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I am sure you all know by now that the Dollar Index has popped above key resistance today at the 76.25 level. A conservative technical analysis technique projects out a target upside to the 80.00 level. This is based on a very simple concept, I learned in the Thomas Murphy Book Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets. I highly recommend it to you all.

So, its very basic, but those are the best chart patterns, I believe over time. If I had more time, I could show you many different instances of how effective looking at a 50 percent retracement is a viable strategy. And […]

In these weeks before Christmas, most sensible people are closing their books and looking for a good deal on air fare to someplace warm in January or February, if you’re stuck in Chicago and its -25 wind chill.
However, the TV ‘analysts’ have to pump up something. So… here is some food for thought on what’s on the calendar, and how it may give a ten second shake up of the indexes when each is posted.
Tomorrow, we have retail sales at 730 CST, at 855CST we have Consumer Sentiment and at 9AM, Business Inventories.

All three of these are rife with potential hand wringing […]

No matter how much caffeine the cable news hosts ingests, you can’t make a range bound market ‘exciting’. And we are range bound in these stock indexes. We have continued talk about dollar strengthening, but unless we break above 76.25 and re sume the rally, this could be nothing more than a temporary bounce. The currency issue is the issue of the day, so you have to watch it, no matter what you are trading.

I concentrate on the grains, the metals, crude oil and the stock indexes. Each one of those moves in relation to the dollar fluctuations. Therefore, you have to keep that […]

Ten days ago the dollar index was at the 74.25 level. Today and yesterday, we have been flirting with the 76.25 level. That rally has served to spur “profit taking” some may say, or just a meltdown in prices depending on your perspective.
In the metals, we had had such a run-up, we were over due for this correction.Gold has broken over 100 dollars from its highs as of today’s low at 1,118.10. Silver has lost over 2 cents since it’s foray towards 19.50, with today’s low at 17.13. Crude Oil has now approached the round number target at 70, with today’s low at […]

Whippy Wednesday is living up to its name. To begin with, we’ve had a pull back in the dollar index from the 76.25 area. Overnight, the grains moved whipped lower and then rallied back. Jan beans posted its low at 1035 1/4, which it has yet to test today in the day session. I have been talking about this 30 cent trading range, which we are exploring between 1034 and 1064. Jan beans will be most affected now by the dollar index and the weather forecast in South America. South America is predicting a record crop of over 64 MMT. If there’s any problem with […]

In March of 2009, the dollar index was trading at 88-89. That was the height of the equity melt-down. Since then, the dollar index moved inversely to the equity index prices.. Our recent low at the 74 and change level marked a 9 month, 15 handle move lower. It seems that the dollar has now caught a bid.

For all the reasons out there, the charts seem to be telling us that the dollar punishment is over for now.. So now the question is how high can she bounce. I would look for the simplest of answers. Half way back brings us to the 81 […]

There has been some continued pullback, or profit taking, depending on your mindset.
Its profit taking if you’ve been long indexes since July, or short them from their recent 9-month highs last week. Other wise, its just lower markets, on thin news during the holiday markets.
Apparently McDonald’s less than expected earnings reports is fresh bearish news telling us all how bad the US economy is behaving. Apparently people don’t go to breakfast when they are worried about being fired. What a surprise.

The most important factor today has been the 1 month high in the Dollar Index, driven by short covering from investors who […]

Grains were mostly higher overnight, but have moved lower in sympathy with the outside markets today.
Jan Beans posted a high last night at 1063 3/4, basically the upper limits of its 30 cent sideways trading range for the past few weeks. Overnight the low was 1044, and so far today, that low has held. SF posted a high today at 1055 and is currently at 1044 1/2 down 8 cents. On the daily charts, there isn’t real solid support until the 1034 area and then the 1021 area. Honestly, this looks like a 30 cent consolidation trade, as the market makes up its mind […]

Grains were mostly higher overnight, but have moved lower in sympathy with the outside markets today.
Jan Beans posted a high last night at 1063 3/4, basically the upper limits of its 30 cent sideways trading range for the past few weeks. Overnight the low was 1044, and so far today, that low has held. SF posted a high today at 1055 and is currently at 1044 1/2 down 8 cents. On the daily charts, there isn’t real solid support until the 1034 area and then the 1021 area. Honestly, this looks like a 30 cent consolidation trade, as the market makes up its mind […]

Pretty quiet day, and most likely what we will see through the Holidays.
To begin with, the Stock indexes were flat, ending lower on the day. There was a flurry of activity when the Fed Chairman spoke, but all in all a non-event. The stock indexes are in a consolidation pattern after DJZ rallied over 2500 points from its July lows to last week’s highs.
SPZ rallied over 250 handles over the same time. The market climbed the wall of worry, and was fueled by short covering as bears continued to load up, get slapped and then puke their losers, driving the market higher […]