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Crop report today. Not a huge surprise. Slightly friendly for corn and old crop beans. Negative world wide carry out with an extra 4 million extra metric tonnes for world wide corn.
Those anticipating a US 2.0 billion plus carry out in the corn were disappointed. Corn carryout was 1.899, just ten million less than the expectations.
Given the world wide carryout, this is overall neutral.
Wheat was a little friendly, with world wide carryout reduced a million metric tonnes.

Initially we were called lower, over the past 2 hours that has morphed into a higher call. How much higher will this lower opening be? […]

It doesn’t seem to matter that Alan Greenspan is no longer at the Fed. Like muscle memory, the markets have moved lower as Mr. Greenspan defends his history in front of Congress.
With the climate ripe for a scapegoat for the real estate and overall market melt-down, Mr. Greenspan is, in effect, defending his legacy.
Famous for his obtuse and confusing fed rulings during his tenure, for sure he will be doing his best to clarify instead of mystify.

As for the Dow, I have not changed my feeling. We traded above it 2 times in the past 2 days. By “it” I mean […]

Here we sit, 25 points away from the 11,000 print. Someone obviously does not want that print to go out. We got reasonably bullish un-enjoyment figures on Good Friday.
Regardless of you political ilk, or any suspicions about the validity of that 9.7 percent figure, the number is what it is. The US did grow 162K jobs last month, the biggest rise out of the 3 spikes up we have seen in the last 3 years.

As i am writing this, the trading high is 10,988. Who or what is holding us from getting the print out?
One thing I know, is that no matter […]

Here we sit, 25 points away from the 11,000 print. Someone obviously does not want that print to go out. We got reasonably bullish un-enjoyment figures on Good Friday.
Regardless of you political ilk, or any suspicions about the validity of that 9.7 percent figure, the number is what it is. The US did grow 162K jobs last month, the biggest rise out of the 3 spikes up we have seen in the last 3 years.

As i am writing this, the trading high is 10,988. Who or what is holding us from getting the print out?
One thing I know, is that no matter […]

Less than 17 ticks from 11,000 is the high print from Thursday. Today, Good Friday, the futures market was open for a 1/2 day, but cash markets were closed. Today’s unemployment figures showed an increase of 162K non-farm payroll. This was only the third time since 2007 that we have had an increase in this number. Today’s was the largest increase of the 3.
Time to break out the party hats? Unemployment holds at 9.7%. Monday will be the first real test to see if funds come back and start buying. Spring break is over, perhaps the fund managers will be back from Aspen/Snowmass from […]

Interesting that there is such a lack of volatility and/or interest in the US stock indices. The Dow is mired in a narrow 200 point sideways trading range for the past 8 trading sessions. On the charts we look a little toppy, but for the life of me I can’t imagine why we haven’t had at least an intra-day pop up to the 11,000 level, if only for a stop hunting expedition.
It just goes to show that in general, there is a lack of interest in these markets, and what we will continue to do is drift sideways to higher.

Stocks absorbed […]

Well, the planting intentions is history. CK loses 9 1/2 cents and settles at 3.45. Acreages estimate was 88.8 mil acres, 2.3 more than last year. Stocks estimated at 7.694, 750mil more than last year. Gave us the lowest settlement since September. there is a gap on the charts down at 338. We should see that in the next few session.
Today will be interesting b/c its the last trading day before a holiday week, and the first trading day of a new quarter…

Crude oil dancing towards $85 a barrel will be the ace in the hole, so to speak for commodities. A […]

I have to admit that 66 points doesn’t seem like a lot. I really thought we would get that print on Friday. Now we will have to wait until Monday. I still think the number gets hit with sell pressure the first two times we print there. After the third time, we should rotate up, and explore the space, so to speak.

Grains look suspiciouly weak heading into the Wednesday Planting intentions numbers. Remember the funds are short wheat, long corn, and only slightly long beans. We will see some evening up of these positions going into Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday may give us […]

Well, we have absorbed what one would have thought would have been a very bearish item, the new zillion dollar health care plan. I can’t see how on a Friday, with the next unemployment number less than 2 weeks away that we don’t go get that 11,000 print in the cash Dow. We are also moving into the last day of the month, next Wed, March 31st. Also the start of a new quarter… That’s a recipe for re balancing and hopefully some volatility. Volatility equals trading opportunity. That’s why we hope for it as traders.

I am not sure we will settle above 11,000. […]

Dow Theory states that the Dow acts as a forward looking indicator. Thank you Charles Dow for being the father of something as murky and uncertain as technical analysis of markets. If Economics is the dismal science, technical analysis and the ‘random walk theory’ are a close second. Both economics and technical analysis are rife with Monday morning quarterbacking. Its just the nature of the beast. We look to read the tea leaves, and we base our anticipation of future events based on how the market has reacted in the past. Period.

Friday, March 19th, the Dow Cash got to within 181 points of […]