Chris Robinson

Today’s high in January beans came within one cent of the 38% Fibonacci retracement at 14.47 1/2.  this is a good place to take profits on any long futures or long options.  there might be another 50 cents left to go,  so I wouldn’t be getting short here.   Only taking profits at a technical resistance level.

Chicago March Wheat has rallied 37 cents from its 4 month lows, and remains in that channel formation.  I like the 8.90 to 9.00 level as the next sell target.  Today’s high met resistance at 878, which is the 38% retracement of the down move as well.  888 is […]

$1,750  marks a 75 dollar an ounce rally in the past month.  The October high nudged $1,800 then we dropped 125 bucks an ounce in 5 weeks… For you total return folks, that’s a 7% loss in value, followed by a 4% bounce back.  We’re still down 3% in a sideways choppy market. Which is one reason I have not posted about Gold in a while.
I’d  continue to be a seller at the 1800 level.  I have that as an upside target in the next 6 weeks,  before years end. 

Longer term its interesting to note the following. At its bottom, gold in November […]

We had a 550 pt rally in the last 5 trading days.  I’d step aside from long positions now and I’d be looking to sell new highs on rallies.  We could pull back down to 12,700 before I’d look to re-establish longs.  We might even have a pull back down to the 12,630  level.
On the charts, we look to be in a downward trend. There are good opportunities to make money from the counter trends, but in general, the Dow could break back down to 12,000.  We seem to be in a wide 1,000 pt trading range bounded by 13,000 and 12,600. 

As for […]

12,939 is the 62% retracement of the sell off we suffered through,  capped off by last Friday’s 4-month low tick at 12,436.
We have bounced back 500 pts in a week.

Exports in the grains were, in a word, bullish.
Corn, Wheat and Beans continue to fight back making new highs.
Please take profits.
Corn has rallied 40 cents in a week.
Wheat has rallied  25 cents  after posting a 4 month low last Friday.
Beans have rallied 55 cents after posting a 5 month low last Friday.

CER

If you have profitable futures positions in place in either the Stock Indexes or grains,  make sure you put sell stops in place to gurarntee profits.
We are seeing some weakness in corn, as traders buy wheat and sell corn and beans.  Corn had a 40 cent rally in 3 days.  Beans had a 50 cent move in 3 days.
DO NOT LET THOSE PROFITS EVAPORATE.
CER

Surprise, Surprise,
The Chinese stepped in and bought beans, and oil on this break.  Chinese imports were 445 tmt, up 46% year on year.
China imported 4.03 mt of soybeans in October,  up 6% year on year.  Chinese soybean oil imports have surged 83% on the year.  It looks like China is rumored to have bought 4 to 5 cargoes of beans from the Pacific North West in the past 3 days.
Chinese corn imports are up 385% from last year’s pace.
Over night,  Japan bought some US wheat.  US wheat remains too expensive for the mid-east due to expensive freight charges as opposed to other origins.    […]

Upside target for Dow Jones December  look at 12,880 and then 13,015.    FYI 13,016 is half way back of the roller coaster sell off which started October 5th at 13,599,   and finally capitulated just 3 days and 330 points lower from today,   down at 12,424..
I really like 50% retracements as trading targets.

Also, generally, holiday markets are risky to short.  The only people trading are  professionals,  or in some cases,  people who just think they are professionals.   The pros are 99% bears, because sell offs generally pay off more quickly than rallies..   Markets go up the stair case, but down the elevator shaft.
Most […]

We’ve had a good recovery bounce from last Friday’s lows.  Upside target for March Corn.== 757,  763 and then 766.  There’s an old resistance trend line there which is a good upside target,  and that would give us a 52 cent from low tic to high tic, assuming we halt around 766.
WH has come back 24% , with today’s high at 865.  877 seems a good upside target and then 887
SF looks particularly strong  trying to carve out a bottom here.. In my opinion, if you own one thing in the next 3 to 6 weeks,  it has to be beans.  If SH […]

We have trade today, Tuesday.  My guess is that Wednesday will be light and choppy and Friday could be the lightest trading volume day of the year.  Because of that, I’d maintain a long bias, but I’d be trading very very small.

Traditionally, Wednesday and Friday are bullish for commodities.  I’d look for that traditional bias.
Buy dips.  Sell Rallies.

Fundamentally, the condition  report of US wheat dropped lower again yesterday.  At some point, the condition of this wheat crop will become a national news story.   The time to be a selective buyer is today.

That’s about all.
CER

January beans have retraced 75% of the 5.00 rally we saw this summer.  We’ve dropped over 4.00 in 2 months.
I’d look at a 14.70 call for 12 cents for the next 32 days.

Buy a Jan corn 7.70 call for 6 cents.  For wheat, buy a 9.00 call for 10 cents.

These are 30 day plays to catch a potential bounce higher after the sell off we’ve had in the past 2 months.

In the Stock Indexes In Dow Jones Dec,  look at 12,840 and then 12,940 as upside targets…Why?
Because all these markets look oversold.

CER