Uncategorized

Third Quarter GDP rose 3.5 percent, the first rise in 2 years…Econ 101 teaches that is the first sign a ‘recession’ is ending…Initial Unemployment claims were another 500K though, leading me to repeat what Hank Cashin said a few weeks ago, sooner or later there won’t be anyone left to lay-off, so of course that number is going to stop accelerating to the down side..

We have seen a bounce in all the markets today as a result…Crude has bounced 2 bucks, gold 7 dollars, beans are up 12 cents and corn and wheat have followed with 5 cent and 8 cent bounces as well…The […]

Crude has been under pressure again on an off through the day…we have traded as low as 7723 in the front option.. This put beans under pressure early, along with the corn and beans… If you read the post I wrote last last night, I talked about 961 being a band of support on the daily charts…We traded as low as 959 and change, then snapped higher early in a nice whipsaw that punished early shorts.

Typically those chart points are good for 2 or possibly 3 bounces… at which point they are totally violated lower, or serve as a new low from which […]

I just took a look at the longer term weekly charts for Corn, Wheat and Beans…Looking for Support in the wake of the recent 3 day retracement fueled by Index Fund Selling… On the SX charts to begin with, there is s band of support, first and foremost on the daily chart between 961 and 938 *as of this writing, we already had a flush down to the 968 3/4 level*.

A pullback down to the 940 level wouldn’t really be terribly surprising, and it may be necessary to clear out weak longs, get the psychology bearish, and then flip bullish and whipsaw the new […]

I just took a look at the longer term weekly charts for Corn, Wheat and Beans…Looking for Support in the wake of the recent 3 day retracement fueled by Index Fund Selling… On the SX charts to begin with, there is s band of support, first and foremost on the daily chart between 961 and 938 *as of this writing, we already had a flush down to the 968 3/4 level*.

A pullback down to the 940 level wouldn’t really be terribly surprising, and it may be necessary to clear out weak longs, get the psychology bearish, and then flip bullish and whipsaw the new […]

A trader I have great respect and admiration for had a comment today about the recent fund selling… This individual has 35 years experience in the business, and was one of my first mentors in the business. When I walked into the Soybean Pit in 1994 he took me under his wing, pointed out some patterns which, quite frankly, helped me get over a few patches were there were days I had no rhyme or reason for the trade at that time.

In any event, he pointed out today that it was odd that the index funds had announced that October 19th was going […]

Some bullish news in stocks today, some bearish.. On the bullish side, IBM decided to buy back its shares at 2 times the rate it had planned..Seems they think the market is on sale here… On a bearish note, consumer confidence, measured by a private firm, fell to 47.7 down from and expected 53.1 percent, showing that the US consumer isn’t too enamored with what the future may hold currently.

Also bearish was US steel’s third quarter of losses reported today… Its stock fell a quick 6 percent on that news…Its comforting to know that McDonald’s is doing well selling burgers to the world, but […]

Some bullish news in stocks today, some bearish.. On the bullish side, IBM decided to buy back its shares at 2 times the rate it had planned..Seems they think the market is on sale here… On a bearish note, consumer confidence, measured by a private firm, fell to 47.7 down from and expected 53.1 percent, showing that the US consumer isn’t too enamored with what the future may hold currently.

Also bearish was US steel’s third quarter of losses reported today… Its stock fell a quick 6 percent on that news…Its comforting to know that McDonald’s is doing well selling burgers to the world, but […]

Grains today luffed off bullish fundamental issues, with all of the rain impacting harvest and quality of the corn and beans coming in, and decided, int stead to focus on the rebound in the US Dollar…The commodity funds took their cue and put on their selling hats today, selling thousands of contracts of Corn and Beans and Wheat…

Only once or twice was there a small 5 or 8 cent rally in the beans today, just enough to suck in some bottom pickers before returning to the sell mode…Beans Wheat and Corn all settled lower, with SX down 19 1/2 cents at 986 1/2, CZ […]

The Dow has seen already today a 200 point trading range, with the 10000 level being the top and just a few minutes ago, with DJZ trading down to the 9800 level…Talk of a dollar Short squeeze has fueled this action today, with Crude oil trading around the 78 dollar mark when only last week it was at 82 and change, with people, myself included, looking for 90 dollar a barrel oil just in time for Thanksgiving driving weekend…

It just goes to show that often times people’s opinions are well worth fading in the short term… Longer term, and by longer term I mean […]

Crude Oil is currently getting spanked, trading around the 78 dollar level..I wrote last week that perhaps a 13 dollar rally in 17 days was a little unsustainable… Also I noticed that my friendly neighborhood gas station jacked prices from 266 to 286 just to get ahead of the curve… I wonder if today, they’ll drop it to 266 again, somehow I doubt it…

In any event, the stronger dollar is having an inverse affect on the oil, and indirectly on the grains… Perhaps OPEC better hurry up and have some more secret meetings with China Russia and France about dropping the dollar as the […]