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A quick update about the importance of the 50 percent retracement. Its simple, easy to remember and it works on long term moves as well as intra-day moves. It is a magnet, and serves as a fulcrum, or the balance in-between the see saw of the market.
Overnight, we had a high in SF at 1034 and a low at 1016. We opened at the half way mark at 1024, tested in twice, and it served as the jumping off point for a nice ten cent move higher. Conversely, if it hadn’t held, it would have been a good spot to flip short, if we […]

It seems that we have some profit taking across the board. After ten to twelve straight days of rally, we were overdue for a pullback. Its a natural ebb and flow, and for now,it looks like it should be a typical market re-trenching. Not so much fun if you just got long and are looking at losses.. Short term or not, losses are no fun, and not why we are trading.
I did some basic technical analysis, my favorite type.
Overnight and so far today we have had lower trade across the indexes as well as the grains.
Support levels should be at the […]

It seems that we have some profit taking across the board. After ten to twelve straight days of rally, we were overdue for a pullback. Its a natural ebb and flow, and for now,it looks like it should be a typical market re-trenching. Not so much fun if you just got long and are looking at losses.. Short term or not, losses are no fun, and not why we are trading.
I did some basic technical analysis, my favorite type.
Overnight and so far today we have had lower trade across the indexes as well as the grains.
Support levels should be at the […]

The Grains could not hold on to early gains. The Wheat finally ran out of buyers at a new high of 583 1/2, then promptly melted 20 cents to settle on its low at 565 1/2.
Jan Beans led the way this morning, posting a new 3 month high at 1049.. It couldn’t get the 1050 print, and then had a gradual melt through the afternoon down to the 1025 level, bounced ten cents higher and then chopped through that ten cent range in the afternoon to finally settle -1/2 cent on the day at 1029.. A definite bearish hook reversal, where we had a […]

This morning we have new highs in the juggernaut that is the metal indexes. Gold at 1,153.40 and Silver at 18.8550… Enough to make Yukon Cornelius from Rudolf The Red Nosed Reindeer start singing that song, “Silver and Gold, Silver and Gold”.
I think we will see the indexes continue to drift higher, not necessarily sky rocket higher, more of this drift higher. Be ware of the downdrafts in the gold contract immediately in the face of new highs and the round numbers, ie 1,160, 1,175, etc.
I also imagine there will be some sell pressure when Silver pops up to 19 bucks the first […]

Overnight Asia trading pushed gold to a new high at 1,149.60 and silver to 18.8850. Higher prices beget higher prices.
We had more buying overnight in Soybeans, as SF jumped 15 cents to settle at 1045. Charts have resistance at the 1050 and 1066 level. Impressive creeping rally, with few pullback opportunities. Just a veritable freight train higher. Corn and Wheat less sympathetic, only gainin 3 and 2 cents, respectively to settle at 405 1/2 and 577 1/4.

Stock indexes pushed to a new high, but just broke on the early 730 number.

Good Trading

Gold and Silver have bounced to new highs so far in overnight trading. Gold has a new high print at 1,144.70 and Silver has a new high print at 18.51. I imagine European and Asian Traders will take this bullishness and run with it overnight, with resistance in these metals spotty at best. I would also look for sudden down drafts if any bears can get a handle on things. It wouldn’t be surprising to see ten or even fifteen dollar down drafts in the face of new highs. That has been the pattern over the past 5 weeks with each new record high.

Looking […]

Years ago, in the 1980’s a group of commodity traders in Chicago were targeted in the pit for illegal trades. I can’t remember exactly how many but at least a half dozen traders were fined, banned from the business, or actually went to the grey bar motel for breaking the “rules”… Open outcry trading was about transparency and market price discovery through an open auction.
The rules specifically prohibited brokers disclosing orders above or below the market to any traders in the pit, because that individual trader would then have had an unfair advantage with such prior knowledge.
Also, they were punished for pre-arranged trades, […]

Jan beans flirted with the long-term bearish trend line which extended all the way back to this Summer’s highs in June at 1103. In the last six trading sessions we have rallied 80cents from our 1- 1/2 month low at 952 just a week ago to today’s high at 1031. On the charts we have resistance now at 1050 and 1068.
In the Corn, we had similar action around its long term bear trend line as well, with 403 1/4 being the intersection today. For the afternoon we poked above it by a cent, but then settled below it at 401 3/4… Not as convincing […]

Wow, it was like watching paint dry, to have the SF go through that 1014 3/4 level…Once it did however, we had a nice pop up to 1021 level…Now that trend line resistance should become trend line support.
I have found that the most basic of technical analysis is usually the best, and this was a perfect instance.
I must say, I was surprised that we didn’t trade more around that trend line, but the day still has an hour and a half left, so we will see.
Over all, the action today has been relatively quiet, except for the grains.

Of course we […]