Thursday August 12th we have USDA supply and demand. We have just had a 6 week period which has seen 1) wheat rally 3 dollars, only to break back over 1.20 of that rally, even though fundamentally there is plenty of world supply grain, and we have been, as traders and or producers or end users, at the whim of the speculative funds who have gotten a hold on something called “french milling wheat”.
I have been out here since Jan 1992, and I can honestly say this was the first time I ever can recall hearing about that contract in mainstream media. The most […]
Chris Robinson
Sell the crude oil, and watch out for liquidaton in wheat
I told you I have had people calling my office who know absolutely nothing about wheat wanting to own it. If a limo driver in LA thinks its time to own wheat, its got to be a top…On Thursday night, the same day the following CNBC show aired, we opened five cents higher and then moved as much as 50 cents higher. Somewhere during the middle of the night, Russia indicated that they would allow exports in the pipeline to go free… Low and behold we have not only […]
Russian Beurocrats and -133K jobs at 9.5% Un-Enjoyment
What a surprise, Russia clarifies and wants to delay the export ban until Sep, so they can finish 700K tonnes of wheat on the rails or ready to ship. I wonder if Putin got long some wheat calls a few days ago, and just let them go last night. That’s one way to finance a budget. But that’s just my speculation…
Wheat was 50 higher when i went to bed last night, this morning its already ten lower. Hmmm
On a second note, one of my indicators the top was in was if CNBC did any story on wheat, or the grain “rally”.
5 […]
To the Moon, Alice….
A local market maker who shall remain nameless, used to love to come in after a sharp bull move, especially if he was long and enjoying the rally, and yell, “It can’t go any higher!! as he sold off his long position little by little. Very annoying if you happened to be short and suffering losses… But he was consistent. Consistently annoying, year after year. He would also do the same if he was short and the market was breaking..It was his trademark squawk.. It was his way of announcing to the pit that he was the right way and making money…But he was a […]
Russia Shuts off Exports
Russia delivers 180,000 tonnes to Egypt in Wheat and then shuts off Exports. Wheat 60 higher locked limit for the first half hour of trade, but we are coming off. could this be buy the rumor, sell the fact?. I would be patient. Is there another 2dollar move higher in the wheat? or was this the exhaustion move?
I would sit tight through Lunch. It feels kind of weird here. I like being long beans out of all three choices, corn, wheat, beans. If Wheat is able to settle limit bid, then I think I may change my tune, but I will be patient.
Good […]
Let Them Eat Cake?… How about Wheat???
WZ rallies 1.92 in 35 trading days, Russia gives conflicting signals, first halting exports, then promising there is no problem with them meeting their export quotas. Today we hear rumors the the drought has damaged not 20 percent of the crop but perhaps upwards of 40 percent. Still another rumor has agronomists doubting if there will be enough moisture to get the winter wheat planted after Europe’s bread basket has been cooked by the worst drought in 130 years. Finally, the Wall Street Journal, usually enamored with silicon valley, […]
Bearish Fundamentals don’t mean we can’t continue to rally
Today we had some bearish news for CZ. A private service came out with some bearish estimates on Corn yields and production. We had a cooling off of the 2 dollar wheat rally which saw 5 days in a row of gap open higher trading days.
Turn around Tuesday gave us weakness in the corn and wheat, while the spreaders bought beans against those sales.
Fundamentally, Beans still have the best chance to give us a bullish surprise during August. Hot and Dry could give us a decrease in yields. How likely is that? Only your guess is as good as mine. I would […]
Bearish Fundamentals don't mean we can't continue to rally
Today we had some bearish news for CZ. A private service came out with some bearish estimates on Corn yields and production. We had a cooling off of the 2 dollar wheat rally which saw 5 days in a row of gap open higher trading days.
Turn around Tuesday gave us weakness in the corn and wheat, while the spreaders bought beans against those sales.
Fundamentally, Beans still have the best chance to give us a bullish surprise during August. Hot and Dry could give us a decrease in yields. How likely is that? Only your guess is as good as mine. I would […]
Turn Around Tuesday
Short and to the point.
Today I’d be a seller of rallies. We have come too far too fast led by 5 gap higher sessions in the wheat. CZ got to the 418 level, 3 cents above the old march high at 415. I think today we start a decent correction in the grains.
Later today I will talk more about the stock indexes. Suffice it to say, just go back to my entries around the July 4th weekend. CNBC analysts (also affectionately known as pure emotional fades) were decrying the “failure of Dow 9800”. How surprising that was damn near the July lows down […]
Grains Finish July on a Roman Candle
Well, one word for today’s action. Bullish.
KWZ turned its nose up at the 675 target I wrote about yesterday, and instead blew to a new 12 month high at 695 1/2. I find it interesting that we couldn’t go for the likely stops above 7.00. Maybe Sunday Night?
All in all impressive, but remember the adage that markets climb up the stairs, only to fall down an elevator shaft when the buyers are exhausted.
This has been the largest single monthly percentage gain in wheat since 1973. Stepping in to try to pick a top in a market like this is similar to […]