

For […]

Well, this week, I can’t imagine any fund managers or big traders still sitting in the cayman islands, counting their money and sipping 30 year old scotch. My guess is that this will be the first “real” volume for 2010. Basically for the last 7 weeks, the volume has been a joke. We had the “almost” meltdown Thanksgiving day eve, with the bank of Dubai mess. Since then, almost every move has been suspect. The bottom line is that a lot of traders were gone.

Here we go, however, for the second business week of 2010. I suggest strapping on your 9 point safety harness […]

Well, this week, I can’t imagine any fund managers or big traders still sitting in the cayman islands, counting their money and sipping 30 year old scotch. My guess is that this will be the first “real” volume for 2010. Basically for the last 7 weeks, the volume has been a joke. We had the “almost” meltdown Thanksgiving day eve, with the bank of Dubai mess. Since then, almost every move has been suspect. The bottom line is that a lot of traders were gone.

Here we go, however, for the second business week of 2010. I suggest strapping on your 9 point safety harness […]

Wow, a 15 month high settlement in the crude. Ditto for the stock indexes. Dollar can’t pop above 78 and moves lower again. Once again, the popular opinion is punished, lol.

Several weeks ago we were looking at the dollar index looking like it wanted to retrace a chunk of its 9 month down move. Now its looking like a sick puppy which can’t get above the 78 resistance level. On the daily charts, 78 is starting to look like the Great Wall of China, (pun intended)… Each time we test and fail to breach that 78 level significantly builds on itself. IF and when […]

Tomorrow we will find out the December un-enjoyment figures. While any one’s guess is as good as the next economist’s projection, the key will be the 10 percent figure. If it comes out at 9.9 percent, the cheerleaders will be dancing in front of their respective tv cameras. IF it comes out at 10.1 percent, there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth once again. Not much of a choice either way. However, my advice is to let the smoke clear before putting on a trade.

Barring that, I would suggest at sell order in the Dow futures about 100 to 150 points resting above […]

I Just wanted to put in a final quote for Jan beans. Tomorrow I will switch to March.
Very simply, SF had a low just 2 weeks ago at 985. We rallied to Monday’s Jan 4th high at 1065. The funds are either already done, or hanging back trying to get better prices to put on their package. Bottom line, we opened Monday higher, made our high for the move so far. We waited Tuesday and Wednesday. When no buying showed up, the market took a powder and broke sharply. How much of a break… Surprise>>> 50 percent of the recent 80 cent move. Once […]

So far grain traders have been waiting in vain for the funds to strap on their buying shoes and get busy in 2010. Perhaps its true that a lot of the fund managers are still enjoying skiing vacations in Switzerland, Aspen or where ever it is those types vacation.
All in all its been a surprisingly low volume beginning to the year. The lone exception has been in the wheat and today in the crude oil.

March wheat is looking to be the strong horse so far in the grains, which is ironic, because it has the weakest fundamental picture, with steady demand and a […]