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Trade Update Post USDA

Posted on by Chris Robinson

The WN 700 put purchased for 20 cents is now trading at 33 as of  9:07 AMCST.
The SN 1400 put is back to being worth 10 cents after paying 13.
The CN 5.00 put  purchased for 10 is trading at 15.

The funds are long 160K beans and 260K corn.  In my opinion, the rubber band got stretched way to far to the bull side.
A sharply lower settlement today could set off another 2 days of liquidation.  Unlike most speculative traders,  professional fund managers do not hesitate to exit losers.

Its early in the day, but if you have more than 3 […]

Pre-USDA at 11AMCST

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Sentiment is bullish pre-number.
Every producer I speak to is not concerned about lower prices. Typically, with CZ near 8-month highs,  SX holding near 10-month highs and WN at a 10-month high,  who could blame them.

With the funds long and with sentiment cautiously bullish,  this might be a good time to head the opposite of the herd.
A July Corn 5.00 put for 10 cents a bushel is a good risk reward for the next 42 days.

A WN wheat 720 put for 20 cents a bushel is a good risk reward.

A SN bean 1400 put for 13 cents  or a 14.30 puts […]

Mother Nature or Mother Russia?

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Written by Chris Robinson

Corn: July corn settle down 7 ½ cents at $4.99 ½, which is a 2 week low settlement December settled down $4.94, also a 2 week low settlement. Corn posted its high during overnight trade, dropped a quick 7 cents in the first fifteen minutes of trade, grinded lower through the afternoon. The funds sold an estimated 9,000 contracts of corn. The mid-day weather forecast called for less rain and warmer temps, across the Northern plains and the Western Corn belt which should provide a […]

Hedgers :9-month high for November Beans

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Corn: May corn settled up 5 ¾ cents at a 3-week high settlement of $5.07. However, this settlement was only ½ cent below its 7-month high settlement, posted on April 1st. December corn settled up 3-1/2 cents at 5.06 ¼, also a fresh 3-week high settlement. This settlement in the December was also just ½ cent below its 7-month high settlement, posted on April 4th. For the week, CK gained 12 ¼ cents while CZ gained 9 ½ cents. This week was notable because we saw corn post 1-month […]

Turnaround Tuesday – Traders Exclusive – Chris Robinson talks about the Grains, options expiration on Wednesday, and the issue with the Chinese trying to resell grain.

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Turnaround Tuesday – Traders Exclusive – Chris Robinson talks about the Grains, options expiration on Wednesday, and the issue with the Chinese trying to resell grain.

The Weekend Fear Trade didn’t work too well

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Stock indexes holding in there after a weekend of non-action and more lead flying in the Ukraine.
Obviously, the market has made the rational decision that the likely hood of NATO or the US EVER putting boots on the ground in Ukraine is about as likely as Richard Nixon running for President in 2016.

What is interesting is the failure of the trend-line  in Gold.
And ,  finally the failure of the wheat market to hold its “risk premium” that had built up over the last few weeks on Ukraine worries.
Apparently, the Easter Bunny left the hard data in trader’s baskets yesterday,  reflecting the […]

The Weekend Fear Trade didn't work too well

Posted on by Chris Robinson

Stock indexes holding in there after a weekend of non-action and more lead flying in the Ukraine.
Obviously, the market has made the rational decision that the likely hood of NATO or the US EVER putting boots on the ground in Ukraine is about as likely as Richard Nixon running for President in 2016.

What is interesting is the failure of the trend-line  in Gold.
And ,  finally the failure of the wheat market to hold its “risk premium” that had built up over the last few weeks on Ukraine worries.
Apparently, the Easter Bunny left the hard data in trader’s baskets yesterday,  reflecting the […]

For all the hooplah, The Dow is in a 20 week, 1300 pt trading range

Posted on by Chris Robinson

With the Dow at 16,000, is a 1300 pt trading range that ridiculous?  I don’t think so.  That’s plus or minus 8%.  4% up, 4% Down.
Looking at the chart below,  since 11/7/13, roughly the last 5 months, we’ve been between 15,500 and 16,500.  Call it really a solid 1,000 pts. 
Granted in February, we dove below 15,500,  which got the bears on the warpath.  I distinctly remember people calling for Dow 14,800.  Which would have been the much anticipated holy grail of the “10% correction”.  Super bears were touting a break of 3200 pts, taking us down to 13,300?
One thing is for sure,  YMM is trading sideways,  […]