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If it looks, like it, acts like and smells like it, we could be looking at the break out from our 4 month sideways chop in the grains. CZ pushed up against the 390 level, SX is up against 934,and old crop looks like its coiled and ready to test 1020 and then 1075.

Wednesday’s supply and demand could give us the fuel to finally break up and out of the resistance which has characterized these grains for the last 4 months. The oats, otherwise known as the canary in the coal mine, seem to have taken a break after a violent move higher, followed […]

Apparently, every TV commentator has finally taken a basic technical analysis course. They all know how to read a chart, or at least recent lows and highs. Congratulations, we’re making progress.
However, having an intra day trade at 9853 and a settlement at 9775 constitutes a “failure of 9800”.. Good lord, they are picky. My guess is that they and everyone like them who sold against the 9800 number today is going to get hammered by a short covering rally tomorrow through Friday.
We are going into a long weekend. If you were short, are you going home short over a holiday weekend where any […]

Apparently, every TV commentator has finally taken a basic technical analysis course. They all know how to read a chart, or at least recent lows and highs. Congratulations, we’re making progress.
However, having an intra day trade at 9853 and a settlement at 9775 constitutes a “failure of 9800”.. Good lord, they are picky. My guess is that they and everyone like them who sold against the 9800 number today is going to get hammered by a short covering rally tomorrow through Friday.
We are going into a long weekend. If you were short, are you going home short over a holiday weekend where any […]

Looks like my idea that farmers were capitulating was correct. The USDA came out extremely bullish here today for corn. Expecting 88 to 90 million acres, instead, we got 87.8. We lost one million acres of corn. Opened higher today, and has danced around limit bid (+30) cents all day. This is looking like a sea change. We moved all the way back to our 2007 lows in the Dec 2010 contract. Made a new contract low,
frightened producers into what are shaping up to be sales in the proverbial hole.

Rest assured, its a good time to re-own sold bushels. A 15 cent investment […]

This is shaping up to be a whether market, not a weather market. Are we seriously going to have a drought this year? With fields in MO and the Dakota’s looking more like Rice Patties in Viet Nam, are we really still looking at a drought? Or will the dryness in the south eastern states prevail? This uncertainty has us in a sideways chop. The large speculative commodity funds are still short 45K Chicago Wheat, Long 30K corn and long about 20K beans. Hardly anything to write home about. Once again, I think its the computer programs, squeezing the life force out of these markets. […]

Buy the rumor and sell the fact.
Summer markets are characterized by light volume, low liquidity, and as Europe rotates into July/August vacation mode this will only make trading more volatile.

The magical 10,500 level in Dow cash has us catching our breath. There looks to be a nice double bottom on the daily charts at 9800. We’ve had a 700 point rally from 9800 to today’s high at 10,594. That tends to silence the doom and gloom bears faster than a care of pepper spray. They can pontificate all they want about the myriad of reasons why we shouldn’t have rallied.
Bottom line, […]

Will China really let the Yuan float? The very thought of it has enthused dormant bulls in Asia, and I believe, as the sun comes up on the East Cost of the USA this morning, traders who are not on vacation will be looking in their closets for their rally shoes.
Even those on vacation, may very well look for their rally flip flops, in anticipation of some follow through here this week.
This should translate well for commodities, as well, as corn wheat and beans are all up nicely this night.
In general, I’ve always liked going home long over a weekend in the […]