The Grains are all lower in digestive trade after yesterday’s large rally and in the face of the the higher dollar, today. With 92 percent of the Corn in according to the USDA, there remains about 1BB bushells, half of which should get harvested this week. We will have to see the final numbers and weather of not these harvest issues will have long term bullish effects on corn prices. Also we may have seen over this last week, a situation where the large index funds have already re-allocated their crude oil longs into the grains. Or they possibly have done part of their package, […]
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Bounce in Dollar after Inflationary Report
The Us Dollar Index, (DXY) continued to look bullish. Today it has posted a high at the 77.00 level. The high in March was 89.62, the most recent low was 74.94 on Nov 26th. That’s a spread of 7.34 points. Half way back for that spread is 82.28. If we keep this rally going, that’s a very good target for the bulls to shoot for.
Good Trading
Economic Numbers raise spectre of Rate Hikes
With the Dow back at 10500, certain TARP funds being re-paid so banks can bonus out millions and not have to OK it with the Dem’s in Congress, today we got some inflation in the mix. PPI rose more than expected. There are more numbers out this week, and I am not going to list each one. If you’re curious, go to the cme.com web site and click on events calender. They have a nice listing, with times of release, as well as the expected consensus. That’s something I really don’t want to focus my time on.
In any event, the stocks moved lower, on […]
Higher Monday Across the Board as Dollar Ends Slightly Lower
As we anticipate this week of filled with economic data, in general the markets welcomed the Christmas rally. The Dollar finished Monday’s session slightly lower, which supported the grains, metals and stock indexes finished in the green.
On the horizon Tuesday are the beginning of a rash of numbers, along with the first day of the FOMC meeting, which will end Wednesday at 115 with their announcement and minutes. At 730CST we have PPI, Empire State Manufacturing. At 755, the Redbook, at 815 Industrial Production, and at 12pm the Housing index. Any one of these could spike trading volume and set the computer worms […]
Screen looks mixed, as Gold and Silver bounce back from Friday's 1-month lows, and Crude Oil Posts a 2 month low Today at 68.59
This Friday morning the US dollar index is down slightly, at 76.50, but the rest of the screen looks positive.
You have to remember these are holiday markets, and the trade will be thin. The Stock indexes are higher. SPZ had a high at 1114 and a low at 11095. Currently up 2.5 handles, and looking like it wants to challenge the 1116 level. DJZ is above the 10,500 level, with a low at 10498 and a high at 10,510. Not much of a trading range. In fact I did a double take when I checked. The FOMC meeting began today, and we have some […]
Screen looks mixed, as Gold and Silver bounce back from Friday’s 1-month lows, and Crude Oil Posts a 2 month low Today at 68.59
This Friday morning the US dollar index is down slightly, at 76.50, but the rest of the screen looks positive.
You have to remember these are holiday markets, and the trade will be thin. The Stock indexes are higher. SPZ had a high at 1114 and a low at 11095. Currently up 2.5 handles, and looking like it wants to challenge the 1116 level. DJZ is above the 10,500 level, with a low at 10498 and a high at 10,510. Not much of a trading range. In fact I did a double take when I checked. The FOMC meeting began today, and we have some […]
S&P500 high at 1116 gives us another Textbook 50% Retracement
I was curious this evening, being a cold Saturday night with negative 10 windchill, so I looked at the specific numbers for the S&P move, just as I did for the Dow.
The October 2007 high print was 1565.
The March 09 low was 666.79 *How is that for you fans of the Omen movie… 666? Did that get any mention in the media? Kind of creepy…
Any how, the math, thankfully for my small brain, is easy. 1565.15 minus 666.79 gives us 898.36 …… Half of that figure, (the total down move from high tick to low tick) is 449.18…. Add that […]
S&P500 high at 1116 gives us another Textbook 50% Retracement
I was curious this evening, being a cold Saturday night with negative 10 windchill, so I looked at the specific numbers for the S&P move, just as I did for the Dow.
The October 2007 high print was 1565.
The March 09 low was 666.79 *How is that for you fans of the Omen movie… 666? Did that get any mention in the media? Kind of creepy…
Any how, the math, thankfully for my small brain, is easy. 1565.15 minus 666.79 gives us 898.36 …… Half of that figure, (the total down move from high tick to low tick) is 449.18…. Add that […]
A quick comment about the 50 Percent Pullback
Yesterday, I was searching for some more examples of the 50 percent pullback phenomenon as a technical analysis trading tool. The most glaring of these we have just experienced. The high in the Dow Jones as 14,280, The previous low going back to our 2002 lows began the last bull rally. The low in 2002 was 7280.. During the meltdown last year, we had a pause in the sell off at a specific point. That point was at the 10780 level.
Look at a chart, and you will see, we spiked down to that level in Sept of 2008. We had a flurry of […]
Dollar Index Ripples
Today we have seen most of the action coming off of the Dollar Index jump higher. Crude Oil and the Metals moved lower as the dollar moved higher. Surprisingly the grains held their bids in the face of lower crude prices and the higher dollar.
That suggests underlying strength. Perhaps the market is telling us something different than the fundamental supply demand picture is showing.
Running the numbers:
March Wheat has a high of 541 3/4,a a low at 532 and a last trade at 537, unchanged on the day. March Corn has a high at 406, a low at 390 1/2 and a last […]