Currently we have poked our collective head above that daily trend line on top of the March Dow Futures… As we get ready for tomorrow’s un-employment number, its really no surprise. It truly is a coinflip tomorrow as to weather we power on to new highs, or take a cliff-dive, base jump from these heights.
Below is the corresponding formation in the S&P500. I realize most speculators like the S&P, but in my opinion, both indexes need to be watched together.
Dueling Trend lines in the Dow and S&P500 Set up for a "Coin-Flip Friday"
Currently we have poked our collective head above that daily trend line on top of the March Dow Futures… As we get ready for tomorrow’s un-employment number, its really no surprise. It truly is a coinflip tomorrow as to weather we power on to new highs, or take a cliff-dive, base jump from these heights.
Below is the corresponding formation in the S&P500. I realize most speculators like the S&P, but in my opinion, both indexes need to be watched together.
Head Fake costs the Perma Bears 600 pts
Do you think people were looking at that lower trend line on this pennant formation in the Dow ? Monday they really go after it to the downside, we posted a fresh 3 month low, then the algo traders caught all the week shorts off guard and ran them out to the tune of 638 points! We could very easily spike above the upper trend line next, with no guarantees the algo traders won’t nail the weak longs and slam it lower after a test of 17,800. Friday’s un-enjoyment report […]
Bottoming Out – Traders Exclusive – Chris Robinson talks about watching the money flow. In grains there are multi month lows.
Dow Snaps back from 3 month low yesterday morning
Yesterday morning there was a lot of bearishness about to start the new month. March Dow futures fell to a low of 16,972. Why is this significant? The previous low on the charts had been 16,974 posted December 16th. Ironically, that low sparked a 7-session, 1256 point rally to the record high 18051 on Dec 26th! Once again, the bears got caught watching the negativity and fear by watching too much TV. Today’s high, so far has been 17495 533 points in the rear view mirror. That’s a lot of $ to lose if you were short in the hole for the last 24 hours. […]
Here is a chart that shows S&P percentage swings are not that unusual
Here is the S&P Chart covering the same time period. The October low was 1805. That’s a 1 year low. S&P futures then rallied to 2088.75 on Dec 26th and again on Dec 29th. That’s 283 Handles, or 15.6 %….. In 2 months… This parallels the move in the Dow that I sent earlier. 1980.71 is the 38% retracement of this large move. 50% pullback takes us to 1947.22 62% pullback takes us to 1913. Any one of these “corrections” would not be out of the ordinary. They would be large numbers, yes…. But percentage wise, they would not be out of the ordinary.
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Here is a chart that shows S&P percentage swings are not that unusual
Here is the S&P Chart covering the same time period. The October low was 1805. That’s a 1 year low. S&P futures then rallied to 2088.75 on Dec 26th and again on Dec 29th. That’s 283 Handles, or 15.6 %….. In 2 months… This parallels the move in the Dow that I sent earlier. 1980.71 is the 38% retracement of this large move. 50% pullback takes us to 1947.22 62% pullback takes us to 1913. Any one of these “corrections” would not be out of the ordinary. They would be large numbers, yes…. But percentage wise, they would not be out of the ordinary.
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Why 300 point moves are to be expected in this environment
In October of 2014 we dropped to a low in Dow futures at 15,743. That is a one year low for the index. Between October 13th and December 26th, the Dow rallied 2,310 points… 15% in 2 months. We are at key technical levels which all traders, be they technicians or fundamental traders are familiar with. They may not admit it to their clients, but they are aware of these key pullback levels. 17,170 is 38% Retracement of that 2-month 2,310 point rally. 16,900 is the 50% Retracement of that 2 month, 2310 point rally. 16,624 would give us a 62% retracement. These levels are […]
Money Flow Vs Mother Nature
Corn: March corn settled down 1-1/2 cents at $3.70 which is a fresh 3-month low settlement. New crop December corn settled down 2 cents at $4.00 ¾, ending the week just above the psychologically important $4.00 level. For the week, March corn lost 27 ¼ cents while December dropped 25 cents. Corn was under pressure all day but managed to bounce slightly in the last half hour of trade. This looked like end of week/ end of month covering, rather than the beginning of a new bull move. With corn down 25 cents on the week it wasn’t surprising to see traders who were short […]