Chris Robinson

Dow Index moves to a new 5-month high and high settlement. No confirmation with the S&P though, with that index 25 handles away from similar multi month highs. For now, I am suspect and would be more inclined to sit tight and look for a definitive move.

My opinion is that we will probably drift higher, however, if there is any negative news from Europe, I’d say, look out below. We are at the upper level of the 1000 point trading range. This could be a bull trap. Make a new highs. Get every one back in the water. Then Jaws comes swiming up and […]

12,228 on October 27th, 12,194 October 28th, 12,203 on November 14th, 12,178 last Friday, 12,183 today…5 trading days over the past 6 weeks. This is high tick that extends back to August 1st… So we are sitting at a 4 month high and can’t get through.
I am not sure what this means. Quite frankly we could pop up, spark a short covering rally and then hit the wall at 12,675 and then careen lower, or we could remain in the 1,000 point trading range and drift back down to 11,200…
At this time of the year, we tend to drift higher.
The trade is […]

12,228 on October 27th, 12,194 October 28th, 12,203 on November 14th, 12,178 last Friday, 12,183 today…5 trading days over the past 6 weeks. This is high tick that extends back to August 1st… So we are sitting at a 4 month high and can’t get through.
I am not sure what this means. Quite frankly we could pop up, spark a short covering rally and then hit the wall at 12,675 and then careen lower, or we could remain in the 1,000 point trading range and drift back down to 11,200…
At this time of the year, we tend to drift higher.
The trade is […]

120K new jobs, unemployment drops to 8.6%. Interesting that this would have normally resulted in another strong performance. Here at 9:23 AM, two hours since the data was released and Dow futures are only up 12,128… Makes me stop and say hmmmm. In fact we may get a buy the rumor sell the fact activity today.

Also worrisome, the dow is up against the 12.200 level of resistance I have been talking about for weeks. The last time we got here, I got short solely on the fact that we were at resistance, and low and behold the dow broke 1000 points in 8 days. […]

1250 in SPZ and 12,000 in Dow Futures Dec are good targets to exit longs and to use as a benchmark to initiate sales on a stop basis. In other words, if we rally above them, great. But if we trade substantially below them, use that move as an opportunity to fade bulls who came to the party too late. Its a counter trend strategy. Make sure you keep your stops reasonable when initiating a trade around these levels.

That is all. Its Wed, Nov 30 at 9:55 AM CST.

CER

All markets took off over night courtesy of the ECB banks. They added liquidity by printing money around the world. I WOULD NOT WANT TO BE SHORT. REPEAT…I WOULD NOT WANT TO BE SHORT. The game has changed. Its a risk on trade.

Furthermore, the funds are net short beans and net short wheat… The commercial funds bought it because they needed it. The index funds bought it and they don’t typically trade. They buy and hold. My point is, there is no one left to sell it to the shorts. If you are short, you are going to feel pain. My advise is […]

This recent break has been bought by commercials and Index funds. Commitment of traders shows that spec funds and small traders have blown out of their longs.

I’d use this as an indication to re iterate what I wrote yesterday.

The big money is worried about food shortages.

Any weather issues this year could tighten supply and send prices back to their recent highs.

Food For Thought on a Tuesday Morning.
CER

Grains are over sold. Last Friday seemed like a throw in the towel bail out of the longs.

Buy some cheap march calls in corn wheat and beans. Beans should lead the way if we get a weather issue in South America.

In the Dow, we’ve had a 38% bounce. Last Friday’s low at 11,129 marked a 1,075 point, 8 day puke fest lower.

Half way back at 11,666 should be a good sale. Be a cautious buyer at 11,500 level looking to sell and flop at 11,666 or 11,800.

That’s all for now. I really like buying grains here on this break. Especially beans […]

Watching the wires today you can tell its a slow news day. So What that the Dow is down 315 pts.. Where have these people been hiding for the past 14 months??? How about some flipping perspective for a change instead of fear mongering?

November 14th, just 6 days ago we were at 12,203. Today’s low?? 11,420 so far.. Its’ still only 1 PM. In an hour when the bonds close, we’ll probably flush another 200 pts.

ON a chart we have had a 1,000 point trading range since August. A low down at 10,329 met by a high at the 12,232 level… 11,281 […]

Please read yesterday’s entry as a reference for this one.
Today as of this writing… Gold? down 55.70 at 17.18….
Corn? Down 28 1/4 at 614. Wheat? traded down below the 6.00 target and is sitting -24 cents at 592 1/2.
Jan beans traded down to 11.62 and settled at 1168, down 19 1/2 cents.

Probably over done, but you never know.

Looks like exports were bad. Japan bought corn from the FSU yesterday b/c its 20 bucks a ton cheaper than our corn thanks to our stronger dollar. Some previous sales were canceled to the toon of 17M bushels. People suspect its China cancelling […]