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So far today, we have typical choppy holiday trade this Christmas Eve Day session.
Wheat is the loser, so far, down 6 cents in WH at 523. The 525 strike price is attractin the trade today. In the Jan beans, SF is resting at the 1001 level, basically unchanged. And the March Corn, the darling of the longs, is up 1 3/4 cents at 406 1/2.

The trading ranges so far today are :
WH, High 525, Low 521, last 523.
CH, High 408, low 405 1/4
SF, High 1008, Low 998, last 1001

A ten cent range in SF, a four cent range […]

The stock indexes today are bid, as we had some good econimic news, with jobless claims at 2009 lows, with a rise in durable goods orders.
The dollar had a mini correction from its recent rally and Tuesday’s recent 3 month high.
One point is not much of a “correction” but it has given a bounce to the metals and the crude oil.
Also, for now, the sell pressure has abated in the grain complex as well.

A quick recap of the Stock Indexes follows.

First, the Stock Indexes are giving us their best interpretation of a Christmas rally.

We are sitting at 14 month […]

With the recent rally in the dollar index, we have been on a quest to find the floor in the metals and crude oil.
Here are some levels to consider from a basic technical level.

In gold, we will start with the Feb contract. Only 13 trading days ago we were sitting at all time highs, looking at the 10250 level… How quickly we have dropped to our present levels, basically around the 1075 level with today’s 2 month low at 1075.20… On the charts, we have come back and tested what had been the upper RESISTANCE in October… So now we have the old […]

Both stock indexes are holding firm today, with the S&P500 posting a fresh new 14 month high and the Dow within 80 points or so of its 14 month high at 10566.
Fundamentally, US stocks got some better news today, as existing home sales rose.
Time will tell, though if this is for real, or just a dead cat bounce. There is still an enormous supply of existing homes out there which have to be dealt with at some point.
To me this is looking like a potential exhaustion point for a housing bubble which took basically 3 years to sloooowly deflate. That being […]

Late last night I posted a comment where I thought the beans might fall out of bed today, and test the 985 level. We did exactly that, and have now bounced 8 cents off that low and are currently at 993 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents on the day. Just last week we were at 1070, so we have broken almost a buck. I still like the 975 support as a place to step in and get long, but you have to have tight stops below to protect against a real flush down to the 955 area.
A lot of traders are banking on Jan […]

In an interesting trade today, both the Dollar index and the stock indexes are moving higher. Conventional wisdom would suggest that there would be an inverse relationship between the two, however, conventional wisdom is just that. The fact is that cash S&P500 posted a new 14 month high this morning at 1,120.27. Its currently at 116.25, but the fact remains that traders went up and took out that old high at 119 which I wrote about last night. I think it was just too tempting a target. For one, there were undoubtedly some short covering stops up there. We took it out by a handle, […]

In an interesting trade today, both the Dollar index and the stock indexes are moving higher. Conventional wisdom would suggest that there would be an inverse relationship between the two, however, conventional wisdom is just that. The fact is that cash S&P500 posted a new 14 month high this morning at 1,120.27. Its currently at 116.25, but the fact remains that traders went up and took out that old high at 119 which I wrote about last night. I think it was just too tempting a target. For one, there were undoubtedly some short covering stops up there. We took it out by a handle, […]

The stronger dollar is pushing the beans and the wheat lower. Technically, Jan beans today slid to an important number, testing the key 1000 a bushell level. I would be careful trying to step in and pick a bottom around here. Just 4 sessions ago, we were 70 cents higher. Have we come too far too fast? That’s any one’s guess. On the charts, there looks to be support around the 985 level, and then if the wheels really come off, there is support at the 970 and then the 950 strike prices. I am actually leaning towards the 970 level, since that would be […]

SP500 cash posted a high today at 1117.68, just 2 handles away from its previous 14 month high at 1119.13. Looking at a weekly continuation chart, we are right where we were in September/October of 2008. The Dow Cash posted a high today at 10,458, just 108 points from its previous 14 month high at 10,566. I still feel that between now and the end of 2009, we will go after these highs, as I wrote this morning.
The dollar rally continues to be something which will weigh on that possibility, but we have held surprisingly tough in these stock indexes despite the rally in […]

SP500 cash posted a high today at 1117.68, just 2 handles away from its previous 14 month high at 1119.13. Looking at a weekly continuation chart, we are right where we were in September/October of 2008. The Dow Cash posted a high today at 10,458, just 108 points from its previous 14 month high at 10,566. I still feel that between now and the end of 2009, we will go after these highs, as I wrote this morning.
The dollar rally continues to be something which will weigh on that possibility, but we have held surprisingly tough in these stock indexes despite the rally in […]