Chris Robinson

Crude oil made a fresh new 6 week low today at 72.75. A trade down to 72.15 should be a chance to cover another 1/3 of shorts, moving the buy stop on the remaining packaged lower. If 72.00 does not hold, next support is the 14th month low at posted on 5/24/10 down at 70.35. Looking at the longer term chart, if we find support here at the 72.65 level, we could be ready for a rally back. If these lows hold, I like an upside target at 76.75 and then 78.00.

In the grains, I like the long position we have after the recent […]

New crop Corn, (CZ) settled at a new 8-month high today at 4.36 1/4. A good close and one which opens the possible door to a move back up to 5.55. That being said, there are any reasons why the rally could collapse. However, with the Funds long 360K contracts as of the start of trade today ,adding another 10K contracts long today, its looks like, for now, the funds are right and they are going to push the commercials.
Certainly we will have a lot of trade around the key psychological level at 4.50.
I will say I would rather be long […]

Watching the current sell off in the Dow. Bottom line, we had a 6-week 1,107 point rally, which largely went un heralded. Have a 513 point pull back however, and the crowd squeals like teen age girls at the sight of Justin Bebier.

We could correct to 10,169 in Dow Cash, followed by a test of 10,000, which would co incide, most likely, with the November Elections. Economic distress would be the trump card if we were to dance through 10,000 round about November 1st. That, more than anything else, should give incumbent Dems the hee bee gee bies… US voters vote their pocket […]

September wheat traded at 4.55 on June 29th, the day before the Acreage report. 27 trading day’s later on Aug 6th, Sep wheat topped out at 8.41.

Today’s low at 6.49 3/4 was just one cent above the pure 50% retracement of this 27-day, 3.86 cent spike higher.

The next support is at 6.03 1/2, which is a 62% retracement of this 27-day, 3.86 point upmove.

The six dollar puts we held onto are back in the money. the 6.30 puts we paid 19 cents for, today are worth 30 cents. A 50% return on invested funds.

Can it go lower? sure, could […]

To Recap:
On June 29th, we posted a contract low in CZ at 343 1/4. On Aug 5th, we posted an 8-month high at 438 3/4. I wrote last Friday about how critical a WEEKLY close above 4.30 would be to maintain the bull rally. Today, oddly, we traded up to 4.33 but then fell apart like wet paper towel holding a pound of potatoes. We broke down to 4.21, a 12 cent hair cut for the late-to-the party bulls.

For new crop beans, on July 1st, we posted a low at 8.94 in SX. Aug 5h gave us a high tick at 10.49. Today’s […]

We got a pretty bearish number at first glance on Thursday. We are showing great yields on USDA at 165 bu. We probably would have sold off, if it were not for the funds. The funds are getting a huge huge position long. This week they have gotten long again.

This upcoming week we need to watch Corn. If we settle above 4.30 next week we could accelerate back up to the 5.60 level. Right back to the resistance levels from last year. Technically, there is a flat bottom triangle. The mouth of the triangle is 1.30 wide. If you add that to the 4.30 […]

Last Friday, Aug 6th, you can go back and see, that I had a chart and a reccomendation to sell crude oil short against that trendline. Today we broke down to the congestion area at 76.00. A 5.00 profit. I would take profits on 1/2 of the position. Move your trailing stop down from 81 to 79.50 area. I don’t like using round numbers for a stop, but put a stop in somewhere around that area.
If 76.00 does not hold, we could roll over and go back down and test the 71.50 and then 71.00 congestion area.

Good Trading

USDA has spoken. Bottom line, big crops with big demand. Best of Both worlds for our farmers.

Bearish yields w/ corn at 165 and beans at 44 bpa, respectively. Large carryouts in the wheat will be swallowed up by world wide, demand if this early trade is indicitive.

We continue to see excellent demand from China for our beans, as well as somewhat astounding movement yesterday in the corn.

Today is the first flush from this trade. Currently its 10:09 AM and we’ve been open for 40 minutes.

Settlement today is key, if we get CZ to settle above 425, that opens the door […]

On July 2, the Dow cash posted a 10 month low at 9614. CNBC and all the major media pundits were decrying the “failure” of 9800 support. Please go back and read my blog then. I was bullish just out of spite for their bearishness.

Between Jul 2nd and THIS MONDAY, we rallied up to a high tick at 10719, for a 1,105 point from trough to apex. All we got was crickets, or a dozen pundits saying that we should not be rallying, but for 5 weeks we rallied against the wall of worry.

Today, with a 250 point down move, as of this […]

The Wednesday before a USDA report is upon us tomorrow. Whippy Wednesday should live up to its name. As a floor trader, I learned to exit the pit after 11:30 AM, double check all of my trades and vamoose from the floor ASAP. I never wanted to be around for the afternoon chop fest, especially, because the risk of a very detrimental out-trade was heightened prior to these numbers. Of course on any day, as a trader, we ran the risk of walking into a 3 to 5 cent loser from an mistake from the previous day. That was acceptable. What was not acceptable was […]