Chris Robinson

The June low for DJZ was 11,955.  The October 5th 4-1/2 year high was 13,599.  Today’s low so far is  12,490.  A 1,644 pt rally, and we have given back 1,109 points of that rally, or 67.5%. 
If 12.500 doesn’t hold, I think we have a panic rush to the exits and we see 12,000 in the next 3 weeks.

Typically, the Fibonacci retracement at 62% took us to 12,581.  Those are usually good support areas.
Since this sell off got started,  the typical support levels have been as supportive as warm butter. 12,776 (the 50% pullback)  held for about 3 days.. It looked […]

December Dow has one more support.  As I write this,  President Obama is speaking.  The Dow is down another 115 pt.
The last support area I have is 12,560.  Good Luck.  12,758  was a 50% retracement of the rally which began in June.
We are 1,000 pts lower than the high we made in the first week of October when we were at 4 1/2 year highs….
So, all things being equal, 1,000 pt haircut after making 4 1/2 year highs just 6 weeks ago isn’t really that much to panic about.
In the grand scheme of things,  I’d continue to try to buy dips […]

News last night from Japan that their economy is under stress was enough to tip the sales sellers again after Friday’s sell off in the beans.  Beans are down 47 today, looking at testing the 14.00 level.  Will the Chinese stay true to form and buy cash beans here?  On a $1.50 bushel/  break? 

Once again, the down move comes the week after all of the November puts expired.

Although corn held up admirably last week and even most of last night,  it has finally broken below the 7.32 level.  If you look at my video from Friday,  I suggested that the market might […]

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CER

12,550 and then 12,302  are two more extreme downside targets for December Dow futures. 
Monday I am going to switch to the Mark contract.

The high Wednesday morning was 13,251…. Today’s low tick was 12,670.  From tip to trough, that’s 581 points, or 5800 bucks for every contract.  3 days to take out 1/2 of a rally which began back in June with  the Dow at 12,000.  The high of the move came on October 5th, 2 days after the first Presidential Debate.  Obviously, the market was factoring in a potentially different outcome than what we got in reality.
To recap.  We had a […]

Today we got to the good support at 12,777.   If that doesn’t hold, the next stop is 12, 581.

If the 12,777 does not hold with reasonable level we could easily take this to 12,600.  12, 582 is the 62% Fibonacci.

We could see that level tomorrow.  The total lack of buying has me wondering if we can’t go down to the June low at 11,852.  That would completely negate the 1600 pt rally we saw from the June lows up to the October 5th high at 15,999.

Going into tomorrow’s USDA report, I own wheat bean and corn calls, looking for a bounce higher.

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12,954 is a buy in Dec Dow Futures.  Down 245,  now the weak shorts are getting short.  Buy it, put in a sell stop, and  don’t look at the screen, TV or monitor until tomorrow.

I’d also buy corn, wheat and beans.  Time stamp it.  9:36.

Put sell stops in… Don’t be stupid… Manage the risk,  but stay long here.
The emotional traders  all puked on the 250pt sell off in the Dow.

If you get stopped out,  flip and get short.  The best level to buy on this break, in my opinion, is 12,777.

The 1/2 point of the 5-month, 1600 pt rally is […]