For the Dow, we have a 5 1/2 percent correction from the record high posted one month ago at 17,279. Note the 8-month trend line again I have highlighted. That intersection point today is 16564. That level offers a decision point for both bears and bulls. Is there another 4 1/2 percent to the down side? If you think so, the only way to play it is to sell rallies, or buy the 15,500 puts. The S&P futures took out the August low by 2 points, and then buonced. That […]
For the Dow, we have a 5 1/2 percent correction from the record high posted one month ago at 17,279. Note the 8-month trend line again I have highlighted. That intersection point today is 16564. That level offers a decision point for both bears and bulls. Is there another 4 1/2 percent to the down side? If you think so, the only way to play it is to sell rallies, or buy the 15,500 puts. The S&P futures took out the August low by 2 points, and then buonced. That […]
Volatile markets generally are signs of tops. Swinging 3 to 4% a day is difficult to catch, and can lead to a lot of whipsawing ans second guessing. If you are day trading the S&P or Dow, you must lower your bet size and raise your stops. The S&P has support at 1918 and the Dow has support at 15,582. Buy it against those pivots, but be ready run fast if it rolls over. As for the Grains: I’d be a seller of rallies in front of the USDA tomorrow at 11.00. Some week one options are the cheapest way to play the market either […]
The newest sport seems to be bear hunting the stock indexes. The S&P Futures already blew through the 62% retracement and then some last week. today’s low at 1918 gives us a double bottom there. since its only 10:17 its anyone’s guess if that holds. If it fails the next support on the charts is 1915, then 19.00 Moving over the the Dow. Today we got the 62% RT of the 1100 point rally which began in August. for now its a 4% correction off the highs in the Dow and approaching a 5% correction. Sentiment seems bound and determined to lean on this market. […]
This is the most volatility I’ve seen in the Stock Index futures for a long while. And I know of what I speak. Back in the late 1990’s we had regular 200 to 300 point trading ranges in the day session. We would explore that trading range sometimes 2 or 3 times in a day. To see a few sessions now of 200 plus trading ranges, we may be moving, finally into a topping cycle in the Dow. I emphasize MAY. We got our triple in the S&P, but not quite a triple in the Dow. That target remains 19500. But maybe 17,280 is as […]
This is the most volatility I’ve seen in the Stock Index futures for a long while. And I know of what I speak. Back in the late 1990’s we had regular 200 to 300 point trading ranges in the day session. We would explore that trading range sometimes 2 or 3 times in a day. To see a few sessions now of 200 plus trading ranges, we may be moving, finally into a topping cycle in the Dow. I emphasize MAY. We got our triple in the S&P, but not quite a triple in the Dow. That target remains 19500. But maybe 17,280 is as […]
This is a huge crop. Harvest is going slower because its so big. We are behind historical rates of progress for harvest at this time of year. Typically we don’t see a harvest low until we are at least 50% harvested. That looks like its going to be 10 days away. Right now it costs 6500 dollars to rent a rail car in the Dakota’s to move grain. That’s a huge basis to fight. So what’s a farmer to do? I’d sell into any decent rally. CZ rallied to 3.34. Any punch up to 3.45 to 3.50 would be a harvest miracle, in my opinion, […]
Nothing like hind sight trading to keep you humble. Yesterday it looked like the market might run down in anticipation of the Unemployment report today. Yesterday’s low missed a perfect 62% retracement of the 1,134 point rally from the August lows. I have to admit I thought we were going to take out that retracement yesterday and then test that 7-month old T-line. So much for having the big idea. In the end, my analysis from two days ago was the correct one. Another dip to buy. 16711 was a key 50% retracement. 16578 would have been the next target. Yesterday’s low came within 10 […]