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Overnight we received surprising export demand numbers for wheat at 767MM tons. Corn and Beans were rather tepid with 522 and 451 respectively… However, a cheaper dollar, as I have written before, means the world is shopping at KMart, and our grains are a blue light special, which will mean increased demand… Prices will rally until the supply/demand curve is adjusted for the scenario of a US Dollar Index melting to new lows.

Currently WZ is up 12 cents, CZ is up 8 cents and Nov Beans blew up 24 cents, slicing through the 935 level, posting an inter day high so far of 938…

Gold futures tested it all time high at the 1059 this morning around 815 CST where it was met with a healthy slap in the face, breaking a quick 14 bucks down to 1044.. We have since made what looks like a v-bottom on the 5 minute chart, and are currently looking at 1056 level.. 3 bucks off the highs…

Certainly the news sentiment is extremely bullish, so that to me is a wary point..I can’t remember anytime when people like Regis and Cathy Lee were right about anything other than the price of a first class ticket from NYC to Rome… Honestly, my opinion […]

The grain markets closed in Chicago, all slightly higher across the board, with some fresh buying support coming in the day after a sharply higher day yesterday…

Generally though, trade was choppy and saw light volume… We continue to await the Big Freeze coming Sunday…

If it materializes, it could impact between 300MM and 600MM bushels of corn, as we are still in harvest mode.. With a crop over 13Billion Bushels, though, it should really have a negligible long term affect on the overall supply picture…

While CZ settled today at 359 3/4, there is still a lot of resistance (thirty cents worth) which […]

A trader I know from the CBOT, Vincent Di Bennidetto, used to like to call a volatile Wednesday Whippy Wednesday, and that is most likely what we’ll see today..
In the beans, we opened around 912, quickly posted a low down at the 905 level, bounced to 915 and then have bounced between 912 and 906 for the last hour or so..

With a relatively narrow 9 cent range so far, today looks like consolidation trade.
Many people probably either covered shorts yesterday, or initiated fresh longs on the dollar scare yesterday, as well as the freeze warning for this Sunday night…
Barring any […]

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Today, after this mornings higher opening in SX at 901, the market traded higher, did a small head fake lower, rallied to 920 and then bounced between 910 and 915 for most of the afternoon..At one point CZ was almost limit up, but moved lower into the close… Weather forecasts continue to call for wet and cold, with a hard freeze this Sunday..

Such a hard freeze would lower yields, but the fact remains, its a 13Billion plus crop.. Unless we have a scenario like the 2004 Science […]

The US Dollar is crushed overnight, along with fresh talk of a Sunday Night freeze on the way which could damage the Corn crop, (although with a crop coming in at 13.1BB of Corn, the freeze would have to be massive to have long term affect on corn prices)

Over night, we saw new developments as Australia broke ranks with G20 and began tightening of their rates…Perhaps this is all that was needed to start a fresh round of selling of the US Dollar…. Cheaper dollar, creates demand for our grains..
Strong gains overnight in all the grains, with November bouncing of that 884 level […]

Typically after a large move down, like we had on Friday in the Grain complex, the following session or perhaps 2 sessions witness a short term correction in the overall trend. So, Today, we saw exactly that in the Grain Complex, Beginning with the Nov Beans, we went down, “explored the space’ around 880, rallied back about 20 cents got within 3 cents of the 900 level, then reversed and moved down to about the middle of the range, unchanged at 885.

Now we have a situation where 900 beans will be resistance on the upside. Until we settle well above that level, I […]

Typically after a large move down, like we had on Friday in the Grain complex, the following session or perhaps 2 sessions witness a short term correction in the overall trend. So, Today, we saw exactly that in the Grain Complex, Beginning with the Nov Beans, we went down, “explored the space’ around 880, rallied back about 20 cents got within 3 cents of the 900 level, then reversed and moved down to about the middle of the range, unchanged at 885.

Now we have a situation where 900 beans will be resistance on the upside. Until we settle well above that level, I […]

This morning has seen a bit of firming in the November Bean Contract. The 880 level, although breached with a low of 878, held and we bounced back to the 890-893 level. I personally think we will spend a little time here in the 880’s digesting the trade. It is a short week though, with Columbus day here in US, so that should compress and moves. I think the targets below are the options strike prices, 875, 850 and then 800.

Similarly for Corn and Wheat, these higher bounces are most likely selling opportunities to take advantage of. The key is to not be […]