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Look for support at 9067 and then 8566 in the DJH, if we melt down the next few weeks.
In the SPH, Support is at 964 and 907. These are the levels I would look at buying the first time we test them for a bounce.

Good Trading

I think if we settle this Dow lower on the week, it signals a potential for a test of the 8600 level.
I like the Fibonacci retracement in SH, March beans up to the 964 1/2 level. We seem to have found support at the 900 level, and I think we will have a push up to the 955 area.
Longer term this Summer, I think this will be a good year for the July/Nov bull spread.

Mark Gold likes it, and is looking for a drought this year as well. Now is the time to start thinking about putting that spread on.
Be aware, […]

We made it through unemployment Friday. By the way, its always the first Friday of every new month. So we have 11 more of these ASININE productions put on by the info-tainment reporters on cable. Many of the analysts with trading backgrounds I have a lot of respect towards.
Its the reporter, or the analyst whose experience has been sales based ONLY that make me cringe. Its just a pet peeve of mine. So from time to time, since this is MY blog, I will vent accordingly.

That being said, I also like to use the emotions on the part of the reporter’s as a […]

We made it through unemployment Friday. By the way, its always the first Friday of every new month. So we have 11 more of these ASININE productions put on by the info-tainment reporters on cable. Many of the analysts with trading backgrounds I have a lot of respect towards.
Its the reporter, or the analyst whose experience has been sales based ONLY that make me cringe. Its just a pet peeve of mine. So from time to time, since this is MY blog, I will vent accordingly.

That being said, I also like to use the emotions on the part of the reporter’s as a […]

Low this morning after the unemployment number in DJH was 9890. We bounced back and are now unchanged in the dow at 9978. A nice 80 points. 80 points on a mini dow is 400.
Hope you did the trade.
That is all.

Good Trading

PS, CNBC was covering the unemployment number like the Rose Bowl Parade. A bunch of people sitting outside on stools, waiting for the white puff of smoke from the vatican… Amazing

Tomorrow, 730CST.. UNENJOYMENT. Perhaps the single most anticipated unemployment number in the history of …. (oh wait, I dont’ work for CNBC, Whew> I can go hyper ventilate into a paper bag now…)

So tomorrow is unemployment. I think its a sell the rumor buy the fact number. Will we break below 10,000? absolutely. But then I think we rally back and chop up all of the bears.
Once again, however, I’d have my trades in accordingly. Look for a 100 to 150 pt down side push on the number. Have a resting order at 9900 or 9850, risking another 25 to 50 […]

6- month high in the DXY….

Today the US dollar completed a 38% retracement of the 10 month down move, which began last march 2009. The next target is 82 in the dollar index. That would be a 50 percent retracement. Above that we have a 62% retracement at 84.00. Just a heads up. About six weeks ago, in the blog, I wrote that I thought we would see 82. I still like that as a target. This obviously would result in much lower prices for commodities which move inversely with the dollar. A higher dollar makes our crops and stocks more expensive.

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Look at my Friday, Feb 29th post. I have to toot my own horn, because no one else is interested yet. 10,000 held, the high was 10,776, but for our purposes, call it 10,800. Half-way back is 10400. I think you sell it there the first time up.

In the grains, I think this is a short covering rally. 1.70 down move in the beans, 70 cents in the corn? Since the USDA number? We have to have a rally back. Intermediate term, however, this market looks like it has more work to do on the down side, in both corn and beans. With New […]

If you go back an look at my recent posts, you will see that I was cautiously bullish down here at these levels in the market.
It seems that things are sufficiently bearish now to generate a short covering rally. We have unemployment Friday. I could see a rally right up until that number and then a re-flush to the down side, if only short term.
If the market gets bad news Friday morning, with higher unemployment, and is able to rebound and remain above the 10,000 support, I would look for a continued throw in the towel rally by the remaining bears.
Just make […]

I awoke to the headline “stocks have worst month since feb 09”. Is that enough to get the sentiment bearish enough for a rally? I am not sure.
Let’s wait for next Friday’s Unemployment figure. Why not…? Everyone else is…
I still think we are on the precipice of either 1) a bounce back with a continuation in the 1-year rally we started ‘enjoying’ in March of 09. I put that in quotes b/c that rally was met with more pessimism than ants at a pic nick. As a whole, investors were 1) suspicious of the rally b/c it was relatively light volume, 2) […]