I am taking the next 10 days off fyi.
I have protective stops working in all my positions and my hope is to not read a paper or watch TV or look at my phone for 10 days.
I did take profits on the WZ-CZ spread. bot for 180. sold for 207. Took profits on 1/2 of the position.
CER
Corn: December corn settled down 12 cents at $4.67, which, if you are keeping score is a 33 month low settlement. CZ posted a 33 month low at 4.60. From the contract high of 6.65 posted 9/7/12, today’s low punctuates a $2.01 loss in value, or 30% of its value. Traders turned their noses up at what were good export numbers. Old crop sales were 134,000MT and new crop came in at 1,072,200 MT for a combined 1,226,200 […]
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For these reasons, I am more comfortable being a seller of rallies, rather […] Above is a chart of Sep S&;P futures. It could break 100 handles from this level and still be in a bull trend. This week we have a lot of financial info coming out, culminating with Friday’s Un Enjoyment Report. Above is a chart of Sep S&;P futures. It could break 100 handles from this level and still be in a bull trend. This week we have a lot of financial info coming out, culminating with Friday’s Un Enjoyment Report. 1) The Sep/Dec corn spread came in again another 2 cents, to go off at 16 cents. Not long ago it was at 42. I believe it could go another 16 cents to “even” with Dec. I do not believe all of the longs are out yet. Currently trading at 15,367. If you are short from an average of 15,500, you have 120 ticks of profit. That’s 1200 bucks per contract. Take some profits on a portion of your shorts. Roll down buy stops on the rest so that your worse case scenario on the balance is a push. If this is the beginning of the pre August exit to the sidelines, we could get a tasty sell off here. Support levels to use for profit taking: 15,143: 15,015 and then 14886. Cover another 1/3 of corn short position here. As I write this we are at 4.79. 4.75 was the bottom of the channel. First off, yes; when CU/CZ rallied above 40, I took off 2/3 of the position. I really thought we could have a bounce to 50: If you’ve been following, you know I suggested this spread since first week in June. Roughly a month ago.Why Bearish New Crop Beans?
November bean chart: When we couldn’t take out 13.00 and make a run above 13.40….. That was a big sign of weakness. When we settled below $12.75 that was the second major sign of weakness. Finally, the trend is lower. If we take out the april low at 11.86….. that opens up another $1.00 to the down side.
Short Sep Dow agains 15500. Short Sep SP’s against 1690.00
Although this number is a pale imitation of an imitation of itself compared to Pre-2001, its still a widely followed number. I won’t get into the argument of how it doesn’t represent true un employed. How it doesn’t account for those discouraged workers who have stopped trying for […]Short Sep Dow agains 15500. Short Sep SP's against 1690.00
Although this number is a pale imitation of an imitation of itself compared to Pre-2001, its still a widely followed number. I won’t get into the argument of how it doesn’t represent true un employed. How it doesn’t account for those discouraged workers who have stopped trying for […]Week Re-Cap
A good rain forecast over the weekend could push CZ to take out key support at the trend line at 4.75. Sunday night’s trade could be interesting. I do think that since the funds are short corn and wheat, they will put the pedal to the metal and sell more if they get the chance Sunday night.
Sep Dow Futures Down 119 as of 10:05: TAKE PROFITS ON SHORT FUTURES
Don’t let a winner turn into a loser. 
CZ hits bottom of Channel at 4.75
Cover 1/3 here. We may be done for a while. We might even have a rally back up to 5.25. It depends on how we settle tomorrow, Friday 7/26/13
The Sep/Dec spread came in another 8 cents: […]
Short Sep/ Long Dec spread finally rewards after 5 cents of heat
For the 1/3 I still have on, I am not sure how low it could go. Best case would be from 28 over til 8 under. That would be 36 cents more profit from here. If you are putting this bear spread on now, make sure you have 36/37 as a run and hid stop level. Risk 10 cents to try […]