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Tonight I took the advice of friend of mine and made my blog address easier to follow.
its now http://certradervox.blogspot.com/

Easier to remember, easier to type. if you like the site, spread the word
Thanks

Good Trading

Stocks ended lower today, but not substantially lower. Of course, the news line was panic because the Dow was down 1 percent, but with the Dow between 10500 and 10200, is one percent really that significant? I would argue not really. Talk to me when we have some 500 point moves.

Apparently, no one at CNBC or MSNBC or for that matter, any media outlet, took a course in statistics. A one hundred point move when the Dow is at 5000 is much more significant than when its at 10000 or at our old highs in 07- 14,280. All they care about is the “biggest […]

In the Cash Dollar Index, DXY, these are the numbers to be aware of.
The March 09 high was 89.49. Our recent low was 74.23 in November 09, just last month.

That differential is 15.26 points. Half of that move is 7.63 points. Adding 7.63 to 74.23 gives us a 1/2 way back target of 81.86. The 81.85 to 82.00 level is the first stop on the rally train. 78.04 is a 25 percent retracement. Today’s high at 77.94 was extremely close to a perfect 25 percent retracement.

That is all.

Good Trading

Christopher Walken has a funny skit on Saturday Night Live where they re-create the studio recording of Blue Oyster Cult’s “Don’t Fear the Reaper” late 70’s classic. In it, his famous line is “I need more Cowbell, go ahead and really explore the space”.
Well today as the Dollar index posted a new 2 month high, that’s exactly what these grains did. They explored the space and the depths of the recent one month trading range, with a bungee jump ride down to new lows.

In any event, my last post was pretty accurate as to where the SF would find support.
SF Tested […]

Christopher Walken has a funny skit on Saturday Night Live where they re-create the studio recording of Blue Oyster Cult’s “Don’t Fear the Reaper” late 70’s classic. In it, his famous line is “I need more Cowbell, go ahead and really explore the space”.
Well today as the Dollar index posted a new 2 month high, that’s exactly what these grains did. They explored the space and the depths of the recent one month trading range, with a bungee jump ride down to new lows.

In any event, my last post was pretty accurate as to where the SF would find support.
SF Tested […]

With the rise in the US Dollar Index through the 78 level, we are watching the equal and opposite response in the physical commodities. For a few sessions it looked like this relationship would be broken, as grains rallied with the small bounce in the Dollar. However, today we have seen the spread return to a directly inverse relationship. The dollar rally sparked selling across the board in the grains and metals, and crude oil.

What is interesting is the break in the face of much larger than anticipated exports in corn and beans. Fundamentally, we should be a lot higher, based on this demand. […]

Watching the cable business shows this morning, and as I suspected and wrote a few days ago, the talk is abuzz of the “dollar-carry trade unwinding”. As the Swine Flu has yet to turn into a pandemic, and the sub-prime crisis has lost its sex-appeal, this undoubtedly will be what we are inundated with over the next 3 to 9 months.

Also, I continued to be amazed every time the Dow breaks over 100 pts, watching and listening you’d think it was the beginning of the End of Days. A look at the charts shows us the SPZ was on its highs just yesterday up […]

The Markets all breathed a sigh of relief after the Fed held pat and indicated that they would not change rates at this time. There was also indication that the Fed is more worried about unemployment than inflation at this time.

The Dollar Index rallied to settle on an new 2 month high above the 77 resistance level. That opens the door up to a continuing rally up to the 80-82 level. Gold and Silver rallies as well, despite the dollar rally, as evidence that, for now we are in a corrective rally towards equilibrium in both those metals. March Silver rallied to a high […]

So far most of the reaction to the CPI and housing starts has been basically neutral. The actual numbers were both a slightly off of analysts expectations, but so far, the stock indexes and commodities are holding good bids. The Dollar Index is down about 24 ticks, and that seems to be the focus of the trading world’s attention. So far the dollar is below the 77 resistance on the charts, with support right around the 66.65 level. 35 ticks of trading range to consider.

The stock indexes are all near or at their recent 9 month highs. SPZ ia at 1115, on its high […]

Brace yourselves. Just as every tv commentator fell in love with the phrase “sub-prime crisis” over the last 2 years, that is giving away to a new story du jour. All TV personalities are now budding forex trading experts, talking about “the dollar carry trade”. Thank god its kind of an esoteric topic for most people, but believe me, a year from now, everyone from President Obama to the dumbest of the dumb in Jay Lenno’s audience will be able to explain it to you.

Today’s 2 month high in the dollar index at 77.09 according to one reporter, “spooked the market”. Really, a 50 […]